Highlights

2025 MLB Playoffs: Which Surprising Teams Will Dominate by Memorial Day?

Can we finally say that the Detroit Tigers are for real? Or that the Baltimore Orioles are experiencing a fall from grace like we haven’t seen in quite some time?

By the unwritten rules of the baseball calendar, we can say all of it. But we’ll also explain further as we go through how our projection model sees the division races playing out the rest of the way.

Our projection model incorporates each team’s TRACR, win-loss record and strength of schedule to calculate an expected run differential per 27 outs, which is used to simulate the remaining schedule and produce our predictions.

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