MLB 2026: Shocking Division Dark Horses Set to Rewrite History—Who Will Dominate?

The two-time defending champions aren’t invincible. At this dynastic-cruising altitude, beating them to the division crown might actually be easier than knocking them out in a best-of-seven postseason series. This team will be careful with pitchers like Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow. They will perhaps be proactive about resting aging linchpins like Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman.
Zach isn’t wrong. This division is mildly bonkers. The guess here is the Yankees come out on top in the regular season, a thought that’s based mostly on the pitching staff. You could argue that they have the best rotation in the division with Max Fried, Carlos Rodon (who’s expected back from offseason elbow surgery in April), Cam Schlittler, Luis Gil and Will Warren, and that’s not even including the eventual return of Gerrit Cole and the eventual call-up of Carlos Lagrange, who was incredible during spring training. With strength on the mound and that Aaron Judge fella in the lineup – supported not by an overwhelming complement of bats but probably enough – the Yankees should take the season-long slugfest, barring a couple of injuries.

Forget flipping a coin. You might need dice to properly approximate the unpredictability of the AL East. Any of the five teams could win this division, and four of them seem totally realistic (sorry, Tampa Bay Rays). Ultimately, I’m going to choose depth for the regular season. I think the New York Yankees and Blue Jays have a better case as eventual World Series champions, but the Boston Red Sox are rolling in rotation options and productive hitters. That counts for a lot over 162 games.

Color me crazy, but I believe in the progress Miami showed last season. The Marlins played at about an 85-win pace after the All-Star break, allowing an emerging talent like center fielder Jakob Marsee to stand out. This summer could mix in a fast-rising Kyle Stowers, the potential of newly acquired rookie outfielder Owen Caissie and an intriguing pipeline of pitching prospects headlined by Robby Snelling. There’s enough upside, and enough savvy experimentation, to see an upswing that lands them in October.

The rotation, a strength for years now, is as good as ever. The lineup, fortified by the arrival of Brendan Donovan and the return of Josh Naylor, is better than it has been in many years. The early order of business is trying to get Julio Rodriguez on track quickly; despite significant first/second-half splits – .737 OPS prior to the All-Star break, .902 it – he’s registered three top-seven MVP finishes in his first four seasons. The division should be competitive, and they’ll need him producing all year to finish in first place.

Crizer’s Bold Prediction: Judge will log the majors’ first .500 on-base percentage since Barry Bonds.

In lieu of adding offensive firepower, the Red Sox invested in a barrage of backup for ace Garrett Crochet. Ranger Suarez, Sonny Gray and under-the-radar stuff monster Johan Oviedo join the party alongside several pitching prospects of note.

AL East

Crizer’s Winner: Boston Red Sox

Crizer’s Bold Prediction: The San Diego Padres bullpen logs a collective ERA under 2.50, the best team relief performance since the 2013 Atlanta Braves.

What a difference a year makes. Last spring, the Mariners and president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto were the butt of jokes about low ambition and mediocrity after his 54% comment. Now, fresh off an ALCS run and Cal Raleigh’s thunderous 60-homer season, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Seattle registered baseball’s best record in 2026. Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez and smart addition Brendan Donovan elevate this lineup into the same stratosphere the Mariners’ relentless pitching staff has occupied for a few years now.

So baseball writers Ryan Fagan and Zach Crizer, who have already made MLB awards predictions, are back to gaze into the future of the 2026 season and take their best shot. Below, they pick a winner and dish out a bold prediction for each division.

The names change in Milwaukee, but the philosophy – and more importantly, the result – stays the same. The Brewers have all the pieces for a very Milwaukee rotation, led by flamethrower Jacob Misiorowski and veteran Brandon Woodruff. Chad Patrick was better than anyone outside the division realized last year (3.53 ERA/3.53 FIP), and there’s a reason Brandon Sproat and Kyle Harrison were highly regarded prospects for other teams. Who’s betting against the Brewers unlocking that talent? Not this guy. And that lineup, with Jackson Chourio, Brice Turang, William Contreras and Christian Yelich up top, is excellent.

