2026-27 NBA Season Preview: Which Underdogs Will Shock the League and Rewrite the Playoff Map?

With the 2026-27 NBA season tipping off to great anticipation, the Opta supercomputer is jumping ahead with predictions of wins and playoff potential of every team.

Sequels are all the rage, but the NBA has a lot to live up to this season.

Can the league top a season that saw Jalen Brunson help bring the New York Knicks their first NBA championship since 1973 in one of the closest Finals of all time? One that saw the new best player in the league knock off a team that appeared primed to go back-to-back like their star did in the MVP balloting. One that saw multiple future Hall of Famers on the go at the trade deadline.

How about arguably the best player of all time heading to a team that hasnât made it out of the second round of the playoffs since Allen Iverson dragged it to the Finals in 2001, joining another star player obtained via a shocking trade with their biggest rival?

Or a player who finished in the top four of MVP voting in seven straight years joining a Miami Heat team that lost in the play-in tournament last year?

Or Kawhi Leonard returning to the Toronto Raptors to see if they can capture the same magic they did in 2019?

What about the Oklahoma City Thunder, behind MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, reloading for another chance to get past the potential-next-MVP-up, Victor Wembanyama, and the San Antonio Spurs?

Or a rookie class loaded with star power? Or what about a new NBA Lottery system that might lead to less tanking and a significantly better bottom third of the league?

We use our Opta projection model to predict the entire NBA season, using a combination of a teamâs preseason TRACR along with their schedule and team variance. A teamâs preseason TRACR is calculated by using the DRIP ratings of all players on the team, along with projected minutes and team performance from last season.

The data updates all season on our NBA Predictions page. (These projections are as of Oct. 14.)

Eastern Conference

1. New York Knicks

Projected Wins (an average of thousands of simulations:) 51.5
Playoff Percentage: 88.0%
Preseason TRACR Rank: 3

The defending NBA champions enter the season with most of their rotation back, minus backup big man Mitchell Robinson. Theyâll have to navigate the âDisease of More,â particularly as potential free agents Karl-Anthony Towns and Josh Hart have not received contract extensions prior to the start of the season. Towns finished last season ranked 10th in the NBA in DRIP and was excellent in the Knicksâ playoff run, as his 6.355 playoff VAPR and 3.33 playoff WAR both ranked second to Victor Wembanyama. Jalen Brunson was the NBA Finals MVP.

2. Boston Celtics

Projected Wins: 49.3
Playoff Percentage: 83.8%
Preseason TRACR Rank: 5

The Celtics shocked everyone when they traded Jaylen Brown to the rival Philadelphia 76ers for Paul George and draft picks, but the supercomputerâs projections still view the Celtics as one of the top teams in the league. A full season of Jayson Tatum helps, and George ranks higher than Brown in our DRIP metric and is likely a smoother fit for coach Joe Mazullaâs offense. His biggest issue is staying on the court as he played only 78 combined regular-season games in two seasons with the Sixers.

3. Detroit Pistons

Projected Wins: 48.5
Playoff Percentage: 79.8%
Preseason TRACR Rank: 6

4. Toronto Raptors

Projected Wins: 46.7
Playoff Percentage: 74.6%
Preseason TRACR Rank: 8

5. Miami Heat

Projected Wins: 45.0
Playoff Percentage: 68.9%
Preseason TRACR Rank: 9

The Heat will be tested by the health of their top two players, two-time NBA MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo, as theyâre the only team in the NBA with a pair ranked in the top 10 of DRIP. But they have no other players in the top 100.

6. Cleveland Cavaliers

Projected Wins: 44.4
Playoff Percentage: 67.5%
Preseason TRACR Rank: 10

7. Atlanta Hawks

Projected Wins: 43.3
Playoff Percentage: 62.3%
Preseason TRACR Rank: 13

8. Orlando Magic

Projected Wins: 42.5
Playoff Percentage: 59.1%
Preseason TRACR Rank: 15

9. Philadelphia 76ers

Projected Wins: 42.0
Playoff Percentage: 59.7%
Preseason TRACR Rank: 16

A lack of depth and low minutes projections for LeBron James and Joel Embiid contribute to a spot for the Sixers in the play-in tournament. The supercomputer may be underestimating LeBron, as we have no examples of a 42-year-old All-NBA-caliber player with whom to compare. If he can continue to defy the aging curve, and if Embiid can get closer to his availability from the 2021-2022 and 2022-2023 seasons, instead of the last three years, Philly projects as a top-six team in the Eastern Conference. The key is having everyone healthy for the start of the playoffs as the Sixers try to get past the second round for the first time in “The Process” era.

10. Charlotte Hornets

Projected Wins: 40.9
Playoff Percentage: 54.7%
Preseason TRACR Rank: 18

11. Indiana Pacers

Projected Wins: 35.2
Playoff Percentage: 30.9%
Preseason TRACR Rank: 21

With Tyrese Haliburton returning from an Achilles tear suffered in Game 7 of the 2025 NBA Finals, the Pacers are hoping to get back to that level (they finished 19-65 last season). However, due to the much-improved East, a decrease in depth, and a conservative estimate for how long itâll take for Haliburton to be back to playing regular minutes at an elite level, the supercomputer sees the Pacers as more of a borderline play-in team.

