Thursday Night Showdown: Can the Bills and Lions’ Explosive Offenses Rewrite NFL Scoring Records?

The Week 2 matchup of Lions vs. Bills on “Thursday Night Football” could mirror what occurred across the NFL in its opening week of action – lots of scoring.

The 2026 NFL season is off and running – and passing, and scoring – as after one week, the theme has been offense.

Fantasy football players and bettors who like to take the “over” on totals were thrilled with Week 1 as the NFL collectively set scoring records, leaving defensive coordinators league-wide pulling their hair out.

There were 93 touchdowns scored in the 16 games, the most ever in a Week 1 in NFL history, and the combined point total (791) and per-game average (49.44) tied 2012 for the most in a Week 1. The 37 rushing touchdowns also were an opening-week record.

The prime-time games on Wednesday, Thursday and Monday nights actually brought the overall average down, meaning Sunday’s schedule was especially high-scoring at a record 53.31 combined points per game.

What has caused this surge in offensive efficiency?

Former Pittsburgh Steelers coach Mike Tomlin, now an NFL analyst for NBC, pointed toward the league’s reduced preseason schedule and shift away from physicality in practices.

Another theory is offensive lines are healthier at the beginning of the season.

Perhaps no position group benefits more from continuity than the offensive line, and most teams entered Week 1 with stable and healthy groups up front. As attrition of the season builds, however, offensive lines could become more mistake-prone with each injury, lineup adjustment and position switch.

Offenses allowed just a 38.3% pressure rate in Week 1. This after the 2025 season average was 47.3%.

Offensive line play was certainly the leading factor in the Chicago Bears’ 59-point outburst against the Carolina Panthers. No team has scored more points in a season opener since the 1973 Atlanta Falcons.

The Bears netted 291 rushing yards, their most in a game since 1984, when Walter Payton was running wild. They also scored a franchise-record six touchdowns on the ground.

Bears runners gained 5.3 yards per carry before contact, nearly double the Week 1 NFL average of 2.7. Add in Caleb Williams’ 124.1 passer rating – fifth-highest in Week 1 – and it’s easy to see how the points kept coming.

Buffalo Gets Statement Win

While the Bears put up the best raw offensive numbers in Week 1, the Buffalo Bills’ performance was arguably more impressive, given the circumstances.

They opened the season with a 36-31 road win over the Houston Texans, with Josh Allen lighting up arguably the league’s best defense.

The Bills’ 36 points and 409 yards of net offense were both more than Houston allowed in any game last season.

In 2025, Houston ranked third in rushing success rate allowed at 37.2%, and slowing down Bills running back James Cook III, the NFL’s 2025 rushing leader with 1,621 yards, was clearly a priority for the Texans defense. The Bills had just a 30.0% success rate on designed runs, and Cook finished the game with 13 carries for 57 yards. Buffalo’s other running backs combined for only two carries and six yards.

Josh Allen, however, is basically a superhero.

Allen was 20 of 29 for 334 yards and two touchdown passes, and he rushed for two more TDs. He finished the game with a 130.5 passer rating despite being pressured on 53.1% of his dropbacks.

Allen averaged a league-high 12.82 air yards per attempt in Week 1 and still had an 89.3% well-thrown rate, the sixth highest among qualified passers.

Dalton Kincaid and the newly acquired DJ Moore both reached the milestone of 100 receiving yards last week after the Bills only had five 100-yard receiving performances all last season.

However, the Bills will be challenged again this week after a short turnaround when they host the Detroit Lions on “Thursday Night Football.”

A Roar or a Whimper?

There are no “bad wins” in the NFL, but some are certainly more convincing of others, and the Lions’ 31-30 overtime victory over the New Orleans Saints left questions to be answered.

Up 7-0 at halftime, Detroit quickly expanded the lead to 21-0 early in the third quarter. It appeared the rout was on.

But New Orleans rallied to tie the game, thanks largely to Tyler Shough’s three touchdown passes, and the Saints even answered Detroit’s touchdown in overtime before their missed two-point attempt allowed the Lions to celebrate a nail-biting win. (Individual and team stat leaders are here.)

