Could a Third-Place Team Sneak into the World Cup Knockouts with Barely Any Points?

That’s because only the worst four third-placed teams are eliminated, and there are are enough groups where it is technically possible to finish third with fewer than three points.

Those groups are as follows:

Lowest possible points required to finish third

• Group A: 1 point: If Mexico beat Czech Republic AND South Korea beat South Africa. A draw in one of those games instead would mean the third-placed side finishes with two points.
• Group E: 1 point: Same situation as Group A, with Curacao (vs Ivory Coast) and Ecuador (vs Germany) the games in question.
• Group G: 2 points: If New Zealand beat Belgium, and/or if Egypt beat Iran.
• Group H: 2 points: If Uruguay lose to Spain.
• Group I: 1 point: If Senegal and Iraq draw with one another
• Group K: 2 points: If DR Congo and Uzbekistan draw with one another

In the unlikely event that five of those six groups go that way, then one team with two points would make it through to the round of 32.

In the even more unlikely scenario that all six groups go that way, then two teams with two points would be into the knockouts.

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