Sweet 16 Showdown: Which Underdog Could Topple the Powerhouses and Rewrite the Bracket?
That does not mean the outcomes are predictable.
At this point in the tournament, the gap between teams is quite small, so playing well and executing on both ends of the court are must-haves. Underdogs need an edge, whether that’s controlling pace, creating difficult shots on defense or relying on a player who can take over late.
To separate teams for Sweet 16 predictions, we’ve simulated March Madness thousands of times using TRACR (Team Rating Adjusted for Conference and Roster), a net efficiency metric that calculates a team’s points per possession on both sides of the ball, adjusted for the strength of the opponent.
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