Will Miami’s Momentum Freeze or Ignite a Stunning Upset in Pittsburgh?
With just three weeks left in the 2025 NFL season, Monday Night Football isn’t just another game — it’s a defining moment. Picture this: the Miami Dolphins, who looked down and out back in October, have somehow clawed their way back to relevance, riding a four-game winning streak that might just save their coach’s job and keep playoff dreams alive. Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Steelers, favorites according to the Opta supercomputer, are shoring up their lead in the AFC North, but not without whispers about their future and the absence of star linebacker T.J. Watt. So, the big question looms — can Miami defy the icy odds and keep their momentum going in frigid Pittsburgh, or will the Steelers tighten their grip on the division? Let’s dive into the stats, the key matchups, and the cold-weather challenges that could tip the scales in this high-stakes showdown. LEARN MORE.
The winning team on Monday Night Football will receive a boost to its playoff hopes with just three weeks remaining in the 2025 NFL season. The loser will likely need help and could hear more clamoring for leadership changes.
Dolphins vs. Steelers: The Key Stats
- The Steelers are favorites over the Dolphins on Monday Night Football, with Pittsburgh winning 73.4% of simulations by the Opta supercomputer (as of Sunday).
- Aaron Rodgers is tied for the league lead with eight fourth-quarter touchdown passes, and his 104.8 passer rating in the fourth ranks sixth. Tua Tagovailoa’s four-quarter passer rating is 69.8, ranking 38th out of 39 qualified quarterbacks.
- With his recent surge, De’Von Achane has achieved his first 1,000-yard rushing season and has averaged 5.68 yards per carry over his 41 career games. The only player with a higher rushing average through 41 games is Lamar Jackson (5.81, minimum 10 rushes per game).
At the end of October, it looked like the season might as well be over for the Miami Dolphins.
Miami fell to 2-7 after a 28-6 loss to the Baltimore Ravens in Week 9, and nationwide observers assumed it was all crashing down. Head coach Mike McDaniel’s seat was hotter than ever, and most pundits were looking for a replacement for quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.
The Dolphins responded with a stunning 30-13 win over the Buffalo Bills in Week 10, and they haven’t stopped rolling. They’re on a four-game winning streak that may have provided job security for McDaniel and Tagovailoa, while also putting the team back in the playoff hunt.
While their subsequent wins over the Washington Commanders, New Orleans Saints and New York Jets weren’t as impressive, that blowout win over a contending Bills team appears to have set the tone for the second half of the season.
The 6-7 Dolphins’ next test is projected to be another tough one in the AFC North-leading Pittsburgh Steelers, who followed a different path to playoff contention in Week 15.
Pittsburgh (7-6) opened the season 4-1 and appeared to be among the AFC’s contenders. The 2-5 stretch that followed, however, was a rude awakening for a fanbase yearning for a return to the Super Bowl.
Some have even called for the team to move on from longtime head coach Mike Tomlin. Those murmurs were silenced – for now, at least – with last week’s 27-22 road win over the Ravens that gave the Steelers a one-game division lead.
Even more encouraging was the performance of Aaron Rodgers, who threw for a season-high 284 yards and a touchdown, including five completions of 25 or more yards.
The Steelers will enter Monday’s crucial game without seven-time Pro Bowl linebacker T.J. Watt after he was hospitalized this week with a partially collapsed lung.
Watt complained of discomfort while breathing after practice on Wednesday and was admitted to the hospital. He has since undergone surgery to repair his lung, and he has been ruled out for Monday’s game.
The winning team on Monday will receive a boost to its playoff hopes with just three weeks remaining in the regular season. The loser, however, will likely need help to make the playoffs and could hear more clamoring for leadership changes.
Dolphins’ Key to Victory vs. Steelers
On the schedule, the Dolphins’ Week 15 opponent is the Steelers. But they will also be battling the elements on Monday night.
Some weather trends in the NFL can be overblown, with each team dressing 46 players from countless different backgrounds and experiences.
The Dolphins, however, seem to have trouble playing in the cold, and the kickoff temperature on Monday is forecasted to be below 20 degrees Fahrenheit.
Dating back to the 2016 season, Miami is 0-13 when the kickoff temperature is below 40 degrees, including the postseason. Those struggles include some duds from current quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.
Tagovailoa is 0-5 in his NFL career, including the playoffs, when the kickoff temperature is below 40 degrees. He has six touchdown passes and five interceptions in those games for a passer rating of 78.8. The Dolphins have lost those games by an average of 19.2 points.
Tagovailoa’s last cold-weather game, however, was his best, statistically. In Week 13 last season, he threw for 365 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions in Green Bay, but the Dolphins still lost 30-17.
