Why This Playoff Showdown’s High Stakes Point to a Surprising Under Outcome

Ever notice how in baseball, just when you think you’ve got the rhythm, the game throws you a curveball—sometimes literally? Yesterday, I was cruising with some wins, feeling good, only to have that under 4.5 runs bet bite the dust before I could finish typing why it was a sure thing. If that’s not a cautionary tale for today’s matchup between the Reds and Cubs, I don’t know what is. The Reds are quietly turning heads in the National League, cruising above .500 with a real shot at the playoffs, while the Cubs are grappling with hurdles—from unfortunate trade deadline misses to a coach’s nightmare misstep at first base. With Andrew Abbott firing a dazzling 8-1 on the mound for the Reds and young Cade Horton trying to hold the fort for Chicago, this showdown feels more like a playoff opener than a late-season game. So, here’s the question: Can the Reds keep their hot streak alive, or will the Cubs finally shake off their recent funk? Let’s dive in and see if we can beat the odds yet again. LEARN MORE.

Reds vs. Cubs, 2:20 ET

Yesterday was a winning day on the diamond for me, but it was not a sweep unfortunately. I suppose I shouldn’t be too picky, winning days are better than losing ones and we just need to keep winning. My loser was over basically quicker than it took for me to write the article about why I thought it would be a winner. The Athletics absolutely pounced on MacKenzie Gore, and the under 4.5 runs bet was toast before the Nationals even got a chance to hit. I’m hopeful the same fate doesn’t follow us today as the Reds battle the Cubs.Â

The Reds are sneakily making some noise in the National League. It was hard to believe that the American League Central was one of the deepest last season, but this year it might be even more shocking that the National League Central is the best. Cincinnati seemed like they would be a decent team, but they are already at 60 wins, and with 50 to go, they should find their way above .500 by the end of the year. I think the Reds are likely to push for a playoff spot, but ultimately will fall short. Just a guess, though. They’ve played well this series, however, with wins in the first two games of the contest. They’ve held this supposedly great Cubs offense to just three runs in the two games, too. Today they get a guy who is having a phenomenal season on the mound, Andrew Abbott. Abbott has a great 8-1 record with a 2.15 ERA, and a 1.11 WHIP. He has had a few tough games, but for the most part has only allowed a run or two in each contest. He has already faced the Cubs twice this season, allowing seven hits and only one earned run over 12.2 innings.Â

If you’re a Cubs fan, this has been a bit of a torturous stretch. After the team decided not to do anything significant at the trade deadline, the one guy they did trade for hurt his shoulder. Then, Dansby Swanson missed first base on a game-tying single. Now they’ve dropped two straight to a team that is in their division. To make matters worse, Milwaukee just keeps winning baseball games. The Cubs are now four games back in the division. I gave out the Cubs at 13:1 to miss the playoffs, and it is looking like it could be more and more possible, considering that other teams are improving and they seem to be regressing. They are sending out Cade Horton to the hill this afternoon. Horton has been solid with a 5-3 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP, but they kind of treat him with “kid” gloves. He doesn’t work too deep into games, having completed six innings just three times this year. However, two of those came at home, where he has been very good – a sub-two ERA. Only Ke’Bryan Hayes has taken swings against Horton.

This should be a pretty entertaining game and matchup between two teams vying for the postseason. The Reds are probably the hotter team at the moment, but I would be a bit surprised to see the Cubs get swept here. They have been pretty good about now losing three to an opponent. I’m going to take the risk and back the under 7.5. Both pitchers are throwing well, and the first two games have been strategic and playoff-like. Back the under.Â

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