College Football Week 1 Shockers: Which Underdogs Could Upend the FBS Powerhouses?
Let the upsets begin. Well, not necessarily in Week 1 given the matchups, but here’s what to like and watch for in the full kickoff to the 2026 FBS season.
Congratulations on making it through another long, cold college football offseason. Your reward is a Week 1 FBS schedule that will require you to work a little bit to find the fun.
But I assure you it’s in there, no matter how many power conference teams have retreated from challenging September games in the hopes of improving their College Football Playoff chances down the line. (Hey, we’ll let you jump ahead: Preseason CFP Bracket Projection.)
Below, you’ll find capsules with what to watch out for in 12 of my favorite Week 1 matchups. You’ll also find win probabilities as assigned by TRACR (Team Ranking Adjusted for Conference and Roster), Opta Analyst’s opponent-adjusted projection system. (TRACR rankings for all FBS teams)
Let’s dive in to the dozen games (all times ET; AP Top 25 preseason rankings included).
Colorado at Georgia Tech -6.5
- Kickoff: 8 p.m. Thursday (ESPN)
- TRACR Win Probability: Georgia Tech, 68%
Tech is the weirdest team in the ACC this year, the one I could see winning anywhere from four to nine games. The losses of all of last year’s big names on offense, plus coordinator Buster Faulkner, means a reset. But the offense has fresh upside with running back Justice Haynes and maybe with quarterback Alberto Mendoza, who we’ll finally get to see in meaningful action after he transferred in from Indiana. Just because a QB couldn’t crack the lineup in Bloomington doesn’t mean he’s not good. Colorado will be bad this year but will be extremely watchable with Deion Sanders as a leading story line. Offensive coordinator Brennan Marion works out of unique sets (watch the running back alignment), and receivers Danny Scudero and DeAndre Moore are big-time players.
Toledo at Michigan State -9.5
- Kickoff: 8 p.m. Friday (FS1)
- TRACR Win Probability: Michigan State, 79%
No cakewalk here for the Spartans, who would rather be playing some other MAC program in a new head coach’s first game. Pat Fitzgerald’s bunch should be fine here – for boring reasons. One of them is that Toledo is working in a new coaching staff and roster as well under former Mercer coach Mike Jacobs, one of my favorite hires of the offseason. The Spartans will have both the talent advantage and the edge on the margins after adding the best special teams coach in the country (Iowa’s LeVar Woods) and his star punter, Rhys Dakin.
No. 7 Miami (FL) -24.5 at Stanford
- Kickoff: 9 p.m. Friday (ESPN)
- TRACR Win Probability: Miami, 88%
It’s technically a power conference vs. power conference game, but just technically. The thing I’ll be watching most closely is how dominant the Hurricanes look at edge rusher and offensive tackle following the losses of stars at all four of those spots. My breakout player on this Miami team is junior OJ Frederique, a long outside cornerback who was injured for part of last season but shined against wide receivers Jeremiah Smith (Ohio State) and Charlie Becker (Indiana) in the CFP.
Liberty at James Madison -6.5
- Kickoff: Noon Saturday (ESPNU)
- TRACR Win Probability: James Madison, 89%
This is a strong Group of Six matchup of conference title contenders, I think TRACR’s win probability here is a bit high for JMU given its complete reset under new coach Billy Napier (last year’s coach, Bob Chesney, is at UCLA along with a handful of the roster’s former best players). Liberty was the nation’s biggest underachiever last year, going 4-8 despite what most people believe is an enormous financial advantage over Conference USA peers. The Flames also have a pretty compelling running back tandem in Kanye Udoh (Army and Arizona State) and Kam Davis (Florida State).
Miami (OH) at Pittsburgh -16.5
- Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. Saturday (The CW)
- TRACR Win Probability: Pittsburgh, 91%
Pitt should be fine here, but one thing TRACR doesn’t know is that the RedHawks just went on the biggest player spending spree in MAC history. I would consider making space for this one in your Saturday quadbox just in case Miami gets out to a plucky start. Pitt’s Mason Heintschel could be the best QB in the ACC if everything goes perfectly. Will it? Well …
Boise State at No. 2 Oregon -24.5
- Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday (CBS)
- TRACR Win Probability: Oregon, 96%
The Ducks shouldn’t have a real problem here, with an essentially perfect roster and the best front four in college football. Boise State has an excellent tailback duo in Dylan Riley and Sire Gaines, and the Broncos’ offensive line is always among the best in the Group of Six conferences. Keep it on your radar just in case the Broncos hit their hosts in the mouth a few times early. Boise very nearly pulled an upset here two years ago, losing 37-34 behind Ashton Jeanty.
