Why This Decisive Game Could Make or Break the Yankees’ Season—And No One Saw It Coming

There’s something oddly soothing about sports betting losses when they don’t define your livelihood—call it emotional insulation or just plain perspective. After a rough night watching the Bucks unravel in Game 5, my baseball picks were the balm that kept the frustration at bay. So here we are, hoping to keep the momentum rolling with the Yankees taking on the Orioles tonight. Now, you’d think after more than a century of baseball, someone would’ve seen back-to-back-to-back opening homers happen twice in one season, right? Nope. The Yankees pulled off that jaw-dropper not once, but twice this year—and belted four solo shots in the first inning just yesterday. The offense has shrugged off expectations of a slump, sitting high in runs and homers, while their pitching, though not flawless, holds firm enough to make you pay attention. On the flip side, Baltimore’s been stumbling hard—recent results, bench strength, and even their bullpen have all slipped into a troubling funk. Sure, the Orioles want this win more, but desperate isn’t always the same as destined. I’m leaning on the Yankees to edge out tonight’s rubber match, probably under the radar but confidently edging forward. Just the kind of game where baseball’s firsts keep surprising us—and maybe, just maybe, keep us sane amidst the wild swings of fate and fortune.

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Yankees vs. Orioles, 6:35 ET

I really don’t get too angry about sports betting losses. Betting isn’t my sole source of income, so maybe that plays a contributing factor for it. Long losing streaks bother me, but I try and stay pretty even-keeled in most situations. I got really angry about a loss last night in a play I probably never should’ve made anyway with the Bucks pissing away Game 5. The only thing that calmed me down was that my baseball plays won yesterday. Let’s try and keep me and you happy with another win on the Yankees vs. Orioles game.

It seems almost improbable, but there are still a lot of things that are still happening for the first time in baseball. With a rich history, and one of the most storied franchises, you’d think everything has already happened, right? Wrong. Yesterday, the Yankees led off the game with back-to-back-to-back home runs. This was the second time they’ve done that THIS SEASON. That’s the first time that’s ever happened where a team has done that twice in a season. Even crazier is that the team had four solo bombs in the first inning alone. The Yankees offense was expected to take a step back from last season, but they seem to be doing just fine. They are second in the league in runs, and first in homers. The pitching staff has done well too, posting a 3.66 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. In tonight’s rubber match, they send out Carlos Carrasco to the mound. He is 2-1 for the season with a 5.26 ERA, and a 1.36 WHIP. Carrasco has been okay for the team, but has allowed eight runs in 8.1 innings. Orioles hitters are batting just .244 against Carrasco.

The Orioles were on the other end of that new piece of Yankees history. Baltimore has struggled this season. For two years, they looked great and the future looked good. However, this has been a tough start to the season with the team having an 11-18 record for the year. They are just 6-7 at home, and 5-11 on the road, so it isn’t like they can claim a rough start in one situation over another. Their offense and their bullpen – both calling cards of their success over the past couple of seasons have disappeared. The bullpen is one of the worst in the league, and the offense is near the bottom. They’ve lost four of their past five games and could really use this one as a boost in order to claim a series victory over a divisional foe. Cade Povich is just 1-2 for the season with a 5.04 ERA and a 1.72 WHIP. Povich is probably pitching a bit better than his numbers indicate. His worst game was against the Reds when he allowed seven earned runs over 3.1 innings. Outside of that start, he has allowed seven earned runs in 21.2 innings. Yankees hitters have only faced Povich in 10 at-bats but Aaron Judge is 1-for-1 with a homer, and Anthony Volpe is 2-for-4. 

I wouldn’t say this is a huge game for either team. It is far too early, but I do think the Orioles could use a win more than the Yankees. Needing a win isn’t the same as being on the correct side. I do like to fade teams the day after a big offensive output, but the Yankees are capable of it at basically any time. I feel like this game probably goes under, but I think the Yankees pull it out and prefer to play New York over the total. 

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