The Shocking Truth Behind This NFL Season’s Dark Horses, Disasters, and Unseen Threats Revealed!
Weâve gone back to see where last seasonâs NFL playoff teams stood through Week 8 to compare against teams at the same point this season. It may give insight into whatâs about to change.
Eight weeks into the 2026 NFL season, the standings provide a pretty good idea of which teams are the best in the league, but they donât tell the whole story.
To find out which teams can actually make waves in the playoffs, we dug a little deeper to find the true contenders versus the pretenders for the second half of the season. We looked at our playoff probability, as well as on-field production (offensive success rate, offensive success rate allowed and point differential), strength of schedule (both in the first eight weeks and final nine weeks) and our own team rating system.
We compared the success rates and point differentials with the averages of the 14 teams that made the 2025 playoffs through Week 8 of last season: a 43.5% offensive success rate, a 41.9% defensive success rate allowed and a plus-25.9 point differential.
A team should ideally clear at least two of the three, while our team ratings and remaining strength of schedule can help add to or weaken a teamâs case.
With that in mind, here’s where we stand heading into NFL Week 9.
Contenders
NFC North (Minus Minnesota Vikings)
It’s hard to ignore what’s happening in the NFC North. All four teams are in the playoff hunt, and three have legitimate contender cases.
The Chicago Bears (85.2% playoff chance) have the most complete profile. They’re 6-2 with a balanced team that can win on both sides of the ball. They have a tough schedule remaining, though, with the highest combined opponent winning percentage (.585) through the next 10 weeks (they play nine games). Everyone trusts Ben Johnson’s offense. The acquisition of Jeffery Simmons immediately bumped their defensive ranking from 32nd to 11th in the NFL before their win over the Seattle Seahawks.
The Detroit Lions (82.6%) have the offensive firepower to make a deep run at 5-2, but their defensive inconsistency and tougher remaining schedule (.526 opponent winning percentage) are reasons for caution.
The Green Bay Packers (54.4%) are the toughest sell. They’re 5-3 but have an inconsistent offense and difficult remaining schedule (.561).
San Francisco 49ers
The San Francisco 49ers have one of the strongest cases in the league. They’re 6-1 with a +58 point differential and lead the NFL with a 51.6% offensive success rate. Their defense has also allowed a 41.2% success rate, comfortably better than the historical playoff-team average.
The Niners are near the top of our team ratings at 13.03 and have a 96.0% chance of making the playoffs â highest in the league. They also have one of the more favorable remaining schedules, with a combined opponent win percentage of .467 â eighth-easiest in the league.
Cincinnati Bengals
The Cincinnati Bengals have the second-highest team rating in the league at 13.29, and their offense is a big reason why. Theyâve posted a 48.96% offensive success rate, third-best in the NFL, and have a +48 point differential.
The defense has been more of a concern, allowing a 43.9% success rate, but that isn’t necessarily a deal breaker. Several 2025 playoff teams, including the Philadelphia Eagles, Buffalo Bills, Pittsburgh Steelers, Bears and 49ers, finished the first half of the season with comparable defensive success rates allowed.
Cincinnati also has a favorable remaining schedule, with the combined opponent winning percentage of just 0.493 â 14th-easiest. Thatâs all played into their 93.2% chance to make the postseason, which is third-highest in the league.
Buffalo Bills
The Bills defense hasn’t been particularly convincing, but the rest of the teamâs profile is hard to argue with through the first half of the season.
The Bills are 6-1 with a +52 point differential and have a 91.6% chance to make the playoffs. While their defense has allowed a 45.7% success rate (well below the historical playoff-team average), the 45.98% offensive success rate is a big reason why theyâre a contender.
The Billsâ 9.40 team rating isn’t quite as impressive as some of the other contenders, but their schedule isnât daunting with a .513 win percentage among remaining opponents.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jacksonville Jaguars (82.4% playoff chance) might have the most impressive resume in the NFL. Theyâre 5-2 and have outscored opponents by 85 points, while posting a 46.1% offensive success rate and allowing just 40.3% on defense.
They clear all three historical benchmarks, and their remaining schedule is also favorable. Their remaining opponent winning percentage is just .416, which is the easiest in the NFL.