Baylor vs. Auburn -7.5
- Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. Saturday in Atlanta (ABC)
- TRACR Win Probability: Auburn, 69%
It’s hard to make heads or tails of either of these teams, but for different reasons. Auburn is under new management and has more or less imported USF’s offense, betting that what worked for coach Alex Golesh and Byrum Brown in the American last year will now work in the SEC. Baylor stuck with Dave Aranda despite another year of underachievement and brought along portal quarterback DJ Lagway after he washed out at Florida. I think the best reason for hope in Waco, Texas, is the arrival of defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman, who had run some impressive units at Kansas State. Last year, Jackson Arnold ran all over the Bears. I expect Klanderman’s big focus in this game will be not letting Brown do the same thing.
Clemson at No. 11 LSU -10.5
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET Saturday (ABC)
- TRACR Win Probability: LSU, 78%
Clemson’s decline has taken some juice out of this matchup. Just think about how much bigger a deal last year’s meeting in the other Death Valley felt like. But I am intrigued to see if the visiting Tigers can keep up here for a while and how things shake out at quarterback. I don’t think LSU is in huge danger of losing this game given what appears to be a significant talent advantage at most places outside of wide receiver. But the Lane Kiffin experience is a roller coaster, and roller coasters sometimes go down. People will probably overreact to this one.
UCLA -1.5 at Cal
- Kickoff: 10:30 p.m. Saturday (ESPN)
- TRACR Win Probability: Cal, 73%
The best rivalry game of Week 1, for sure, and one that feels newly relevant given changes both programs have made. Under GM Ron Rivera and new coach Tosh Lupoi, Cal has assembled what should be one of the most exciting passing games in all the land. Quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has NFL stuff, and the Bears have loaded him up with interesting receiver transfers: Rutgers’ Ian Strong, Ohio’s Chase Hendricks and Oregon’s Cooper Perry (who came with Lupoi) among them. UCLA has imported James Madison’s system and a big chunk of its roster. The most exciting transfer from that group is edge rusher Sahir West, who had 14 tackles for loss last season.
No. 24 Louisville vs. No. 9 Ole Miss -6.5
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. Sunday in Nashville, Tennessee (ABC)
- TRACR Win Probability: Ole Miss, 72%
The best matchup of Week 1, I think. I really like Louisville this season, in particular its pass-rushing trio of Clev Lubin, AJ Green and North Carolina transfer Tyler Thompson. (The jury’s out for now on QB Lincoln Kienholz, the Ohio State transfer.) Ole Miss has a top-three returning QB in the sport in Trinidad Chambliss, perhaps a top-one running back in Kewan Lacy, and enough scattered athleticism on both sides of the ball that I don’t think this program is going to nosedive under Pete Golding. Whoever wins this one will have real playoff juice.
Wisconsin vs. No. 4 Notre Dame -20.5
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET Sunday in Green Bay, Wisconsin (NBC)
- TRACR Win Probability: Notre Dame, 94%
Notre Dame was No. 2 behind Ohio State in the TRACR preseason Top 25. The visiting Badgers have no chance of winning this game, but whether they show a pulse might be a leading indicator of whether Luke Fickell has a chance to remain this team’s head coach long term. I’m intrigued by Old Dominion transfer QB Colton Joseph, whose between-the-tackles running ability and exuberance bordering on overconfidence as a downfield passer should at least make this team more compelling to watch. There’s just no guarantee anyone wants to watch this after halftime. Notre Dame’s secondary, led by cornerback Leonard Moore, will not give Joseph much down the field.
No. 19 SMU -3.5 at Florida State
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET Monday (ESPN)
- TRACR Win Probability: Florida State, 69%
SMU’s offense is essentially quarterback Kevin Jennings and a bunch of people you’ve never heard of. If Jennings has a Heisman Trophy-adjacent season and Rhett Lashlee hits on his offensive supporting cast portal additions, this team can play in the ACC championship against Miami. If not, I think a falloff to seven or eight wins in a reset kind of season is possible. The defense is also contending with several major losses, including coordinator. Florida State enters the year with Mike Norvell on the most obvious hot seat in the country, but there are some reasons for promise. Receivers Duce Robinson and Micahi Danzy could be great, as could sophomores Mandrell and Darryll Desir on defense. I’m just not sure Ashton Daniels can deliver even middling ACC quarterback play. We’ll get a hint on Monday night.
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The post College Football Week 1: What to Watch for in a Dozen Key FBS Games appeared first on Opta Analyst.
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