The Battle for NCAA Bids Heats Up: Which Underdogs Will Shock the Men’s Basketball World This Week?

Care to dance? We’re diving through the second week of men’s basketball conference tournaments to reveal our supercomputer projections for all competing teams.

Upsets. Buzzer-beaters. Improbable runs. Epic performances.

March Madness begins with conference tournament play that will go a long way toward determining seeds and who will get into 2026 NCAA Tournament.

Cinderellas will sneak in, bubbles will burst, and the cream will rise to the top.

Leagues like the ACC, Big 12 and SEC will have teams doing all they can to boost their resumes for Selection Sunday. Others will need to win their tournament to be one of 68. And sure, there are some teams that are locks to make the Big Dance but looking to improve on seeding.

After making predictions for last week’s conference tournaments, we’re on to Week 2, having simulated each one thousands of times using TRACR (Team Rating Adjusted for Conference and Roster). It’s a net efficiency metric that calculates a team’s points per possession on both sides of the ball, adjusted for the strength of the opponent.

TRACR represents how many points above or below a team is per 100 possessions. An average team is at 0.0, while a really good team might have a TRACR rating of 20 or more.

As an example, a team with a TRACR rating of 20 is projected to outscore an average team by .20 points per possession (20 divided by 100) in a game. If the game had 70 possessions, then that team would be expected to outscore the average team by 0.2*70=14 points.

Each of the conference tournaments is ranked by the highest probability of winning.

American Conference

• 1. South Florida (41.2%)
• 2. Tulsa (31.8%)
• 3. Wichita State (17.5%)
• 4. UAB (5.9%)
• 5. Florida Atlantic (1.5%)
• 6. North Texas (1.0%)
• 7. Memphis (0.6%)
• 8. Charlotte (0.4%)
• 9. Temple (0.1%)
• 10. Tulane (<0.01%)

South Florida enters the American Athletic Conference Tournament as the team to beat after finishing first in the regular season standings at 15-3. The Bulls have five players who average double-figure points, with Izaiyah Nelson and Joseph Pinion also ranking in the conference’s top five of WAR.

Tulsa, which finished tied for second in conference play at 13-5, is the second most likely team to win the tournament. Miles Barnstable, who was sixth in the conference in WAR during the regular season, powers the Golden Hurricane. 

Atlantic 10

• 1. Saint Louis (35.3%)
• 2. VCU (31.1%)
• 3. Dayton (13.5%)
• 4. George Washington (6.2%)
• 5. Saint Joseph’s (4.0%)
• 6. Davidson (2.7%)
• 7. Rhode Island (2.4%)
• 8. Richmond (1.6%)
• 9. George Mason (1.4%)
• 10. Duquesne (0.9%)
• 11. St. Bonaventure (0.4%)
• 12. Fordham (0.3%)
• 13. La Salle (0.2%)

Saint Louis (27-4) and defending A-10 champ VCU (24-7) tied for first in the regular season at 15-3 each, but they arrived with much-different endings.

After peaking at fifth in the country in TRACR on Jan. 31, and starting the season 24-1, Saint Louis has dropped three of its last six games. VCU, meanwhile, has won 13 of its last 14 games, and has three of the top six players in the conference in terms of DRIP.

Atlantic Coast

• 1. Duke (70.5%)
• 2. Virginia (8.8%)
• 3. Louisville (7.4%)
• 4. Miami (FL) (4.7%)
• 5. North Carolina (3.7%)
• 6. Clemson (1.7%)
• 7. North Carolina State (1.3%)
• 8. SMU (0.4%)
• 9. Stanford (0.4%)
• 10. Virginia Tech (0.3%)
• 11. California (0.2%)
• 12. Florida State (0.2%)
• 13. Syracuse (0.2%)
• 14. Pittsburgh (0.2%)
• 15. Wake Forest (<0.01%)

The ACC Tournament appears to run through Duke, which enters as a massive favorites. The Blue Devils (27-2, 17-1) have the highest TRACR ranking in the county (42.9) and also hold the No. 1 spot in the AP Top 25. They’re seeking to win a second straight ACC Tournament and for the 24th time overall. Freshman forward Cameron Boozer has the highest WAR and DRIP in the country. 

