Is Something Worse Than Losing Haunting the Baltimore Orioles This Season?

It’s baffling, isn’t it? The Baltimore Orioles—a team brimming with young, promising talent—have plummeted from consecutive playoff berths to holding baseball’s third-worst record. You’d think a lineup dotted with bright, eager stars would guarantee at least some sparkle, but instead, the Birds are stuck deep in the AL East basement, in a tailspin that seemed nearly impossible not long ago. After firing the 2023 AL Manager of the Year and watching projections paint a grim 59-103 finish, the question hanging in the air is simple yet piercing: How did a team built for the future suddenly look so lost? As the dust settles on this perplexing season, the Orioles face a critical reckoning—not just about what went wrong but who’s really ready to soar when the rebuild’s wings stretch again. Curious to dive deeper? LEARN MORE.
Rutschman is the most alarming case on the surface. His OPS is down for a second consecutive season, with his line sitting at a punchless .206/.302/.339. Underlying numbers are rosier, though. Rutschman maintains two key calling cards: Strong bat-to-ball skills (109 contact+) and control of the zone (111 discipline+). If anything, his already solid 17% strikeout rate is more elevated than expected (12.1 xK%).

As the baby birds left the nest and began to fly – finishing above .500 in 2022, then winning 101 games in 2023 and returning to the playoffs in 2024 – the 2016 Cubs-esque plan to build around hitting mostly came to fruition. The notable exception was Holliday, whose rough introduction to the majors last year could be taken in stride because others were thriving, with Henderson even making a run at AL MVP contention.

So are the post-rebuild Orioles in danger of become forgettable?

As the attention shifts from this year to the future, though, the greater concern surrounds the parade of young, ruddy-cheeked, blond-haired hitters to which this franchise staked its hopes.

Right now, the best RV+ on the club belongs to Ryan O’Hearn, a 31-year-old first baseman/outfielder/designated hitter whose rise from free lotto ticket makes for a great story but won’t fuel daydreams of World Series glory.

Despite their plethora of young talent, the Orioles have dropped from two straight playoff appearances to an unfathomable third-worst record in baseball. While fixing what’s gone wrong, they also need to assess their future direction.

Deep in the cellar of an AL East they were considered contenders to win, their upward trajectory has fallen flat with MLB’s third-worst record and thoughts of a third straight postseason appearance all but vanquished.

His weakness is what happens when Rutschman makes contact – he lacks the pop to collect extra bases on fly balls to the big parts of the park – but his expected metrics and a .229 BABIP suggest he’s simply been one of the more unfortunate hitters in baseball to date. Rutschman’s 127 RV+ doesn’t line up with his top line numbers, but it’s indicative of good process that should be rewarded eventually.

In 2024, the Orioles became just the 13th team since integration in 1947 to field four above-average hitters (by OPS+, minimum 400 plate appearances) who were playing in their first three seasons in the majors.

So while the pitching is a lost cause, the lineup is under the microscope. The Orioles can’t really be this bad after such a promising start, right?

All sorts of stars past and present have set the league on fire, then struggled for extended stretches, then returned to stardom. For example, Diamondbacks dynamo Corbin Carroll has completed the last two parts of that cycle over the last 13 months.

By the numbers, the 23-year-old shortstop is pummeling the ball when he connects but struggling with swing decisions. His 98 discipline+ reflects a tendency to chase pitches out of the zone, while his in-zone swing rate is a bit down. He looks more vulnerable to breaking balls, whiffing on 43% of his swings at them to drag his contact+ down to 97, but that has improved a bit in May.

You’ll hear a phrase about young players: Development isn’t linear. It’s always true and yet always perplexing in practice. Among the 12 other clubs to assemble promising quartets of bats are the Bash Brothers who powered the Oakland A’s of the late-1980s, and also contributors who fizzled almost immediately, like J.D. Davis and Amed Rosario on the 2019 New York Mets.

How are the Baltimore Orioles this bad?

Forget about soaring; this is an Orioles team that needs to re-establish who will fly with it into 2026.

Both Westburg and Cowser are on the path back to the big leagues, starting rehab assignments this weekend, and the stretch run in Baltimore will be crucial to understanding the direction this team is headed, even as the standings fade from relevance.

Westburg and Cowser have played only 23 and four games, respectively, due to injuries, which is a hindrance that (hopefully) won’t persist. Still, it’s worth noting that other young players have not stepped up in their absence. Heston Kjerstad, the No. 2 overall draft pick in 2020, has been among the least productive hitters in MLB with a 65 RV+ as part of the Cowser backup plan. Coby Mayo has been backsliding in the minors and overmatched in the majors.

It’s easy enough to pile the blame on the pitching staff and the front office that assembled it. A starting rotation that came into 2025 looking dicey has turned out to be an unmitigated disaster, worst in the majors with a 125 raw value- (RV-) and a 146 park-adjusted ERA-.

Because the bats have been muffled, too. The offense rates out squarely in the bottom half of baseball, with a minus-0.42 offensive TRACR (sixth-worst in MLB) and a 95 RV+ (10th worst) and a disheartening dearth of star-level performances from Adley Rutschman and Co.

The post The Baltimore Orioles Can’t Really Be This Bad, Right? appeared first on Opta Analyst.

Even with the help of an average-ish bullpen, Baltimore’s pitching ranks second-worst overall (ahead of only the Miami Marlins) in RV-.

They’ve even fired Brandon Hyde, the 2023 AL Manager of the Year – replaced by interim manager Tony Mansolino. The Opta projection model has them on pace for a 59-103 finish.

It may not match what people envisioned when he was the consensus top prospect in the sport, but he’s shaping up as a young Willy Adames with the bat, which is a solid player in the middle infield if he can continue improving defensively.

It started with Rutschman, the catcher and No. 1 overall draft pick in 2019. Then came Gunnar Henderson and Colton Cowser and Jordan Westburg. Jackson Holliday, another No. 1 pick (2022) at a premium position, was to be the capstone.

The initial shock has morphed into acceptance, and the Orioles have more than this season to worry about. This was supposed to be a young core for the long haul, a sustainable winner forged in the fires of a scorched earth rebuild.

Henderson, a year removed from a fourth-place finish in the sizzling AL MVP race, can sensibly attribute a slow start to injury. His eagerness to return to form, however, might have cost him. His overall RV+ is languishing below average at 82 as June approaches, but his May line is positively 2024-like after a frustrating April.

Holliday is the positive note here. Vast improvement has launched him to the top of the Orioles’ batting order. He’s still encountering challenges making consistent contact, but he has rare power for a second baseman. He’s capable of hitting some truly eye-opening long balls, and that damage (121 BIP+) helps float his profile now that his approach has adjusted to major league pitching (104 discipline+).
The Orioles’ suffering is magnified because of how so many of these hitters took flight together and how many are now having growing pains together. Let’s focus on Rutschman, Henderson, Westburg and Cowser – the four thriving young bats from last season – plus Holliday.