The blown lead and narrow margin of victory over a team that went 6-11 last season were surprising for the Lions, and such an unbalanced game script does make it difficult to assess the numbers.

The Lions defense allowed 410 passing yards to Shough, but that was over 56 attempts. The unit also totaled five sacks and two interceptions, giving it a passing success rate allowed of 39.7%, ranking 10th in Week 1.

Detroit’s offense stalled in the second half but still had a good performance overall.

In his first game as a workhorse running back, Jahmyr Gibbs provided proof of concept by carrying the ball 29 times for 156 yards and two touchdowns.

Lions vs. Bills on Thursday Night Football

When the Lions visit the Bills for “Thursday Night Football” – kicking off Week 2 and marking the regular-season debut of the new Highmark Stadium – another high-scoring affair could be on tap. Most sportsbooks have placed the over-under total around 54.5, four points higher than any other game.

When the Lions are on offense, their focus should be on using Gibbs to keep Buffalo off-balance.

Last week, Detroit had its most success on the ground running out of 11 personnel – an alignment with one running back, one tight end and three wide receivers.

Traditionally, 11 personnel would indicate to a defense the play call is more likely to be a pass than a run. Fitting that trend, the Bills defense substituted in extra defensive backs every snap against 11 personnel in the Texans matchup in Week 1.

It’s typical to match three-receiver looks with five defensive backs (nickel), but the Bills went even further at times, adding a sixth defensive back (dime personnel) on about 40% of their snaps against 11 personnel.

Playing that light against the Lions’ beefy offensive line could lead to disastrous consequences.

Gibbs averaged over 8.2 yards per carry out of 11 personnel against the Saints, and it wasn’t just a one-game fluke. Last season, he ran for 6.1 yards per carry in three-receiver sets, and the Lions’ 4.4 yards per carry before contact in 11 personnel was easily the highest in the league last season.

The third receiver in these Detroit formations is Isaac TeSlaa, a second-year player who is listed at 6-foot-4, 214 pounds. That frame essentially allows the Lions to scheme him like a tight end on running plays and a wide receiver on passing plays. In order for the Bills to slow down Gibbs and the Lions’ rushing attack, they may need to play heavier than usual and hope a safety can cover TeSlaa.

When Buffalo has the ball, Detroit’s defense must stay disciplined against a balanced offense.

Last week’s unbalanced game script left the Lions defending the pass almost the entire second half, and the Saints’ 38.1% rushing success rate ranked 28th last season.

Buffalo’s balance will present a greater challenge.

Despite Cook’s modest production in the Bills’ opener, he will remain a cornerstone of the offensive game plan, and Allen has been excellent at playing off Cook’s success.

Allen had 94 adjusted pass attempts last season on play-action concepts, a pass after a hard and committed run fake. Only three quarterbacks threw more often from play action, and Allen’s 78.0% expected completion rate on play action was the best in the league among players with at least 40 adjusted attempts.

Allen threw seven play-action passes last week, with the intended receivers an average of 15.6 yards downfield.

Detroit’s defense only saw one play-action pass in the win over the Saints, leaving its play-recognition skills relatively untested. The unit was about league average in defending play action last season, with a success rate allowed of 48.5%.

Of course, staying disciplined on defense is easier said than done, and no defender wants to be playing on his heels with Cook or Allen running right toward him. And the Bills could stay in base personnel to slow down the run but risk seeing Jameson Williams or Amon-Ra St. Brown streaking past a linebacker for a long touchdown.

So many NFL offenses in Week 1 put their opponents in nearly impossible situations, forcing them to pick their poison or hope one shaky matchup can do just enough. Buffalo and Detroit routinely leave opposing defenders with their heads spinning as the numbers on the scoreboard rise.

Defenses always find ways to catch up in the NFL, and when the winter chill sets in, a record scoring week may seem like a distant memory.

The tide will turn at some point, but probably not on Thursday Night Football. Let the fireworks fly.

Enjoy this? Add Opta Analyst as a preferred source by clicking here.

For more coverage, follow along on social media on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X.

The post As NFL Scoring Soars, Bills, Lions Bring Powerful Attacks to ‘Thursday Night Football’ appeared first on Opta Analyst.