Virginia and Louisville form the next tier of contenders followed by Miami and North Carolina. Overall, the ACC remains deep, with 13 teams of the top 100 in TRACR.

Big 12

• 1. Arizona (40.8%)
• 2. Houston (28.4%)
• 3. Texas Tech (9.3%)
• 4. Iowa State (7.6%)
• 5. Kansas (6.7%)
• 6. TCU (2.4%)
• 7. BYU (1.6%)
• 8. Cincinnati (1.5%)
• 9. West Virginia (0.7%)
• 10. UCF (0.6%)
• 11. Baylor (0.2%)
• 12. Colorado (0.1%)
• 13. Oklahoma State (0.1%)
• 14. Arizona State (<0.01%)
• 15. Kansas State (<0.01%)
• 16. Utah (<0.01%)

Houston beat Arizona 72-64 in last year’s Big 12 championship game, and they’re the favorites to meet again this weekend. Arizona ranks fourth and Houston eighth in overall TRACR.

Texas Tech, Iowa State and Kansas all have at least a 6.7% chance of winning the tournament as well. Iowa State’s Joshua Jefferson ranks second in the nation in DRIP, while teammate Tamin Lipsey joins him as a top-five player in the conference. Texas Tech’s Christian Anderson enters the tournament leading the conference in WAR.

Big East

• 1. UConn (41.2%)
• 2. St. John’s (33.5%)
• 3. Villanova (10.9%)
• 4. Seton Hall (7.3%)
• 5. Creighton (3.1%)
• 6. Marquette (0.8%)
• 7. Butler (0.7%)
• 8. DePaul (0.7%)
• 9. Providence (0.7%)
• 10. Xavier (0.6%)
• 11. Georgetown (0.5%)

The Big East Tournament sets up as a battle between two of the conference’s top programs, who split the regular-season series. UConn enters with the highest TRACR rating in the league and the highest probability of winning the tournament. The Huskies are powered by a balanced, veteran core which includes senior forward Alex Karaban, who’s already won two national titles with the Huskies. He’s second in the conference in WAR, and teammates Silas Demary Jr. and Solo Ball also rank among the top seven.

However, St. John’s is the defending conference champion and finished first in the regular season standings at 18-2. Senior forward Zuby Ejiofor finished the regular season with the highest WAR in the conference.

Big Ten

• 1. Michigan (38.1%)
• 2. Illinois (25.7%)
• 3. Michigan State (12.8%)
• 4. Purdue (8.7%)
• 5. Nebraska (6.1%)
• 6. UCLA (2.5%)
• 7. Wisconsin (2.3%)
• 8. Iowa (1.2%)
• 9. Indiana (1.2%)
• 10. Ohio State (1.1%)
• 11. Washington (0.2%)
• 12. Minnesota (0.1%)
• 13. Northwestern (<0.01%)
• 14. Oregon (<0.01%)
• 15. USC (<0.01%)
• 16. Rutgers (<0.01%)
• 17. Penn State (<0.01%)
• 18. Maryland (<0.01%)

Four Big Ten teams sit within the top 15 of TRACR – Michigan, Illinois, Michigan State and Purdue – highlighting the strength at the top of the conference. Nebraska and Wisconsin also appear to be strong bets to reach the NCAA Tournament, while a few other teams remain firmly within the bubble. Indiana is more on the bubble at 60, and may be in need of a strong tournament run.

In addition, eight of the nation’s top 12 players in WAR are from the Big 10, with Michigan’s Yaxel Lendeborg, Iowa’s Bennett Stirtz, Illinois’ Keaton Wagler and Ohio State’s Bruce Thornton following Division I leader Cameron Boozer of Duke.

