MLB Playoff Chaos: Which Teams Are Rising and Which Are Crumbling at the Memorial Day Crossroads?

That’s still time for that to happen, of course. But not too much time – the 2026 MLB season is flying by.
The projection model foresaw a winning season by the Rays, but the perennially overachieving franchise is 16 wins above their preseason number – more than any team. They’re 23-5 when scoring first, 19-5 at home (welcome back to the Trop) and 9-1 in one-run games while jumping to a majors-best 33-15 (.688) record. Yandy Diaz (.316-8-33) continues to be one of baseball’s more underrated hitters.
The post MLB Playoff Predictions: How the Picture Has Changed at the Memorial Day Marker appeared first on Opta Analyst.

Memorial Day is often referenced as the quarter pole of a season, but that’s a long outdated measure of the schedule. With this year’s earliest U.S. opening day ever on March 26, some teams will be more than one-third of the way through their games by the end of the long holiday weekend.

The Dodgers are getting it done with four-time MVP Shohei Ohtani being way better on the mound than at the plate. Manager Dave Roberts would figure to have everything lined up the way he wants it to be come October – for them, it’s World Series or bust.

The Braves (35-16) have the majors’ highest win total, run differential (+104) and road winning percentage (19-8, .704). Behind Chris Sale, they nip the Dodgers for the top ERA (3.09 to 3.12). They’re also No. 1 in batting average (.266) and only trail the Yankees in home runs (73 to 72). But 2025 NL Rookie of the Year Drake Baldwin just went on the IL, joining their other expected catcher, Sean Murphy, so that’s a concern.

The AL West may have the best divisional race ahead. The probabilities for winning the division are nearly a three-way tie between the Athletics (29.5%), Rangers (29.2%) and Mariners (28.9%). The Athletics are still playing big-league softball with mashers Nick Kurtz, Shea Langeliers and Co. With the M’s, it was going to be hard for the now-injured Cal Raleigh to match his catcher and switch-hitter record of 60 home runs last season, but they never imagined his raw value would be below that number at 58. (See all of the advanced and traditional stats on our MLB Leaderboards.)

The Guardians set an all-time record in coming from 15.5 games behind of the Detroit Tigers to win the AL Central title last season. The two teams were tied for the division lead on May 4 when the Tigers placed ace Tarik Skubal on the IL. Since then, the Guardians have enjoyed a surge, now up 12 on their preseason win projection. Noteworthy, they’re the only team to have the same five pitchers make every start. Meanwhile, the Tigers have gone into a 2-14 tailspin since losing their two-time reigning AL Cy Young Award winner. That includes the Guardians pulling a four-game sweep in the Motor City this week.

Don’t be fooled, the 2026 MLB season is passing by faster than you think.

That’s saying something because the NL has pleasant surprises in the Washington Nationals and Cardinals, who are both +12 in win projection since the preseason. Raise your hand if you knew the Nats lead the majors in extra-base hits (170), runs per game (5.5) and offensive TRACR (0.94). CJ Abrams and James Wood fuel the offense, as their 76 combined RBIs are topped only by the Braves’ Matt Olson and Baldwin with 80. And get to know the Cards as the youngest team in the majors, including breakout star Jordan Walker (.295-13-35).

MLB Predictions: American League

• No. 5 Seattle Mariners (wild card) vs. No. 4 New York Yankees (wild card), winner to play No. 1 Tampa Rays (AL East)
• No. 6 Athletics (wild card) vs. No. 3 Texas Rangers (AL West), winner to play No. 2 Cleveland Guardians (AL Central)

MLB Predictions: National League

• No. 5 San Diego Padres (wild card) vs. No. 4 Chicago Cubs (wild card), winner to play No. 1 Atlanta Braves (NL East)
• No. 6 Arizona Diamondbacks (wild card) vs. No. 3 Milwaukee Brewers (NL Central), winner to play No. 2 Los Angeles Dodgers (NL West)

Similar to the Braves, the projection model was a bit out in front of the Toronto Blue Jays, placing them just outside the projected playoff field in the preseason. After they pushed the Dodgers to the limit in last year’s World Series, they’ll need Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to get back to his playoff form for another run this season.

The Opta projection model does just that by simulating the remainder of the season. It updates after every game by incorporating each team’s TRACR, win-loss record and strength of schedule. TRACR, or Team Rating Adjusted for Competition and Roster, measures a team’s effectiveness at producing and preventing runs to calculate how many runs per nine innings better or worse it is compared to the league-average club during the season.

