Why the Chiefs and Cowboys’ Scoreboards Might Surprise You This Season

When the Chiefs and Cowboys clash on Thanksgiving at 4:30 ET, you have to wonder—is this the game that really tells us who’s worth rooting for in this maddeningly balanced NFL season? The Rams parade as favorites, the Patriots shine untested in the AFC, and everyone else? Well, they’re shimmering somewhere in the fog of uncertainty. The Chiefs, once untouchable, now look a little more human, and Patrick Mahomes—still a magician—doesn’t quite have that snapback swagger from years past. Meanwhile, the Cowboys’ defense, once a sieve, seems to have found some patches since the trade deadline, hinting maybe they’ve got a pulse worth betting on. Can Kansas City steamroll Dallas in their house, or will the Cowboys prove the skeptics wrong and keep playoff hopes alive? It’s a Thanksgiving showdown that has me scratching my head and betting on the unexpected—it’s all about the little things this year, isn’t it? Dive deeper into the evolving drama of this matchup and why the under 52.5 might just be the safer play. LEARN MORE.

Chiefs vs. Cowboys, 4:30 ET

If you ask someone who their choice is for the Super Bowl this year, there are really only a few answers that look like they make sense at the moment. The Rams look like the best team in football. The Patriots look really good in the AFC, but aren’t tested, and then there are a bunch of other teams that you could mention, but I’m not sure you want to put money on. Each sport looks for parity, and the NFL has it this year, but that is also causing confusion. That confusion brings me to this game, as what are we supposed to make of the Chiefs and Cowboys who play the middle game on Thanksgiving.

The Chiefs are one of the most confusing teams in football this year. They were, and if you want to say still are, on a dominating run in the AFC. This season they look like mere mortals. Patrick Mahomes, who was considered an MVP candidate, looks good, but not quite the dominant player he was in his first few seasons. The defense looks good, but not quite as great as they were in the past few years, where they were essentially winning games for Kansas City. There are a lot of things that just look and feel off. Does that mean you want to count them out? Absolutely not. But, at 6-5, and just 1-4 away from Arrowhead, there is certainly enough reason to doubt this team. They don’t really have a great win over anyone. Sure, they beat the Colts last week, but it took overtime. They beat the Lions and Ravens, but I’m not sure that’s a big deal. The biggest issue is that they are losing a lot of the one-score games that they’ve beaten in the past. This should be a game to showcase Mahomes because he gets to face one of the worst defenses in the league…

I say that the Cowboys are one of the worst defenses in the league, but the reality is that since the trade deadline, they’ve actually been pretty decent. Can you say for certain that everything is fixed and this team will be a true contender? I don’t personally think so. Also, it isn’t exactly like they’ve played great teams in the past two or three games. They lost at home to the Cardinals in a game that I was correct about, but also a game that saw their offense sputter even with a bit of improvement from their defense. Then, after their bye week, they held the Raiders to just 16 points. In fairness, the Raiders offense probably can only score 16 points against a college team at this point, so not overly impressive. Last week, the defense locked in after going down big, and the Cowboys climbed back to beat the Eagles. Now they are sitting at 5-5-1 with a chance to at least potentially sniff the playoff hunt.

If you take away the success of the Chiefs for the past few years, and focus solely on this year, I find it a bit hard to believe that Kansas City is a favorite in this game. Can they travel into Dallas, a place where the home team tends to do better, and win? Sure. Can they cover the game as well? Sure. But do you want to put your money on it? I personally don’t. I expect this game to be much tighter. The Chiefs will gameplan fairly well for the passing game, and the Dallas defense has improved. I’m backing the under 52.5. I do lean to the Cowboys covering here, but I’ll stick with the total.

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