Big West

• 1. UC Irvine (36.6%)
• 2. Hawaii (34.1%)
• 3. UC San Diego (9.6%)
• 4. UC Santa Barbara (7.3%)
• 5. CSUN (4.9%)
• 6. Cal State Fullerton (3.9%)
• 7. UC Davis (2.5%)
• 8. Cal Poly (1.1%)

UC Irvine enters the tournament after finishing first in conference play at 15-5 and will be motivated after falling to UC San Diego in last year’s championship game. The Anteaters are one of the more-efficient teams in the league and are led by Kyle Evans, who’s second in WAR.

Hawaii presents the biggest challenge. The Rainbow Warriors finished just one game behind UC Irvine in the standings and feature one of the conference’s top impact players in Dre Bullock. Both teams are closely matched in TRACR and overall performance.

Conference USA

• 1. Sam Houston (22.9%)
• 2. Western Kentucky (21.2%)
• 3. Middle Tennessee (15.5%)
• 4. Liberty (15.0%)
• 5. Kennesaw State (6.8%)
• 6. Louisiana Tech (6.1%)
• 7. Missouri State (5.4%)
• 8. New Mexico State (3.0%)
• 9. FIU (2.2%)
• 10. Jacksonville State (1.9%)

The Conference USA Tournament presents an interesting dynamic. Despite Liberty finishing the regular season with the best record in the conference at 17-3 and entering as the defending champion, the model slightly favors Sam Houston and Western Kentucky over the Flames.

Liberty’s success has been driven by one of the more productive cores in the conference, with Colin Porter, Kaden Metheny and Zach Cleveland all finishing among the top five in DRIP during the regular season.

Sam Houston enters with one of the deepest rotations in the conference, featuring five players scoring in double figures. Kashie Natt ranks second in the conference in WAR at 3.39.

Western Kentucky also remains firmly in the mix behind Terrion Murdix, who ranks third in the conference in DRIP.

Ivy League

• 1. Yale (43.0%)
• 2. Harvard (21.6%)
• 3. Cornell (21.5%)
• 4. Penn (13.9%)

Looking to win a third straight title, Yale enters the Ivy League Tournament at Cornell as the clear favorite after finishing the regular season as the only team in the conference with a double-digit TRACR rating (17.9). The Bulldogs are led by the league’s top two in DRIP: senior forward Nick Townsend and sophomore forward Isaac Celiscar.

Harvard could provide the biggest challenge to Yale. The Crimson won their first meeting and lost the second in overtime.

Mid-American

• 1. Akron (43.2%)
• 2. Miami (OH) (24.5%)
• 3. Kent State (8.9%)
• 4. Toledo (8.3%)
• 5. Bowling Green (7.0%)
• 6. Buffalo (3.3%)
• 7. Massachusetts (2.9%)
• 8. Ohio (1.9%)

Surprise, surprise: Despite finishing the regular season 31-0, the Miami Redhawks rank second in the conference in TRACR to Akron, which is why the Zips are favored to win the conference tournament. Miami, however, won their lone regular-season meeting 76-73 on Jan. 3. 

Given the gaudy record, it’s hard to imagine Miami missing out on an NCAA bid even if it bows out early in the MAC Tournament. But TRACR views Akron as a viable candidate for an at-large berth as well. 

Mid-Eastern Athletic

• 1. Howard (75.4%)
• 2. Norfolk State (10.2%)
• 3. Morgan State (6.0%)
• 4. Maryland Eastern Shore (4.2%)
• 5. North Carolina Central (2.0%)
• 6. Delaware State (1.2%)
• 7. South Carolina State (1.0%)

Howard is the heavy favorite to win the MEAC for the third time in the last four seasons. The Bison are the only team in the conference with a TRACR rating above 0 and enter the tournament having won their last six games, and nine out of their last 10, with the only loss out of conference and in overtime to Yale.

The top five players in the conference in WAR play for Howard. Bryce Howard leads in DRIP in addition to WAR.

