Why Today’s Cubs vs. Cardinals Game Could Surprise Everyone Despite Low Scoring Expectations

Ever notice how baseball can throw these wild, almost surreal moments at you—like a leadoff homer right after a beloved player passes or weird numercial coincidences that make you scratch your head? Those flashes of magic are exactly why I fell for this game, starting with a Cubs vs. Cardinals matchup that stuck with me. Today, these two rivals are back at it again, and honestly, I’m hoping this bet captivates me just the same. The Cubs sit perched on a slim but sturdy lead, nursing a pitching staff battered by injuries but buoyed by some hopeful returns. Meanwhile, the Cardinals, sneaky as ever, are inching back into playoff contention, mirroring the Cubs stat for stat but with less firepower. So, who’s got the edge when these nearly twin teams clash beneath the summer sun? I’m leaning toward a low-scoring, tightly-contested game—with the Cubs’ bullpen ready to steal the show. Ready to dive into all the gritty details and betting angles?
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Cubs vs. Cardinals, 2:15 ET

Baseball has some really beautiful moments. You can look on TikTok, YouTube, or even Instagram to find one of the many moments where there are compilations of the spectacular games and moments. Some of them seem too amazing to even be real – like a leadoff homer after a former player’s death, or the uniqueness about numbers matching a player’s number. There are a lot of reasons to fall in love with baseball. For me, the first time I fell in love with the sport was my first game as I watched the Cubs play the Cardinals. They square off again today and I hope I fall in love with this bet, too.

The Cubs are one of the best teams in baseball, but they have some work that needs to be done. The team is 14 games above .500 and in first place of a division that is looking like it might be one of the most competitive of the year. The team hits for a good average, and they have plenty of pop to carry them over when needed. The pitching staff is good, but has had a lot of injuries that they’ve needed to navigate. They will need to figure that out by the trade deadline, but I’m not sure how many good arms will be available. Today they get back one that was on the injured list and his return could make a major impact. Shota Imanaga was a great player for the Cubs last season, but he hasn’t pitched since early May. For the year, he has just 44.2 innings, but he has only allowed 14 earned runs in that span. Most of those are coming via the longball as he has already allowed seven homers this season. This will be the first time that Imanaga faces the Cardinals this season, but he has held them to just eight hits in 37 tries over his career.

The Cardinals are slowly creeping back up and into this playoff race. They are a real threat to take over the Cubs glory as the first place team in the division. I don’t particularly love anything about the team, but they are playing good baseball. If you look at their stats, as a team, they are basically identical to the Cubs with a few obvious areas for improvement. They are both hitting .255 for the season. Both pitching staffs are throwing around a 3.90 ERA, and have a WHIP at roughly 1.26. Opponents are even hitting .250-ish against them. They do have 50 fewer runs scored and 37 fewer homers than the Cubs. Still, this team has been very strong and looks like they will add at the deadline. Andre Pallante takes the mound today with a 5-3 record, 4.48 ERA, and a 1.31 WHIP. Pallante has two starts this season where he hasn’t allowed an earned run, one against the Phillies, and one against the Reds, both at home. He has allowed three or fewer earned runs in 11 of his 15 outings. Cubs hitters are 10-for-33 against Pallante. 

I’m not sure that I love a side in this game, but I do like the Cubs. They are looking to get a split for the series which is all they could hope for after dropping the first two games. It is likely Imanaga only goes a few innings then they turn it over to the bullpen. The Cubs pen is one of the best in baseball, so that’s not a bad thing. Pallante has had a couple rough outings, but I think he is reliable enough to keep the score fairly low. Back the under 9.5 in this one.

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