Uncovering the Hidden Truths: Which NFL Week 2 Performances Signal Lasting Success—and Which Are Doomed to Fade?
There were a lot of eye-catching results in the first week of the NFL season. We’re diving into some of the numbers to decide if certain developments will continue moving forward.
Defensive purists look away. Week 1 of the 2026 season brought the biggest offensive onslaught in NFL history.
Literally.
There were 52.43 points per game in the season-opening schedule, which is the most of all time. Eleven of the 32 teams scored at least 30 points, tying for the second most ever in Week 1.
Is this sustainable on a league-wide scale? Probably not. But scoring wasn’t the only trend worth tracking.
Let’s dig into the numbers and decide what is a sign of things to come this season and what is almost assuredly not going to happen again, even in NFL Week 2.
Bears Rushing Attack
It might be time to add Ben Johnson’s name to the best rushing attack head coaches in the NFL. The Chicago Bears ran the ball 39 times for 291 yards and six touchdowns against the Carolina Panthers in a 59-31 victory – and they made it look easy.
The Bears ranked No. 1 in Week 1 with 7.46 yards per carry when no other team averaged more than 5.80 yards. Their running back duo of D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai also dominated in yards per carry and yards per carry after contact.
This is not an anomaly for a Johnson offense. Last season, his Bears rushed for more than 200 yards in three different games and finished the season third in rushing yards per game (144.5). Plus, during his time as Detroit Lions offensive coordinator, his rushing units ranked fifth in the league in 2023 and sixth in 2024. Take it back one more season to his first as Lions’ OC in 2022, his offenses have eight 200+ yard rushing performances, which tie for the fourth most among offensive coordinators or head coaches in that span.
The caveat, of course, is the Bears’ opponent in Week 1. The Panthers defense ranked only 20th in run defense in 2025. But given Johnson’s track record, the pattern is there for the Bears to at least have one of the top rushing units for the rest of the season.
Verdict: Sustainable.
Jaxson Dart’s Efficiency
As the New York Giants opened with a 28-20 upset of the Dallas Cowboys, quarterback Jaxson Dart put together one of the more efficient performances of his career. The young signal-caller finished with at least 200 passing yards (230), multiple touchdowns (three) and zero turnovers for just the second time as a starter, and he helped the Giants convert more than 80% of their third-down attempts.
Dart played with more discipline than anything else. His efficiency surely gains from operating inside the John Harbaugh and Matt Nagy scheme rather than any leap in talent. His open-target throw rate actually went down year-over-year, but his catchable-throw rate and well-thrown-ball rate both rose, along with a sizable jump in completion percentage from 65.7% in 2025 to the second-highest in Week 1 at 79.3%.
The clearest evidence is his in-design rate, which measures how often a quarterback throws within the play as called, rather than off a scramble, pressure or other out-of-structure situation. Dart finished the game with a 75.9% in-design rate, ranking 14th in Week 1. Last year, his rate was 66.0%, or 21st out of 34 QBs who attempted at least 200 passes.
It’s progress for the Giants’ 2025 late first-round draft pick, but he also played against a Dallas defense that allowed the league’s second-highest passing success rate last season. Now in NFL Week 2, he’ll take on a Los Angeles Rams defense looking for redemption after a season-opening loss.
Verdict: Not entirely sustainable.
Mike LaFleur’s Cardinals
This was perhaps the most shocking development of NFL Week 1. Not only did first-time head coach Mike LaFleur take down veteran coach Jim Harbaugh, but his Arizona Cardinals looked good doing it during a 26-14 win over the Los Angeles Chargers.
The offense put up nearly 400 total yards behind quarterback Jacoby Brissett’s 277 through the air, and the Cards finished with the 10th-best passing success rate (47.6%) in Week 1.
The defense was just as impressive, finishing 11th in success rate allowed at 39.2%. That number matters because of who’s running the defense. Coordinator Nick Rallis isn’t new to this roster after he ran the Cardinals defense under Jonathan Gannon a year ago. However, that unit finished 28th in success rate allowed.
The turnaround suggests LaFleur’s coaching acumen, not just personnel, is driving the improvement. And his pedigree suggests he knows how to get the most out of his players. He was a disciple of Sean McVay’s Rams offense for three seasons and spent 2015-20 with Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco.
Despite the upset victory, Arizona still faces one of the toughest schedules in the league in surely its toughest division (NFC West). While a nice Week 1 storyline, it’s also hard to count on the Cardinals playing spoiler much more this year even if LaFleur has already proven to be a competent coach.
Verdict: Not sustainable.
49ers Have a Top Defense Again
The San Francisco 49ers defense, which used to be one of the top units in the league throughout the Shanahan era which began in 2017, has been in shambles over the past few years.
The team’s success rate allowed (overall, against the run and against the pass) was some of the best in the league from 2019 to 2022, but they’ve since declined rapidly.
49ers Defense Under Kyle Shanahan
With Success Rate Allowed, Run Success Allowed %, Pass Success Allowed% (and NFL ranking)
- 2017 Season: 37.7% (22), 32.7% (16), 41.2% (25)
- 2018 Season: 39.4% (14), 37.0% (23), 40.9% (10)
- 2019 Season: 37.2% (10), 40.6% (31), 35.2% (2)
- 2020 Season: 38.3% (7), 35.7% (12), 39.9% (5)
- 2021 Season: 36.3% (3), 32.0% (2), 38.8% (6)
- 2022 Season: 36.0% (2), 32.1% (2), 38.2% (5)
- 2023 Season: 39.1% (19), 38.4% (25), 39.4% (11)
- 2024 Season: 41.1% (24), 39.0% (23), 42.5% (22)
- 2025 Season: 46.8% (32), 49.0% (32), 45.4% (25)
The scenario appeared to change in Week 1 against a Rams offense that is the league’s best on paper (but now needing to rebound after San Fran’s 27-7 win). While the 49ers still ranked only 20th in success rate allowed and gave up nearly 400 total yards, the defense held the Rams to just the one touchdown and forced two takeaways.
The 49ers’ individual advanced metrics looked great, too. Defensive coordinator Raheem Morris’ unit allowed an open rate of only 74.1%, which ranked seventh-best in Week 1. That’s better than any open rate allowed in any season under Shanahan.
While the group didn’t register a sack, the defense’s 53.3% pressure rate ranked fifth in the league and would also top any season under Shanahan.
The reasons are simple: Star middle linebacker Fred Warner is healthy; the team brought back running mate Dre Greenlaw; and the secondary is now being crafted by Morris, one of the best defensive coaches in the league.
If the 49ers’ Week 1 combination of elite pressure and lockdown coverage continues, their defensive juggernaut could truly be back.
Verdict: Sustainable.
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The post Opening Assessment: What’s Sustainable (Or Not) in NFL Week 2 and Beyond appeared first on Opta Analyst.
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