Mountain West

• 1. Utah State (23.1%)
• 2. San Diego State (18.3%)
• 3. New Mexico (15.6%)
• 4. Nevada (13.2%)
• 5. Grand Canyon (12.5%)
• 6. Boise State (9.8%)
• 7. Colorado State (3.8%)
• 8. Wyoming (1.8%)
• 9. UNLV (1.6%)
• 10. Fresno State (0.3%)
• 11. San Jose State (0.0%)
• 12. Air Force (0.0%)

The Mountain West Tournament is shaping up to be one of the more competitive brackets in the country as five teams finished the regular season with a TRACR rating above 15. Utah State leads the way – 40th overall in the nation – but the difference between the Aggies and teams in the middle of the pack is relatively small. 

Utah State, the regular season champ, boasts junior guard Mason Falslev, who leads the conference in WAR, and MJ Collins Jr., who’s fifth. San Diego State and New Mexico also sit near the top of the projections, while defending champion Colorado State remains a dangerous team capable of making another run.

Southeastern

• 1. Florida (46.5%)
• 2. Arkansas (11.9%)
• 3. Alabama (11.8%)
• 4. Vanderbilt (8.9%)
• 5. Tennessee (8.5%)
• 6. Georgia (4.9%)
• 7. Kentucky (2.4%)
• 8. Texas A&M (2.2%)
• 9. Oklahoma (1.2%)
• 10. Missouri (0.8%)
• 11. Texas (0.6%)
• 12. Auburn (0.3%)
• 13. LSU (<0.01%)
• 14. Ole Miss (<0.01%)
• 15. South Carolina (<0.01%)
• 16. Mississippi State (<0.01%)

Reigning SEC Tournament champ Florida is again the team to beat, finishing atop the regular season standings at 16-2 and with the conference’s highest TRACR rating. The Gators, also the defending national champions, are a balanced powerhouse with six players averaging at least 9.9 points per game. Thomas Haugh finished fourth in the conference in WAR during the regular season.

Arkansas and Alabama are the primary challengers after both finished 13-5 in conference play. Arkansas features freshman guard Darius Acuff Jr., who scored 49 points in a double-overtime thriller against Alabama on Feb. 18. Alabama also brings significant depth into the tournament, with six players finishing the regular season averaging double-figure points.

Southwestern Athletic

• 1. Bethune-Cookman (20.0%)
• 2. Southern University (19.0%)
• 3. Florida A&M (16.9%)
• 4. Alabama A&M (16.0%)
• 5. Texas Southern (8.5%)
• 6. Prairie View A&M (6.4%)
• 7. Grambling State (5.5%)
• 8. Arkansas-Pine Bluff (5.5%)
• 9. Alabama State (1.9%)
• 10. Jackson State (0.3%)
• 11. Alcorn State (<0.1%)
• 12. Mississippi Valley State (<0.1%)

This year’s Southwestern Athletic Conference Tournament shapes up to be one of the more competitive brackets, with four teams holding at least a 15% chance to win the title. Bethune-Cookman finished the regular season atop the standings at 14-4 and is led by senior guard Jakobi Heady, the conference leader in WAR.

Southern and Florida A&M both closed the regular season at 11-7 in conference, while UAPB, Jackson State, Alabama A&M and Texas Southern all finished at 10–8 in a tightly grouped pack.

Western Athletic

• 1. Utah Valley (46.2%)
• 2. California Baptist (39.3%)
• 3. UT Arlington (6.8%)
• 4. Utah Tech (4.1%)
• 5. Tarleton State (1.4%)
• 6. Southern Utah (1.2%)
• 7. Abilene Christian (1.0%)

After winning the last three WAC conference tournaments, Grand Canyon moved to the Mountain West this season, guaranteeing a new champion. Utah Valley and California Baptist are the heavy favorites, winning a combined 85.5% of simulations.

Utah Valley has three of the conference’s top six in WAR, led by Trevan Leonhardt at 3.41.

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The post Men’s Basketball Conference Tournaments: Who’s Going to Earn NCAA Bids This Week? appeared first on Opta Analyst.

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