Why the Washington Commanders Could Be Facing Their Toughest Season Yet: 8 Unexpected Challenges Ahead

How did the Washington Commanders sneak in and become football’s version of the ultimate comeback story? Led by rookie sensation Jayden Daniels—NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, no less—and steered by Dan Quinn, a coach with a rebooted résumé, Washington didn’t just defy expectations last season; they crushed them, vaulting past a projected 5.5-win surplus into a stunning 2025 NFC Championship appearance. But here’s the kicker—are the Commanders poised to ride this wave all the way to the Super Bowl, or is last season’s magic simply a mirage? As enticing as their Cinderella story is, the signs of impending regression loom large—think tougher schedule, draft picks yet to fully blossom, and a defense that’s more sieve than fortress. So, could this be another sports fairy tale destined to fade under pressure? Or might Daniels really be the real deal walking on water? Let’s dive into why the Commanders might stumble this time around—and which smart bets to make when fading the hype. LEARN MORE.

Behind 2024-25 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, QB Jayden Daniels, and first-year, retread head coach, Dan Quinn, the Washington Commanders were the most surprising NFL team last season. Not only did they exceed their projected win total by 5.5 games, but the Commanders made it to the 2025 NFC Championship.Â

With that in mind, the betting markets expect Washington to be a Super Bowl contender this season. Unfortunately for the Commanders’ faithful, more signs point to them regressing this season rather than remaining an elite team. Here are reasons Washington could fall short of expectations this year, followed by two bets fading the Commanders.Â

I’m only discussing reasons 1-4 because #5, #6, and #7 are self-explanatory, and #8 is the one I’m the least confident in. Credit where credit is due: Daniels had the greatest rookie season for a quarterback in NFL history, which I didn’t expect. Daniels was my third-ranked quarterback in last year’s draft behind Chicago Bears QB Caleb Williams and New England Patriots QB Drake Maye.Â

Nonetheless, I’m sticking with my guns and predicting Williams and Maye will have better careers than Daniels, who “walked on water” last season. Yet, since I could be wrong and Daniels might be the truth, I’ll factor that into how I’m betting the Commanders will regress next year, which I’ll detail below.Â

This will sound like some “hater sh*t,” but Washington got dumb lucky last year and was 8-4 in one-score games. This included a 21-18 win over the New York Giants, who were missing their kicker, in Week 2, that crazy walk-off, a Hail Mary win over the Chicago Bears in Week 8, and a three-point win vs. the Philadelphia Eagles with backup QB Kenny Pickett playing most of the game.Â

Even Washington’s playoff run was fluky. The Commanders upset the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23-20 in the 2025 NFC wild-card game with a 20% post-game win expectancy, per FTN Fantasy. Then, Washington knocked off the 1-seed Detroit Lions 45-31, who were missing several key defensive players, including NFL Defensive Player of the Year frontrunner, Aidan Hutchinson. Â

This dovetails into the section below, but the Commanders converted 20-of-23 (87.0%) fourth-down attempts last season. Washington’s record in one-score games would’ve been worse with a slightly worse fourth-down conversion rate. Ultimately, the Commanders “ran like gods” and will likely regress to the mean this year.Â

Speaking of “regress,” typically, you want to fade teams that go from an easy schedule to a difficult one, teams with good injury luck the year prior, and teams with unsustainable conversion rates. The Commanders check all three boxes. Per FTN Football, they are going from the 12th-easiest schedule in 2024 to the second-toughest this season.Â

It’s almost like the NFL schedule-makers bet Washington’s Under, too, since it has the third-worst net rest advantage in 2025, according to Warren Sharp. The Commanders have four games vs. teams coming out of bye weeks, an NFL-high, and their Week 12 bye is negated because their opponent, the Denver Broncos, is also coming off a bye.Â

Meanwhile, Washington ranked fifth in adjusted games lost to injury last year, a.k.a. “good health luck”. We saw Daniels take some big hits last season, and he was even knocked out of a game by the Carolina Panthers. Given their difficult schedule, Daniels can’t afford to miss any time this year.Â

On paper, Washington’s defense was mediocre last season: 15th in defensive yards per play allowed and 18th in points per game allowed. However, the Commanders faced the most snaps vs. backup quarterbacks and quarterbacks ranked 30th or worse in EPA, per the Clevanalytics. When you adjust for opponent, their defense ranked 23rd last year, according to FTN Fantasy.Â

The Commanders signed pass rusher Von Miller July 21, who is a future Hall of Famer, but is also washed. He hasn’t had 10+ sacks in a season since 2019. Washington swapped edge rusher Dante Fowler, who had a team-high 10.5 sacks last year, with Deatrich Wise Jr., whose career-high is 7.5 sacks. I.e., the Commanders will have a bottom-10 pass rush next season.Â

They replaced two-time Pro Bowl interior lineman Jonathan Allen with Javon Kinlaw, who was a bust for the San Francisco 49ers from 2020-23, and the New York Jets last year. He played on the same defensive line as Nick Bosa in his four years with San Francisco. If Kinlaw can’t produce alongside Bosa, I doubt he flourishes in Washington’s defense.Â

Furthermore, the Commanders were 28th in yards per rush allowed last season, and three of their four starting defensive backs had a below-replacement-player grade at Pro Football Focus. Hence, Washington’s defense will have a tough time getting off the field, and its secondary will get carved up by the better quarterbacks it’s facing this season.Â

Washington’s offseason acquisitions of WR Deebo Samuel and LT Laremy Tunsil don’t move the needle. Samuel is a physical ball-carrier with a lot of miles on his legs, and the Niners trading him suggests Deebo is past his prime. Tunsil is still a good blocker, but he led tackles in penalties last season, and the rest of the Commanders’ offensive line sucks.Â

For whatever reason, their front office hasn’t offered Pro Bowl WR Terry McLaurin a contract extension at the time of writing, Â and he has requested a trade. While I’m sure Washington and McLaurin will ultimately agree to a new contract, this unnecessary turmoil is alarming. The Commanders should be spending like crazy while Daniels is under his rookie contract, not penny-pinching.Â

The NFC is deep, and I could see any team from the NFC North and NFC West making the 2025-26 postseason. So, the Commanders could miss the playoffs with 10+ wins. Plus, the “win total” betting markets aren’t “sharp,” and teams usually exceed or fall short of their win totals by a large margin. There’s a long-tail outcome where Washington nose-dives this season.Â

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