Why the Padres Might Be the Dark Horse Underdogs No One Saw Coming in 2026
Last season’s lack of power continues
The only player projected to have a better season than last year is Jackson Merrill. Every other position player is worse or about the same in assessing their performance. While projecting Luis Campusano, Nick Castellanos, Sung-Mun Song and Bryce Johnson as the bench players, none of them have an fWAR above 0.8.
Miguel Andujar is the platoon partner for Gavin Sheets or the DH and his fWAR is 0.6. No Padre position player has an fWAR above 5.4 (Fernando Tatis Jr.) while many are between 0.5 and 1.5. Tatis Jr. is projected to lead the team with 30 homers.
Pitching woes
The starting pitchers fair no better. Michael King will only get 161 innings with a 3.68 ERA. Nick Pivetta takes a big step back with a 3.92 ERA and Joe Musgrove gets a 3.89 ERA projection. There is no belief in Randy Vasquez at 4.79 and Germán Márquez is the projected fifth starter with a 5.03 ERA.
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