2026 NCAA Tournament Predictions: Which Dark Horse Could Shock the Madness and Take the Crown?

We’ve simulated the NCAA men’s basketball tournament thousands of times to find the chances of teams advancing throughout March Madness. Here’s everything we learned.

Could this year’s NCAA Division I men’s Final Four look a lot like last season’s?

The first weekend of April in Indianapolis could wind up feeling familiar to last year’s rare scenario of all four No. 1 seeds advancing to the Final Four. It happened only once before in 2008.

March Madness is often filled with chaos, buzzer beaters and Cinderella runs, of course, but the favorites entering the 2026 bracket look unusually strong. Duke, Michigan, Arizona and Florida arrive as the No. 1 seeds after separating themselves from the rest of the field for much of the season.

We’ve simulated the NCAA Tournament thousands of times using TRACR (Team Rating Adjusted for Conference and Roster), a net efficiency metric that calculates a team’s points per possession on both sides of the ball, adjusted for the strength of the opponent.

TRACR represents how many points per 100 possessions a team is above or below average. An average team is at 0.0, while a really good team might have a TRACR rating of 20 or more. As an example, a team with a TRACR rating of 20 is projected to outscore an average team by .20 points per possession (20 divided by 100) in a game. If the game had 70 possessions, then that team would be expected to outscore the average team by 0.2*70=14 points.

East Region

Duke (32-2) is the obvious favorite to advance out of the East and has the highest probability to win the tournament at 14.5%. The ACC champion’s dominance has been fueled by freshman star Cam Boozer, who leads the nation in both DRIP and WAR metrics. His scoring efficiency, rebounding and defensive presence have made him one of the most, if not the most, valuable players in the country and a major reason why coach Jon Scheyer’s team enters the tournament at No. 1 in TRACR.

We’re not saying Duke will have a walk in the park, by any means. UConn is trying to win its third national title this decade, and most likely will be Duke’s biggest obstacle. UConn is led by tournament veteran Alex Karaban, who was a part of the 2023 and ’24 title teams, even establishing himself as the program’s all-time winningest player (118).

Probability of Making Sweet 16, Final Four

• 1. Duke: 73.3% Sweet 16, 37.7% Final Four
• 2. UConn: 59.2%, 12.7%
• 3. Michigan State: 45.3%, 10.3%
• 4. Kansas: 38.5%, 6.9%
• 5. St. John’s: 50.9%, 11.0%
• 6. Louisville: 34.9%, 7.9%
• 7. UCLA: 27.0%, 4.1%
• 8. Ohio State: 16.0%, 4.4%
• 9. TCU: 10.2%, 1.8%
• 10. UCF: 12.2%, 0.7%
• 11. South Florida: 16.2%, 2.1%
• 12. UNI: 7.1%, 0.4%
• 13. California Baptist: 3.5%, 0.1%
• 14. North Dakota State: 3.7%, 0.1%
• 15. Furman: 1.7%, <0.1%
• 16. Siena: 0.6%, 0.1%

Midwest Region

Michigan, under coach Dusty May, enters the tournament as the Midwest favorite as well as the second-most likely team to win the national title at 14.0%. Yaxel Lendeborg is second in the country in WAR, although the 6-foot-9, 240-pound power forward is nursing a low ankle sprain suffered during the Big Ten Tournament.

Michigan’s biggest challenger is likely to be Iowa State, which is fourth in TRACR entering the tournament, and was the Opta supercomputer’s No. 2 team at the start of the season. The Cyclones’ duo of Joshua Jefferson and Tamin Lipsey go into the tournament ranked second and sixth, respectively, in DRIP – the only team with two players ranked in the top 14. 

Probability of Making Sweet 16, Final Four

• 1. Michigan: 72.7% Sweet 16, 34.6% Final Four
• 2. Iowa State: 66.0%, 21.8%
• 3. Virginia: 50.1%, 10.1%
• 4. Alabama: 53.1%, 11.2%
• 5. Texas Tech: 33.4%, 4.8%
• 6. Tennessee: 36.8%, 6.2%
• 7. Kentucky: 22.0%, 3.8%
• 8. Georgia: 16.6%, 3.5%
• 9. Saint Louis: 10.1%, 1.7%
• 10. Santa Clara: 10.9%, 0.8%
• 11. (First Four) SMU/Miami (OH): 11.0%, 0.9%
• 12. Akron: 8.5%, 0.5%
• 13. Hofstra: 4.9%, 0.1%
• 14. Wright State: 2.1%, <0.1%
• 15. Tennessee State: 1.1%, <0.1%
• 16. (First Four) UMBC/Howard: 0.6%, <0.1%

West Region

Top-seeded seed Arizona enters the tournament as the favorite to advance out of the West and holds the third-highest probability for winning the national title. The Wildcats are one of only four in the field with two players (Brayen Burries and Jaden Bradley) ranked in the top 20 nationally in WAR, a reflection of the balanced roster that has helped power them to the No. 3 TRACR rating.

