2026 CFP Bracket Revealed: Alex Kirshner’s Shocking Predictions That Could Upend College Football Forever

There will be twists and turns along the way to the third College Football Playoff. Unless, that is, FBS teams follow Alex Kirshner’s preseason bracket to see how it’s supposed to go.

The 12-team College Football Playoff has been a disaster for preseason predictors.

In the new playoff format’s first two years, 11 of the 20 teams in the top 10 of the preseason AP Top 25 poll have missed the field altogether. Last year, three of the top four missed out. In 2024, the preseason No. 10, Florida State, went 2-10.

Which makes trying to peg the 2026 CFP bracket in August a funny exercise.

I see clear playoff teams, but at least one will flop. Meanwhile, a team outside the preseason Top 25 – maybe multiple teams and not just the Group of 6 conference rep – will make the CFP field. Indiana and SMU did it in 2024, and two non-powers, James Madison and Tulane, did it last year while Vanderbilt (CFP No. 14) was close.

Last year, on my Split Zone Duo podcast, I got too cute with my “great team that will miss the playoff” pick and predicted Oregon would be on the outside. The Ducks wound up being the No. 5 seed, and I wore an egg on my face. This year, I’m sticking with the fundamentals.

You’re probably thinking, “That sounds like evidence that you shouldn’t bother picking playoff teams at all.” But I’m not one to back down in the face of daunting statistics, so here we go with a CFP bracket. And note, nine of the teams are in the top 12 of preseason TRACR (Team Ranking Adjusted for Conference and Roster), Opta Analyst’s opponent-adjusted projection system.

Alex Kirshner’s 2026 CFP Bracket

The First-Round Byes

1. Ohio State (TRACR Rank: 1)

The Buckeyes have the best player in college football (wide receiver Jeremiah Smith), the most proven elite quarterback (Julian Sayin), and enough talent and good coaching not to worry about a defense that lost three of the top 11 picks in the NFL Draft. Same as ever, the question about Ohio State is whether it will have a first-round bye or sneak into the CFP bracket somewhere lower. The Buckeyes are the only team in the country whose playoff chances I’d place closer to 90% than 70%.

2. Georgia (TRACR Rank: 6)

The last time the ’Dawgs finished outside the top nine in the Selection Sunday playoff rankings was 2016, Kirby Smart’s first as head coach. It won’t happen this year, either. Gunner Stockton is unexceptional, but his 82.9% well-thrown ball rate last season was ninth among power conference QBs. With Stockton’s high floor, running backs Nate Frazier and Chauncey Bowens, and a young but experienced line, the offense will keep things on the tracks. With the caliber of defense Smart puts on the field, that makes it really hard to miss the playoff.

3. Indiana (TRACR Rank: 4)

The Hoosiers are turning over their roster, as the last remnants of the core Curt Cignetti brought with him from James Madison in 2024 have finally exited the program. But the thing about Cignetti and his staff is their transfer portal evaluations are beyond reproach, so there’s good reason to think IU will be one of the best teams in the country again. A 16-0 championship season? Maybe not, although this roster continues to get better even now.

4. Texas Tech (TRACR Rank: 7)

Speaking of unimpeachable use of the transfer portal, the Red Raiders are running back much of the roster-building strategy that got them to the playoff last year. As long as QB Will Hammond is decent (the bar Behren Morton met last season), Tech’s superior line recruitment on both sides of the ball should push this team to the Big 12 title. Pay particular attention to edge rushers Trey White from San Diego State (42 pressures a year ago) and Adam Trick from Miami University (53). Neither is last year’s star, David Bailey, but they should give Tech one of the best pass-rushing tandems around.

The Other Cream of the Crop

5. Miami-FL (TRACR Rank: 5)

The Hurricanes might have upgraded at quarterback, swapping out Carson Beck for Duke transfer Darian Mensah. Malachi Toney could be the best non-Smith playmaker in the country, and the defense is stacked at interior lineman, linebacker, cornerback and safety. The losses of two elite edge rushers (Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor) and two star offensive tackles (Francis Mauigoa and Markel Bell) mean Mario Crisotbal has real development work to do at key positions. I bet he’ll figure it out.

6. Notre Dame (TRACR Rank: 2)

This roster has no obvious weaknesses, even though the running back room should step back some without first-rounders Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price (Aneyas Williams, the new guy, is surely good as well.) The best position group is cornerback, anchored by All-American Leonard Moore. On 44 targets last year, Moore surrendered a 22.7% burn rate. Needless to say, that was the lowest mark in the country for a cornerback targeted that often.