Look, the downside of picking the Mets is evident. The franchise does very little halfway – a run to the NLCS or beyond or a teeth-gnashing catastrophe seem like the most likely outcomes, somehow. Despite the massive turnover and excess discourse, however, the roster is really good.

Even along the path to the Los Angeles Dodgers’ back-to-back titles – and three overall this decade – there were huge surprises and unexpected challenges. Not least from the Toronto Blue Jays, who rose from spring questions about the viability of their Vladimir Guerrero Jr.-led core to take the Dodgers to the brink in Game 7 of last year’s World Series.

Fagan’s Winner: New York Yankees

In changeup-slinging trade acquisition Edward Cabrera, sophomore star Cade Horton and the rehabbing Justin Steele, this year’s Cubs team should be able to find an actual ace. Plus, Alex Bregman is the rare addition who also offers the tantalizing possibility of elevating other talents. Watch for young hitters like Pete Crow-Armstrong, Moises Ballesteros and even Michael Busch to take steps forward.

A healthier year for starting pitchers Cole Ragans and Kris Bubic, plus any level of progress from an outfield featuring strapping outfielder Jac Caglianone and trade addition Isaac Collins, would give the Royals the look of a real contender.

Opta Analyst’s Projected Winner: New York Yankees (29.5%)

AL Central

Fagan’s Winner: Detroit Tigers

Fagan’s Bold Prediction: The Pittsburgh Pirates finish over .500 for the first time since 2018. I’m not quite ready to say they’ll snag a playoff berth, but there are going to be times when no team wants to play the Buccos in an important series. Facing Paul Skenes, Bubba Chandler and Braxton Ashcraft or Mitch Keller on back-to-back-to-back nights won’t be fun at all. It’s a good thing the pitching staff has a lot of swing-and-miss because the defense will be rough, but the Pirates added some veteran bats (Brandon Lowe, Ryan O’Hearn and Marcell Ozuna), and if Oneil Cruz takes “the” leap this year, the Pirates could be a lot of fun to watch.

The only way to make MLB predictions is to make them boldly. Baseball writers Zach Crizer and Ryan Fagan pick a winner and dish out a bold prediction for each division in 2026.

The only sure thing in baseball is that many expectations will be wrong. A contender will prove to be a pretender. An also-ran will make a run.

This is also still a club with built-in upside. It won’t all click at once this year – it’s the Mets, so it might all hit the skids – but emerging ace Nolan McLean, a healthy Kodai Senga and young hitters like Francisco Alvarez and Carson Benge ultimately give the Mets more paths to 95+ wins than their considerable competition in the division.

Crizer’s Winner: Kansas City Royals

Is it too late to change my division pick?

I’ve stuck with the Milwaukee Brewers in recent years, believing someone is going to have to really take the crown from a franchise that’s constantly finding ways to sustain success. This year’s Cubs team has convinced me to stick my neck out. Jed Hoyer and the front office have finally invested enough in a single year to build a surplus of talent, instead of carefully balancing “now” and “later” on the point of a needle.

What else is there to say about Judge? The three-time AL MVP is a force we haven’t seen since Bonds. We might have never seen it from a right-handed hitter. The only questions are what absurd achievements he’ll muster this year, and whether the squad around him will do enough to make it feel worth it for a club that counts successful seasons in rings.

The Dodgers remain the overwhelming favorite in the division, and for good reason. Opta’s projections peg the Dodgers at 98.9 wins; the Giants and Padres are next at 79.9 and 79.3, respectively. They might not win the division by 20 games, but it won’t be particularly close. 

Opta Analyst’s Projected Winner: Kansas City Royals (34.6%)

AL West

Crizer’s Winner: Seattle Mariners

Fagan’s Bold Prediction: How’s this for a bold prediction: I predict that I regret not picking the Kansas City Royals to win the division sometime around mid-May, if not sooner. There’s plenty of talent on the roster; it wouldn’t be surprising if KC had seven or eight All-Star-worthy players, taken from this group: Bobby Witt Jr., Maikel Garcia, Vinnie Pasquantino, Carter Jensen, Kris Bubic, Noah Cameron, Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, Jac Caglianone, Sal Perez and Carlos Estevez.