12. Chicago Bulls

Projected Wins: 34.2
Playoff Percentage: 26.6%
Preseason TRACR Rank: 23

13. Milwaukee Bucks

Projected Wins: 32.3
Playoff Percentage: 20.6%
Preseason TRACR Rank: 27

14. Brooklyn Nets

Projected Wins: 29.0
Playoff Percentage: 12.6%
Preseason TRACR Rank: 28

15. Washington Wizards

Projected Wins: 28.1
Playoff Percentage: 10.9%
Preseason TRACR Rank: 30

The Wizards are a popular pick for improvement this season due to last seasonâs additions of Anthony Davis and Trae Young, then the drafting of AJ Dybantsa, but the model just doesnât see it. Davis has played 20, 51 and 42 games in the last three seasons, and Young projects as one of the leagueâs worst defensive players, according to DRIP. Dybantsa will likely take some time to adapt to the NBA and live up to his potential as the No. 1 pick.

Western Conference

1. Oklahoma City Thunder

Projected Wins: 56.1
Playoff Percentage: 94.8%
Preseason TRACR Rank: 1

Despite being upset by the Spurs in the Western Conference Finals, the Thunder enter the season as the favorites to win the NBA title, like their 2024-25 team. Theyâll have to hope Jalen Williams can remain healthy this season, as theyâve lost some of the depth (offseason trades of Lu Dort, Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins) that was so valuable in keeping them elite even as they withstood injuries last season.

2. San Antonio Spurs

Projected Wins: 53.3
Playoff Percentage: 91.5%
Preseason TRACR Rank: 2

Victor Wembanyama enters the season ranked first in DRIP. Our ratings go back to 2012 and he already has the highest defensive DRIP rating in our database. Weâll see if Wemby can top the highest overall DRIP, Steph Curryâs 8.69 from February 2016, as he tries to get San Antonio back to the Finals. The only other players with peak DRIPs higher than Wemby are LeBron James and Chris Paul.

3. Houston Rockets

Projected Wins: 49.6
Playoff Percentage: 84.0%
Preseason TRACR Rank: 4

The Rockets project as a very good regular-season team as theyâre equipped with a lot of depth and young players who have remained durable early in their NBA careers. Their key to playoff success will likely rely on at least one of their young players making the leap from really good to superstar, and for Kevin Durant and other high-level veterans like Fred Van Vleet, Marcus Smart and Steven Adams to remain healthy, especially as Van Vleet and Adams return from serious injuries.

4. Denver Nuggets

Projected Wins: 46.4
Playoff Percentage: 72.9%
Preseason TRACR Rank: 7

5. Minnesota Timberwolves

Projected Wins: 43.3
Playoff Percentage: 63.5%
Preseason TRACR Rank: 11

6. Portland Trail Blazers

Projected Wins: 42.9
Playoff Percentage: 63.8%
Preseason TRACR Rank: 12

7. Golden State Warriors

Projected Wins: 43.0
Playoff Percentage: 63.4%
Preseason TRACR Rank: 14

The Warriors are a high variance team. Last time we saw Jimmy Butler, he ranked sixth in DRIP. If he comes back healthy in early 2027, and if Steph Curry and other older players like Draymond Green, Kristaps Porzingis, Al Horford and DeAnthony Melton can maintain reasonable health going into the playoffs, they could win a series in a Western Conference that lacks the depth itâs had in recent seasons. Potential success could go off the rails quickly, though, without a lot of luck on the health front.

8. Los Angeles Lakers

Projected Wins: 40.9
Playoff Percentage: 53.7%
Preseason TRACR Rank: 17

Luka Doncic goes into the season with the NBAâs fourth-highest DRIP, but the Lakers lack the high-end depth to reach the second level of contenders in the West behind the Thunder and Spurs. Austin Reeves and Walked Kessler are the only other players on the team with DRIP ratings over 2.0 heading into the season.

9. Phoenix Suns

Projected Wins: 40.7
Playoff Percentage: 52.4%
Preseason TRACR Rank: 19

10. Los Angeles Clippers

Projected Wins: 37.4
Playoff Percentage: 39.9%
Preseason TRACR Rank: 20

11. New Orleans Pelicans

Projected Wins: 35.1
Playoff Percentage: 32.1%
Preseason TRACR Rank: 22

12. Dallas Mavericks

Projected Wins: 33.7
Playoff Percentage: 27.4%
Preseason TRACR Rank: 24

The future is bright for the Mavericks with Cooper Flagg, but theyâre likely at least a year away from being a true playoff contender as Kyrie Irving returns from a torn ACL and may not even be on the team anymore following the trade deadline.

13. Memphis Grizzlies

Projected Wins: 33.7
Playoff Percentage: 27.4%
Preseason TRACR Rank: 25

14. Utah Jazz

Projected Wins: 32.4
Playoff Percentage: 20.9%
Preseason TRACR Rank: 26

This could be an example of the supercomputer not understanding the Jazz have different motivation than they did in previous seasons, especially given the changes to the lottery rules. If players like Lauri Markkanen, who has only played 144 games over the past three seasons, can remain healthy, and if their best players actually play in the fourth quarter this time around, they could be a play-in tournament contender.