Inside the 2026 NFL Playoffs: Which Underdog Could Shock the Nation?

AFC: Bills +475 to win Conference

In terms of experience, there is really no team outside of maybe the Steelers that has the same level of consistency and experience as the Bills do. While Buffalo certainly had their flaws this season, the team still has the best quarterback in the AFC in the playoffs. The defense will have issues, the offense won’t be quite as crisp, but you’re telling me that a guy who has knocked on the door repeatedly only to have it shut by Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs won’t have to go through them? Give me some of that action. The Broncos are likely awaiting the Bills if they upset the Jaguars – for the record, everything I write in here will have nothing to do with spreads, unless noted. I expect the Bills to win against the Jaguars, and that means they probably face the Broncos, unless the Chargers upset the Patriots (I don’t think they will). I do think the Bills are the most capable of dealing with the Broncos defense. While Sean Payton is a great offensive coach, I’m not a huge fan of Bo Nix and don’t think this Broncos offense is going to have what it takes if the game is close. Josh Allen makes some dumb decisions, but the guy also has shown he is clearly not the reason for losses in the playoffs. I also think the Broncos soft schedule has made them look better than they actually are. The Texans are similar in structure to the Broncos and did beat the Bills earlier this year. I actually think that bodes well for the Bills if they see each other again. I think the Texans could lose to the Steelers if Aaron Rodgers is vintage. That would leave a AFC Championship of the Bills vs the Patriots/Texans/or Steelers. I think the Bills would be favored against the Steelers and maybe at worst a pick’em between the other two. That gives you a good opportunity to hedge. You’re asking Buffalo to win two games on the road to start the playoffs, but they have the right guy under center to get it done.