Dolphins Player Projections
- QB Tua Tagovailoa: 22 of 33, 229 yards, 1 TD
- RB De’Von Achane: 15 carries for 79 yards, 1 TD
- WR Jaylen Waddle: 5 catches for 78 yards
- TE Darren Waller: 2 catches for 25 yards
The best news for the Dolphins is that their current four-game winning streak has been fueled by a commitment to the running game, which typically travels in December.
The Dolphins are 5-1 this season when De’Von Achane runs for at least 85 yards. They are 1-6 when he rushes for fewer than 85 yards. Rookie Ollie Gordon has also seen more work in the latter half of the season, giving Miami some power to complement Achane’s speed.
The Dolphins are running better and more often over the last month, and their 48.4% rushing success rate over the last four games is higher than any team’s season-long success rate, run or pass.
This focus on the run culminated in last week’s 34-10 win over the New York Jets, in which Miami rushed for season highs of 239 yards and three touchdowns on 41 carries.
The bolstered running game has also made things easier for Tagovailoa, whose 14 interceptions are tied for the most in the league.
In Miami’s first nine games, the team had a 41.0% success rate on play-action concepts. That number has spiked to 58.8% over the last four games.
Continuing to successfully run the ball will be crucial against a Pittsburgh defense that is below league average in both rushing success rate allowed (39.9%) and rushing explosive rate (5.5%).
Malik Harrison, who has been cleared to play (concussion), will have to be accounted for, as he leads all middle linebackers in the NFL with a 76.8 run-defense rating.
Steelers’ Key to Victory vs. Dolphins
Rodgers may be coming off his best game of the season, but Pittsburgh’s offense remains inconsistent. The Steelers picked up only 13 first downs in last week’s win over the Ravens, and two of them were awarded via penalty.
Pittsburgh’s 284 net passing yards were a season high, but the effort was preceded by passing games of 159 and 108 net yards.
The running game has also been up and down. After a season-best 186 rushing yards in Week 12 against the Chicago Bears, the Steelers followed with rushing games of 58 and 34 yards.
One element of Pittsburgh’s offense that has been consistent is a relatively conservative approach.
The Steelers have attempted 33 passes of 20+ air yards all season, with only four teams attempting fewer. Going deep has also been fairly unsuccessful, with Pittsburgh’s 72.4 passer rating on attempts 20+ yards downfield ranking 23rd.
This season, 69.2% of Pittsburgh’s passing yards have come after the catch. That’s the highest rate since YAC started being tracked in 1995.
Despite the offseason addition of DK Metcalf, the Steelers have a hard time stretching the field, but they have compensated by developing an excellent screen game.
Pittsburgh ranks third in the NFL with a 41.2% success rate on screen plays this season and screens could be key to staying on schedule against a Miami defense that has allowed 6.5 yards per screen pass – the fourth most in the league.
Although Miami is a blitz-heavy team, it might want to rethink that approach Monday night. Rodgers has been consistently great against the blitz throughout his career – and this year is no exception.
Steelers Player Projections
- QB Aaron Rodgers: 19 of 29, 176 yards, 1 TD
- RB Jaylen Warren: 15 carries for 72 yards, 1 TD
- WR DK Metcalf: 4 catches for 51 yards
- TE Pat Freiermuth.: 2 catches for 22 yards
Pittsburgh opponents have blitzed on 24.0% of snaps, which is the third-lowest rate in the league, and the Steelers have thrown an NFL-low 81 passes against the blitz.
Miami’s defense, however, blitzes at the third-highest rate in the league (43.5%) and has had 140 passes thrown against their blitzes, giving up a 98.9 passer rating.
Teams don’t often change philosophies midseason, so if Miami decides to bring the heat, Rodgers could find some openings in the Miami secondary.
Dolphins vs. Steelers Prediction
There are very few games in the regular season that are truly must-win, but Monday’s showdown might as well be a de facto postseason game.
The Opta supercomputer gives the Dolphins less than a 1% chance of making the playoffs entering the weekend and falling to 6-8 on Monday would likely seal their fate.
The Steelers’ division lead gives them a 77.3% chance of making the playoffs (as of Sunday), but they lead the Ravens by just one game with a Week 18 rematch still waiting.
Two of Pittsburgh’s last three games are against division foes, and the other is a road game against the Detroit Lions. A loss on Monday could signal the beginning of a collapse.
The Opta supercomputer gives the Steelers a 73.4% probability of coming out on top at home.
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The post Dolphins vs. Steelers Prediction: Can Miami Keep Its Hot Streak Going in Frigid Pittsburgh? appeared first on Opta Analyst.
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