Rams Face Falcons: Can LA Salvage Pride and Rewrite Their Season After NFC West Disappointment?

Will the Rams try to bounce back from a crushing string of results, or will they make the decision to rest starters like Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua on Monday Night Football?

Rams vs. Falcons: The Key Stats

• Right now, the Rams are considered heavy favorites on Monday Night Football against the Falcons, with the Opta supercomputer giving them a 67.3% win probability.  
• Drake London enters Week 17 with 3,879 receiving yards in 60 career games. If he gets 121 against the Rams, he will be the third fastest to 4,000 receiving yards in Falcons history, behind Julio Jones (47 games) and Andre Rison (56). At 24 years, 152 days old, he would be the youngest player in franchise history to reach that milestone. 
• Matthew Stafford threw his 40th touchdown pass last week on Thursday Night Football. At 37 years, 267 days old, he became the second-oldest player to reach the 40-touchdown milestone, trailing only Tom Brady’s 2020 and 2021 seasons. 

When the Los Angeles Rams and Detroit Lions agreed to swap quarterbacks in 2021, both teams appeared interested in altering their timelines. 

The Lions were rebuilding and preferred the much younger Goff as someone around whom the front office could build an offense, while the Rams saw themselves as imminent contenders and wanted a veteran to make a Super Bowl push. 

Both teams’ visions for the trade have been actualized almost to perfection, with Goff leading one of the NFL’s best offenses year after year and the Rams winning a Super Bowl in Stafford’s first year in Los Angeles. 

What neither team likely expected was Stafford having the best season of his career in 2025 at nearly 38 years old. Sportsbooks list Stafford as the favorite to win his first NFL MVP, with only New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye having a chance to catch him. 

With two games remaining in the season, Stafford has thrown for 4,179 yards, 40 touchdowns and five interceptions for a career-high passer rating of 112.1. If he reaches 42 touchdown passes, he will set a new career high and gain the outright franchise single-season record. 

On top of the gaudy statistics, Stafford has the Rams back among the NFC’s top contenders at 11-4 after finishing 10-7 in each of the last two regular seasons. But will even he play against the Atlanta Falcons on Monday Night Football?

The Rams have already clinched a playoff berth, bit their NFC West title hopes were crushed when they lost a 38-37 shootout to the Seattle Seahawks on Thursday Night Football and the San Francisco 49ers outlasted the Chicago Bears 42-38 on Sunday Night Football.

Currently, the Rams are the No. 6 seed in the conference. But if they beat the Falcons on Monday and then the Arizona Cardinals next Sunday, they’ll move up to the No. 5 seed and face the winner of Carolina Panthers-Tampa Bay Buccaneers game next Saturday in the playoffs.

Is moving up one spot enough for the Rams to chase down the stretch? Will they begin resting starters as early as Monday night? It remains to be seen, but the Opta supercomputer still gives the Rams the second-highest probability of winning the NFC at 16.0%. 

The Falcons, meanwhile, have been eliminated from playoff contention, but they enter the matchup on a modest two-game winning streak, and some of the team’s young offensive talent has started to blossom. 

Atlanta opened 3-2 but followed with a 1-7 stretch, losing starting quarterback Michael Penix Jr. in the process. Kirk Cousins’ 85.7 passer rating isn’t turning many heads, but he has played well enough to feed the team’s highly drafted skill players. 

While Monday’s game doesn’t carry any postseason ramifications for the Falcons, it likely means something to head coach Raheem Morris. He was the Rams’ defensive coordinator for three seasons, including during their 2021 Super Bowl run. 

Can Morris lead his new team to a victory over former boss Sean McVay?

Falcons’ Key to Victory vs. Rams

In three straight drafts from 2021-23, the Falcons used a top-10 pick on an offensive playmaker.

Kyle Pitts Sr., Drake London and Bijan Robinson have been the subject of some scrutiny as they tried to live up to their draft status, but Atlanta is finally starting to see the desired production from this trio. 

Robinson has established himself as one of the best and most versatile running backs in the league, and he’s having his best season yet. 

Robinson leads the league with 2,026 yards from scrimmage and is on pace to finish with 2,296, which would be the 12th most in a season all time. Robinson is the unquestioned centerpiece of Atlanta’s offense, having gained a league-high 39.7% of the team’s total net yards.

The Falcons’ favorite way to utilize Robinson is in their outside zone concept, also known as “stretch.” In outside zone, the entire offensive line slides to the play side, and the running back’s initial path is toward the tight end’s outside hip.