The Jaguars’ team rating of 8.67 isn’t quite as high as some of the other contenders, but the on-field production is difficult to ignore.
Pretenders
AFC North (minus Cincinnati Bengals)
The AFC North has plenty of teams in the playoff hunt, but the Bengals are the only one with a convincing contender profile.
The Steelers (72.2% playoff chance) are 6-2, but their 40.1% offense success rate ranks 21st and is well below the playoff average. Their defense has kept them competitive against the 13th-easiest schedule, but theyâre only 22nd-best in team rating at 7.76. While the Steelers face the 10th-easiest remaining schedule, they run into a gauntlet of the Bengals, Denver Broncos, Houston Texans and Jaguars after their bye.
The Cleveland Browns (45.5% playoff chance) have a similar problem. Their defense has been solid, but an underwhelming offense and point differential make it difficult to trust them as a serious threat. They face the ninth-easiest remaining schedule (.470).
The Baltimore Ravens (22.1% playoff chance) have enough talent to compete, but injuries to Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley have left them without a reliable quarterback option, prompting them to trade for Jacoby Brissett. At 4-4 with a minus-24 point differential, they may need a miracle. That wonât be easy with the 10th-hardest schedule remaining (.522).
Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs are an interesting case because their underlying numbers are good and they have a 60.1% to make the postseason. Theyâre 5-2 with a +36 point differential, a 46.5% offensive success rate and a 37.9% defensive success rate allowed, which clears all three historical benchmarks. So why arenât they a contender?
Two reasons: The roster isnât very good and the remaining schedule is harder.
The Chiefs have a 7.82 team rating, which ranks 20th. Their pass catchers rank among the worst positional units in the NFL. They’ve also enjoyed one of the easiest schedules in the first half (.426 combined opponent win percentage), while their second-half opponents sit at .500.
Minnesota Vikings
The Minnesota Vikings are 6-1 and have a 71.2% chance to make the playoffs, but their record is doing a lot of heavy lifting.
The Vikings have been excellent defensively, allowing just a 35.8% offensive success rate, the best mark in the league. Their offense, however, has a 34.9% success rate. That would be the lowest mark for a playoff team since the 2024 Houston Texans finished at 33.4%.
The Vikings have a 6.81 team rating, which ranks 27th, and their remaining schedule is the second toughest (.580).
New York Giants
The New York Giants have a 73.0% playoff probability, but itâs more about the state of the subpar NFC East than the viability of their team. They face the 11th-easiest remaining schedule with a combined opponent win percentage of .480 after facing the easiest schedule to start the year at .330.
They’re 4-2-1 with a +2 point differential, and neither side of the ball has been particularly impressive. The offense has a 40.2% success rate, while the defense has allowed 42.3%. Both fall short of the historical playoff-team averages.
The 9.10 team rating is respectable, but only 11 teams with a point differential of +2 or worse have made the playoffs since the field expanded to 14 teams in 2020, and the 2021 49ers are the only team to reach an NFC championship game after posting a point differential of +2 or worse through Week 8.
Stuck in Between
There are four teams that are difficult to place.
The New England Patriots are 5-3 and have a 94.6% playoff probability and a 12.63 team rating, but they haven’t cleared any of the three performance benchmarks and face the seventh-hardest remaining schedule (.545).
The Broncos, whom New England beat for the AFC title last season, are 6-2, yet their +7 point differential and 36.0% offensive success rate raise questions about how sustainable their success is for the rest of the season. They have a much easier second-half path, facing opponents with a combined .456 win percentage (fifth-easiest)
The Seahawks own the league’s highest team rating at 13.94 and an excellent defense, but the defending Super Bowl champions are just 4-4 and have been inconsistent offensively. They have an easier schedule ahead, though, with their opponents a combined .486.Â
The Los Angeles Rams, meanwhile, clear all three benchmarks and have a 13.04 rating (third-best), but their 4-4 record and tougher remaining schedule (.514) leave them with just a 44.6% playoff probability.
Only two teams with the same or worse record made the playoffs a year ago, so itâs a tough hill for both NFC West teams to climb.
All four teams have reasons to believe they can make a run. None has put together the full picture yet.
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The post Who Are the NFL Contenders, Pretenders and Teams Stuck in Between? appeared first on Opta Analyst.
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