Power-4 Teams with Upside

7. Texas (TRACR Rank: 9)

Arch Manning is the Heisman Trophy favorite for the second straight preseason, and Texas has added potential All-Americans at wide receiver (Auburn’s Cam Coleman) and running back (NC State’s Hollywood Smothers). The defense is uber-talented. Will the O-line hold up? It didn’t last year, when Texas’ 40% allowed pressure rate was in the bottom 10 among power conference teams. The Longhorns didn’t go wild in the portal here, either, but they should benefit from the addition of Wake Forest defensive tackle Melvin Siani. On 243 pass-blocking reps last year, Siani gave up a pressure on 4.1% of them, less than half the average for an ACC tackle with 50+ snaps.

8. Texas A&M (TRACR Rank: 15)

Will Marcel Reed ever become a standout downfield passer? Probably not, and his lack of capability in that regard hurt A&M in its first-round playoff loss to Miami (of course, it didn’t help to have Bain and Mesidor chasing him all game). But this is the thing about the Aggies: They’ve built such a meat-and-potatoes program on both lines that they really don’t need a field-stretching passing game to ring up eight easy wins with the potential to get to nine, 10 or 11, if a few things break right. The Aggies lost four starters from a good offensive line, but they’ve recruited well there. The lone returnee is center, Mark Nabou Jr., who’s in his fifth year and projected for second-team All-SEC. There’s a chance every other player on that line, at least for much of the season, is a portal addition. If the line development continues and Reed gets better, this team can win the SEC. But admittedly, we’re in the portion of these rankings where one or two things going wrong could knock a team out.

9. USC (TRACR Rank: 8)

I think this is the year Lincoln Riley gets the Trojans into the CFP. If not, I don’t think he’ll be back for 2027. It’s been a long, often disappointing buildup across five seasons, but my feeling is the Trojans have finally established enough talent on the offensive and defensive lines to allow Riley’s superior skill position development to translate into a real run. A key player here is defensive lineman Jahkeem Stewart, a sophomore who only played one year of high school football and became a situational wrecker in his first season with the Trojans. New defensive coordinator Gary Patterson (yes, that one) will be responsible for getting the most out of him.

10. Michigan (TRACR Rank: 12)

The Wolverines’ disappointing 2025 is inseparable from what we now understand was a disastrous program culture under fired coach Sherrone Moore and outgoing athletic director Warde Manuel. I would guess Kyle Whittingham will run a more productive ship, and that could bring sprawling benefits for QB Bryce Underwood and everyone else. I’m most interested in what should be an improved wideout group to help Underwood. Watch for a big season out of sophomore Nick Marsh, who came on in the second half of his freshman campaign.

11. LSU (TRACR Rank: 18)

This one is a dart throw, with Lane Kiffin having cleaned out and then restocked his roster overnight. LSU has one of the handful of best rosters in the country going by recruiting ratings. The Tigers are going to score, but how much they defend in Kiffin’s first season is a fair question. A key player is sophomore cornerback DJ Pickett, who played well as a freshman and will step into a foundational role with the departure of No. 1 corner Mansoor Delane to the NFL.

The Group of 6 Representative

12. Army (TRACR Rank: 97)

There’s always a vacuum atop the Group of 6 conferences now that most of their rosters get picked clean during portal season. But this year is especially open, considering:

Four of the best teams in the American Conference last year (Tulane, North Texas USF, and Memphis) lost their head coaches to Power-4 jobs.
James Madison, arguably the best G6 team, also lost its coach.
Boise State, once the most-consistent shot for a great non-power team, isn’t the same program this decade (.680 winning%) as it was during the 2000s (.868) and 2010s (.805).

If there were ever a year for a team to come from nowhere and claim the non-power playoff spot, this is it. The preseason media favorite is Navy, which just went 11-2 and will elevate a legitimately exciting QB prospect in the lightning-fast Braxton Woodson. However, I think Navy’s offense will suffer a ton from the loss of one of its best skill position cores in program history, headlined by all-time receiver Eli Heidenreich and running back Alex Tecza.

I see an opening for Navy’s rival, which went 7-6 and lost to the Mids by one point. The Black Knights could have a mauling academy offense this year, with QB Cade Hellums and four offensive line starters (including an all-conference center) back. I’m particularly excited about running back Godspower Nwawuihe, who racked up 171 yards on poor UConn in the Fenway Bowl.

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