Depending on how the blocking develops, the runner can continue outside and race toward the sideline, cut upfield through an emerging hole or punish over-pursuing defenders by cutting back. It’s the perfect play for an athletic running back with great vision. 

The Falcons have run outside zone plays 213 times, almost twice as many as any other team (Chicago Bears, 114), and Robinson is a big reason why. He’s averaging 5.11 yards per carry on outside zone concepts, and it could be the key against a Rams defense that has allowed a league-low seven rushing touchdowns. 

The addition of nose tackle Poona Ford has bolstered LA’s interior run defense, but it is a little more vulnerable on the exterior. The Rams have allowed a 32.6% success rate on inside zone (third in the NFL), but they have allowed a 36.2% success rate on outside zone (18th).  

The running game could be crucial in staying on schedule against a Los Angeles defense that punishes teams in third-and-long situations. 

While Robinson’s rise has been steady, Pitts’ emergence has come after a wild ride. He’d been labeled a bust by some, especially those in the fantasy football community, but the 6-foot-6 tight end appears to have finally broken out in his fifth season.  

He leads the Falcons with 80 catches for 854 yards, and he has scored a career-high five touchdowns. His production has picked up significantly over the last four games, racking up 31 catches for 395 yards and four touchdowns. 

Among the 35 tight ends who have run at least 200 routes, Pitts ranks third this season with 2.4 burn yards per route run. 

He also appears to have good chemistry with Cousins. Since the Falcons shut down Penix for the season in Week 12, Pitts has a team-high 30.4% target share in drop-back passing situations. 

Pitts and Robinson will be key in the passing game on Monday night, when they face a Rams defense that allowed 135 receiving yards to tight ends and running backs in their last game. 

Rams’ Key to Victory vs. Falcons

While Stafford has grabbed the most headlines, the entire Los Angeles offense has been producing this season.

The Rams find themselves at or near the top of the league rankings in virtually every major offensive category, including an NFL-high 30.5 points per game. 

Stafford has been great, but McVay’s offense works best when it is balanced, and the running back duo of Kyren Williams and Blake Corum has combined for 1,769 rushing yards. 

As mentioned, no one runs outside zone more often than the Falcons. However, no one runs that scheme better than the Rams. 

Los Angeles has a league-leading 55.4% success rate when running outside zone, way higher than the NFL average of 38.2%. Their 6.7 yards per carry on outside zone rank second behind the Washington Commanders (6.9). 

Establishing a strong running game would not only move the chains but could also wear down an Atlanta pass rush that ranks second in the NFL with 50 sacks. Success on the ground can also open up the play-action passing game, which is a staple of the McVay offense. 

Los Angeles has run the fifth-most play-action concepts (102) this season, and has gained 9.7 yards per pass when running play-action. 

Enter Puka Nacua. 

Nacua has lit up defenses in just about any scheme, totaling 114 catches for 1,592 yards and eight touchdowns, and his role has gotten even bigger since Davante Adams has been sidelined with a hamstring injury. 

In last week’s loss to the Seahawks, Nacua had 12 receptions for 225 yards and two touchdowns, including one in overtime. As good as Nacua has been all-around, he’s been even better after a run fake. 

Among wide receivers with at least 25 total targets, Nacua ranks fourth with a burn rate of 72.2%. His burn rate jumps to 91.3% in play-action concepts. 

Even if Stafford takes a seat, if the Rams can stay balanced, it will be difficult to slow them down. 

Rams vs. Falcons Prediction

There has been plenty for the Falcons to be happy with over the last two weeks, with the development of some key younger players pointing toward a bright future. 

Their trio off offensive skill players has seemingly justified their first-round draft status, and rookie defensive end James Pearce Jr. leads the team with 8.5 sacks. Fellow first-year player Xavier Watts leads the defense with three interceptions, and leading tackler Kaden Elliss just turned 30 this year. 

The future appears bright, indeed, for the Falcons, but the present belongs to the Rams. With stars in both the rushing and passing games, combined with McVay’s play-calling, the Los Angeles offense is a juggernaut. 

Add a defense that ranks second in red zone success rate allowed at 32.0%, and it’s no wonder the Rams are back in Super Bowl contention. As of now, with the starters playing, the Opta supercomputer gives LA a 67.3% probability of winning in Atlanta.

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The post Rams vs. Falcons Prediction: How Will LA Play It After Falling Out of the Races for the NFC West Title and No. 1 Seed? appeared first on Opta Analyst.

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