Put Judge’s terrifying prowess, the league’s awareness of it and a sometimes questionable supporting cast together and you get even more walks and a rare statistical threshold reached.

Isn’t it funny how baseball, the so-called “thinking man’s game,” manages to trip us up every single season? Sure, the Dodgers’ recent dynastic run might make you think they’ve cracked the code—but beneath those back-to-back titles lies a labyrinth of surprises, curveballs, and plot twists worthy of the silver screen. Every year, what seems like a sure bet can flip on its head: a contender morphs into a pretender, and an underdog charges out of nowhere. That’s the beautiful chaos of MLB. So, when writers Zach Crizer and Ryan Fagan sit down to make their 2026 projections, they throw caution to the wind—and guess what? They’re bold, they’re brazen, and they’re ready to back their calls. Whether you’re a stats nerd or simply love a good baseball tale, their picks and vivid predictions promise to keep you on your toes all season long. Curious to see who’s poised to surprise—and who might just stumble? Dive into their fearless forecasts and compare them with the cold, hard numbers of the Opta TRACR projection model. Because in baseball, the only certainty is uncertainty… and the fun is in the daring guesses. LEARN MORE

The Tigers have sort of a weird dynamic heading into this season. On one hand, there’s very much a sense of urgency with the impending departure of ace Tarik Skubal – the back-to-back AL Cy Young Award winner is famously a free agent after the season – and the return of 43-year-old Justin Verlander, the future Hall of Famer who would love to lead his first team back to the World Series for the first time since 2012.

The lineup is both crowded and a little flat. It looks strange that they can’t play Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, Ceddanne Rafaela and Masataka Yoshida every day, but they’ll figure it out through performance or attrition. Second-year star Roman Anthony, who will start every day in front of the Green Monster, figures to be Boston’s best hitter. The exact angle of his ascent from top prospect to potential MVP candidate might determine whether the championship potential matches the threats posed by Aaron Judge and Vlad Jr. elsewhere in this beast of a division.

Fagan’s Winner: Seattle Mariners

Crizer’s Bold Prediction: The Brewers’ new ace is a Cy Young Award finalist – and his name is Chad Patrick.

Now, the list of teams expected to allow more runs might be even shorter, considering the unproven pitching and high-scoring environment in Sacramento, but the A’s have enough thump to keep themselves in contention if they find even mild improvements from a young group of arms.

Opta Analyst’s Projected Winner: Seattle Mariners (47.4%)

NL East

Fagan’s Winner: Philadelphia Phillies

Fagan’s Bold Prediction: The Atlanta Braves gets back into the playoff conversation after a disastrous 2025 season, led by an MVP-caliber season from a very motivated Ronald Acuna, Jr., who’s fresh off helping Venezuela to the World Baseball Classic title.

No team this side of the Dodgers is working with a better baseline than Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor. Freddy Peralta is a surefire frontline starter, Bo Bichette brings an aggressive contact threat they were missing, and president of baseball operations David Stearns’ creative offseason raised the floor considerably.

Crizer’s Winner: New York Mets

Fagan’s Bold Prediction: As Shohei Ohtani checks items off the ever-evaporating list of things he has yet to accomplish in baseball, the right-hander makes a run at the NL Cy Young Award. He finished fourth in the AL back in 2022, but if Paul Skenes misses some starts this year, don’t be at all surprised if Ohtani claims that hardware, too.

Crizer’s Bold Prediction: The Marlins make the playoffs.

On the other hand, the future of Detroit baseball hasn’t even really arrived yet; prospects Kevin McGonigle, Max Clark (who was 7 during that 2012 World Series), Max Anderson and others should make an impact soon, but they won’t hit their primes for a while. It makes for a potentially weird vibe, but there’s a lot of talent available, and getting to 88 wins should do it.

Fagan’s Bold Prediction: The vagabond A’s become MLB’s most fun team. Nick Kurtz made the AL look like his own slo-pitch softball league, and he’s not the only masher in that lineup. Brent Rooker, Shea Langeliers and Tyler Soderstrom will put up big HR totals in that Sacramento bandbox, too. As for the prediction part? The A’s get back to .500 for the first time since the Matts – Olson and Chapman – manned the corner infield spots.

