Why One NFL Draft Pick Could Make or Break an Entire Franchise’s Future

Yet you could make a case that the pre-draft “QB1” hasn’t been the best QB in any of the last 4 draft classes (Ward vs. Dart a toss-up).

Nvm dating back even further.

— Sosa Kremenjas (@QBsMVP) March 24, 2026

Looking at the consensus big boards and top quarterback drafted from the past 10 years:

2025: Cam Ward / Cam Ward
2024: Caleb Williams / Caleb Williams
2023: Bryce Young / Bryce Young
2022: Malik Willis / Kenny Pickett
2021: Trevor Lawrence / Trevor Lawrence
2020: Joe Burrow / Joe Burrow
2019: Kyler Murray / Kyler Murray
2018: Sam Darnold / Baker Mayfield
2017: Mitchell Trubisky / Mitchell Trubisky
2016: Jared Goff / Jared Goff

Last season, Ward was the consensus top quarterback and was drafted first overall by the Tennessee Titans. However, Tyler Shough ended second in Offensive Rookie of the Year voting and Jaxson Dart was fourth. Caleb Williams had a good second year, but Drake Maye just led the Patriots to the Super Bowl and Jayden Daniels looked very impressive as a rookie. Five of the other eight quarterbacks aren’t on the same team that drafted them.

There are obviously a lot of reasons for why that is. Had Sam Darnold entered a better situation as a rookie, is he thought of differently than he is currently? What if Caleb Williams had started his career with Ben Johnson? Situation matters for quarterbacks almost more than any other position. Too often, quarterbacks are set up to fail because of poor team infrastructure whether it’s a bad head coach or offensive situation not ready for a rookie quarterback.

Bringing this back to Ty Simpson and the Los Angeles Rams to an extent, Simpson may be the consensus QB2 behind Fernando Mendoza, but which quarterback is going to be set up more to succeed? The Las Vegas Raiders are set up better than they have been in previous years, but they still have a first-time head coach and their best wide receiver is a tight end. Jack Bech and Tre Tucker are the Raiders’ top wide receivers. Ashton Jeanty was an exciting prospect, but he averaged just 3.7 yards and his 53.4 percent stuff-rate was the highest in the NFL. Mendoza is also going to be expected to start right away. That’s not to say that Mendoza can’t or won’t succeed, but a lot more will be asked of him.

Now, let’s say the Rams are the team that selected Ty Simpson. Simpson will be entering an offensive infrastructure with Sean McVay as the head coach, a top-three wide receiver in Puka Nacua, and arguably the best running back duo in the NFL. That’s not to mention that Simpson would get the benefit of sitting behind Stafford for at least a year and wouldn’t need to start right away. The experience that Simpson is lacking, he would get in mental reps and live reps in practice.