Purdue could be Arizona’s biggest challenger in the region, also one of the four teams with two players ranked in the top 20 in WAR. Senior guard Braden Smith is third, underscoring his value as one of the most impactful players in college basketball this season, while Fletcher Loyer isn’t too far behind at 12.

Probability of Making Sweet 16, Final Four

• 1. Arizona: 77.2% Sweet 16, 36.5% Final Four
• 2. Purdue: 63.9%, 17.9%
• 3. Gonzaga: 57.1%, 15.6%
• 4. Arkansas: 50.4%, 9.6%
• 5. Wisconsin: 38.3%, 6.3%
• 6. BYU: 26.7%, 4.3%
• 7. Miami (FL): 21.6%, 3.0%
• 8. Villanova: 10.5%, 1.4%
• 9. Utah State: 12.0%, 1.6%
• 10. Missouri: 13.4%, 1.1%
• 11. (First Four) NC State/Texas: 14.7%, 2.2%
• 12. High Point: 7.2%, 0.3%
• 13. Hawaii: 4.0%, 0.1%
• 14. Kennesaw State: 1.5%, <0.1%
• 15. Queens University: 1.1%, <0.1%
• 16. LIU: 0.4%, <0.1%

South Region

While Florida, Houston and Illinois enter the tournament in a virtual tie in overall TRACR, Florida’s No. 1 seed and easier path makes it the favorite to get out of the region and have a chance for a repeat national title.

Houston will be looking to avenge last year’s heartbreaking loss in the title game and is led by senior guard Emanuel Sharp, who’s ninth the nation’s tight DRIP rankings.

Probability of Making Sweet 16, Final Four

• 1. Florida: 71.8% Sweet 16, 28.4% Final Four
• 2. Houston: 60.4%, 17.0%
• 3. Illinois: 64.3%, 21.2%
• 4. Nebraska: 42.1%, 7.7%
• 5. Vanderbilt: 48.3%, 11.4%
• 6. North Carolina: 22.6%, 3.5%
• 7. Saint Mary: 21.7%, 3.1%
• 8. Clemson: 11.7%, 1.2%
• 9. Iowa: 16.3%, 2.8%
• 10. Texas A&M: 16.5%, 2.3%
• 11. VCU: 11.4%, 1.0%
• 12. McNeese: 7.6%, 0.2%
• 13. Troy: 2.0%, <0.1%
• 14. Penn: 1.7%, <0.1%
• 15. Idaho: 1.5%, <0.1%
• 16. (First Four) Lehigh/Prairie View A&M (0.2%, <0.1%

Three Questions

Who Deserved to Be the Final No. 1 Seed?

After getting blown out by Vanderbilt in an SEC Tournament semifinal, Florida’s odds of getting a No. 1 seed appeared to be in jeopardy, but losses by UConn and Houston also that day helped the Gators maintain their spot. But who deserved the last 1-seed according to TRACR?

Iowa State ranks fourth entering the tournament (behind clear 1-seeds Duke, Michigan and Arizona). Florida, Houston, Purdue and Illinois were tightly congested for the fifth to eighth TRACR spots on Selection Sunday. Based on Iowa State’s TRACR ranking, the Cyclones deserved to be the last 1-seed, with Florida, Houston, Purdue and Illinois as 2-seeds. 

Who Has the Toughest Region?

The NCAA Tournament selection committee did a good job of keeping the regions relatively even, as the average TRACR of the South Region is 29.3 for seeds 11 or higher, compared to 29.9 for the Midwest, 28.6 for the West, and 28.8 for the East.

How Balanced is TRACR Seeding?

When grouping TRACR based on seeds, generally a high seed means a better TRACR overall, with the one exception being the No. 5 seeds having a higher TRACR on average than 4-seeds.

This is due to St. John’s and Vanderbilt ranking higher than any 4-seed in TRACR, making them more likely to advance to the Sweet 16 than even Kansas and Nebraska in their respective regions.

Seed: Avg. TRACR

• No. 1: 42.2
• No. 2: 36.9
• No. 3: 34.3
• No. 4: 29.8
• No. 5: 30.6
• No. 6: 28.8
• No. 7: 26.6
• No. 8: 25.3
• No. 9: 24.0
• No. 10: 20.0
• No. 11: 19.1
• No. 12: 13.4
• No. 13: 5.8
• No. 14: 3.1
• No. 15: -0.6
• No. 16: -4.8

As for first-round upset picks? The only two lower seeds to have higher probabilities are 9-seeds, Iowa (54.9%) over Clemson, and Utah State (50.8%) slightly over Villanova.

But if the history of this tournament has taught us anything, it’s that the numbers rarely capture the full madness of March. Yes, upsets, buzzer beaters and unlikely heroes are always lurking somewhere in the bracket.

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