Milwaukee’s late-blooming 2025 rookie turned postseason weapon has a triumvirate of fastballs and, unlike extraordinarily talented teammate Jacob Misiorowski, he pounds the zone accordingly. An expanding arsenal building off his dominant cutter could take Patrick to the upper reaches of the sport.

Opta Analyst’s Projected Winner: Atlanta Braves (58.0%)

NL Central

Crizer’s Winner: Chicago Cubs

The World Baseball Classic was a great showcase for why the Royals have the highest ceiling in this division. Bobby Witt Jr. is clearly one of the top five players in the sport. WBC MVP Maikel Garcia, a capable shortstop working magic at third for Kansas City, looks primed to consolidate his breakout gains. And Vinnie Pasquantino’s power potential with Kauffman Stadium’s new dimensions should have everyone beaned up for the season.

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Fagan’s Bold Prediction: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. taps into the magic he found in the 2025 postseason and has a monster season, challenging Judge for the AL MVP award. Remember how dominating he was? He posted a .397/.494/.795 slash line, with eight home runs and 15 RBIs in the Jays’ 18 playoff games. Nothing about that performance felt like a fluke; instead, it felt much more like a preview of what’s to come in 2026.

That’s all fantastic and a great sign for the Tigers’ future. But it’s not quite as encouraging that only Riley Greene, the 25-year-old outfielder whose second-half swoon contributed to the Tigers’ 2025 collapse, is the only position player projected to exceed McGonigle’s production. There’s a lot of hit-or-miss in Detroit’s lineup, and relying on McGonigle to spark this offense alongside such a vaunted rotation is tempting fate.

Fagan’s Winner: Milwaukee Brewers

The Phillies seem to have been stuck in an odd sort of rut the past few years: They’re too good to be topped in the division race over a 162-game season but not quite good enough to win in October. Which one changes first? Phillies fans are hoping for the latter, obviously, and that makes sense. There might be changes on the horizon, but the core of a really good team is still in place. Can the youngsters, especially starting pitcher Andrew Painter and center fielder Justin Crawford, make the difference?

For comparison, we’ll add in the Opta TRACR projection model.

Opta Analyst’s Projected Winner: Chicago Cubs (31.8%)

NL West

Fagan’s Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers

In McGonigle, a middle infielder who batted .305/.408/.583 across three levels of the minors last year, the Tigers have one of the best prospects in baseball. He looks like a sure thing to get on base, hit line drives and challenge for batting titles. Projection systems are very high on McGonigle, with FanGraphs’ depth charts projections viewing him as a 3 WAR player right away.

But with Shohei Ohtani leading this lineup (it now includes offseason signee Kyle Tucker) and World Series titan Yoshinobu Yamamoto headlining the rotation, it’s hard to envision a world where the Dodgers truly stumble in 2026.

Crizer’s Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers

The list of teams you can confidently project to score more than the young A’s – led by Nick Kurtz, Tyler Soderstrom and Brent Rooker – is short. According to the PECOTA projection system at Baseball Prospectus, it’s two teams long: the Dodgers and Yankees.

Crizer’s Bold Prediction: Rookie Kevin McGonigle is the Tigers’ most valuable hitter, and that’s not a good thing.

As much as the past two World Series results might beg to differ, baseball is nearly impossible to predict.

San Diego has a constellation of stars in the bullpen. Mason Miller, last season’s trade deadline splash, is the most dominant reliever in the sport. Over-the-top fireballer Jeremiah Estrada and underrated southpaw Adrian Morejon aren’t too shabby, either, and setup man Jason Adam should be back from injury early in the season. There’s enough firepower for a historically stingy relief corps at Petco Park.

Opta Analyst’s Projected Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers (87.4%)

World Series

Fagan’s Pick: Mariners over Dodgers in 7

Crizer’s Pick: Mariners over Phillies in 6

Crizer’s Bold Prediction: The Athletics bash their way into contention for the postseason, making a run into late September.

The fact that it’s difficult to guess who their best starter will be – Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo, George Kirby and Luis Castillo are all reasonable options – is a sign this team has the goods to expect a World Series run, and not just dream of it.