National League

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The Brewers, well, their roster turnover often makes it feel like they’re getting it done with mirrors. With Jake Bauers slugging away and Aaron Ashby (8-0) leading the majors in wins from the bullpen, there’s a new group that makes you ask, “Who are these guys?” As they chase a fourth straight NL Central title, the Brewers have improved their preseason TRACR more than any team (+1.28) and their preseason win projection the most in the NL (+13).

Follow the projection model as the MLB predictions update throughout the season. For more coverage, follow along on social media on Bluesky, Facebook and X.

The wild-card race should live up to its name. The slow-starting Phillies are surely back in the picture given their 16-5 turnaround under Don Mattingly. Get the Cubs early or don’t get them at all – they have the most wins (22) when holding a lead through six innings and the most walk-off wins (six). The Padres are always in pursuit of the Dodgers, and in this week’s showdown in the NL West, even two-strikeout-an-inning closer Mason Miller dropped some invincibility with a loss. The Diamondbacks, again led by Corbin Carroll, are riding the NL’s longest active winning streak entering Memorial Day weekend.

It’s best to start here because the NL has been much better than the AL. The division leaders are the top three teams in overall TRACR: Braves, Dodgers and Brewers. Not only are NL teams a combined 138-102 (.575) in interleague matchups, the wins are spread around as 12 of the 15 teams in the Senior Circuit are above .500 vs. the Junior Circuit (yes, even the Colorado Rockies).

With the Dodgers in pursuit of a third straight World Series title, everybody everywhere went into the season giving them the highest wins projection. But our model was out in front of betting markets with the Braves, giving them the second-highest projection.

The model doesn’t just project the Rangers will climb above .500 and make the playoffs, it sees them winning the AL West.

American League

Will your team be playing in October? We’re evaluating how the major league season has gotten to this point and using our predictions model to look back to the preseason and to where the playoff picture may be heading.

Here’s an oddity: Despite their losing record, the Rangers are actually one of just two AL teams (also the Guardians) to be above .500 in interleague games (they just need to beat the AL teams more often). A fairly no-name group of relievers leads the majors in bullpen ERA, helping them to an MLB-best seven shutouts and the AL’s second-best overall ERA to the Yankees.

Those Yankees lead AL teams and are fourth overall in TRACR. Cam Schlittler’s 1.50 ERA is No. 1 in the majors and Gerritt Cole is set to return from injury after Max Fried recently was sidelined. You know about Aaron Judge, but it’s Ben Rice who leads the majors in slugging percentage (.644). If there’s concern, the Bombers have played the fewest opponents who entered a game with a .500+ record, and they’re only 8-6 in them.

The projections would fall into these playoff pairings (with seeding):

If the playoffs were beginning on Friday, the Texas Rangers would claim the sixth and final spot in the American League with a sub-.500 record (24-25). Such a scenario is unlikely – in fact, it’s never happened in a 162-game season – so it’s useful to project ahead to the potential changes.

Seven of those teams were projected as postseason-bound in the preseason: The Rangers, Yankees and Mariners in the AL, and the Dodgers, Braves, Cubs and Brewers in the NL. The other preseason playoff projections – the Baltimore Orioles, Kansas City Royals, Houston Astros, New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies – have work to do.

How did we get to Memorial Day weekend? Here’s a quick look back, but also know the boys of summer are already making fall plans.

So, here we are — Memorial Day weekend already, and the 2026 MLB season is cruising by faster than a curveball on a steamy summer night. Are you asking yourself, “Will my team be playing in October?” Trust me, you’re not alone. The early start to this season — March 26, the earliest U.S. opening day ever — means some clubs are already more than a third of the way through their grind. Now, the standings show a mix of the expected and the “wait, what?!” moments — think sub-.500 teams like the Texas Rangers hanging around the playoff bubble, which, let’s be honest, hasn’t exactly happened in a 162-game marathon before. That’s where the magic of the Opta projection model kicks in, crunching numbers like a high-stakes poker game — using TRACR, schedules, and every pitch thrown — to not only forecast who’s heading to the playoffs but who might just shock us all. Buckle up: the race to October is shaping up wilder than ever, and this snapshot could be just the tip of the iceberg.
A check of the standings shows the season is going by form in some places, but there’s been the unexpected as well – both good and bad.