2026 NFL Divisional Showdowns: Which Dark Horse Will Upset Texans-Patriots and Rams-Bears?
Simply put, I have more faith in the Patriots stopping the Texans than vice versa. Keeping in mind that offense is more predictive than defense, New England is fourth in offensive success rate, and Houston is 28th, according to SÅ«mer Sports.Â
Patriots All-Pro Second-Team QB Drake Maye leads the NFL in EPA/play plus completion percentage over expectation (the go-to quarterback state for nerds) and QBR. Texans QB C.J. Stroud is 13th in EPA/play plus CPOE and 12th in QBR.
New England has two good running backs, including the leader in rushing yards over expectation per carry, per the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, Rhamondre Stevenson, and Maye is fourth among quarterbacks for rushing yards. While Houston is 28th in yards per rush.
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