Which Underdogs Will Shock the Nation and Secure NCAA Bids in This Week’s Men’s Basketball Conference Tournaments?

We’re diving headfirst into every conference, from the America East to the West Coast, breaking down who’s got the edge and who might just pull off the miraculous. Will UMBC dance their way to victory again? Can Navy repeat their dominance? Or is there an underdog ready to upend the order? The tournament madness is afoot — and the stakes have never been higher.

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Care to dance? We’re diving through the men’s basketball conference tournaments to reveal our supercomputer projections for all competing teams.

Upsets. Buzzer-beaters. Improbable runs. Epic performances.

March Madness begins with the conference tournaments that go a long way toward who will get into 2026 NCAA Tournament and the seeding there.

Cinderellas will sneak in, bubbles will burst, and the cream will rise to the top.

Leagues like the ACC, Big 12 and SEC will have teams doing all they can to boost their resumes for Selection Sunday. Others will need to win their tournament to be one of 68. And sure, there are some teams that are locks to make the Big Dance but looking to improve their seeding.

We’ve simulated each conference tournament thousands of times using TRACR (Team Rating Adjusted for Conference and Roster). It’s a net efficiency metric that calculates a team’s points per possession on both sides of the ball, adjusted for the strength of the opponent.

TRACR represents how many points above or below a team is per 100 possessions. An average team is at 0.0, while a really good team might have a TRACR rating of 20 or more.

As an example, a team with a TRACR rating of 20 is projected to outscore an average team by .20 points per possession (20 divided by 100) in a game. If the game had 70 possessions, then that team would be expected to outscore the average team by 0.2*70=14 points.

We’re going to dive through each conference field, starting with the first league tourneys to get underway this week, and see who our model favors. The teams within each conference are ranked by the highest probability of winning the league tournament, with that probability in parentheses.

(Conference tournament odds for each team are their projection entering the tourney. Some conferences are still finishing their regular season; these projections will continually update after the end of each conference’s regular season.)

America East

• 1. UMBC (64.7%)
• 2. Vermont (24.1%)
• 3. UMass Lowell (4.5%)
• 4. Albany (3.2%)
• 5. NJIT (1.7%)
• 6. Maine (0.9%)
• 7. Bryant (0.5%)
• 8. New Hampshire (0.4%)

After winning the American East Tournament last year for the first time since joining the conference in 2022, Bryant has just a 0.5% chance of winning this time around. UMBC finished the regular season 14-2 in conference play and enters as the team to beat. Guards DJ Armstrong Jr. and Ace Valentine both rank in the top five in WAR in the conference.

Vermont, which split the season series with UMBC, emerges as a serious contender with a 24.1% chance of winning the tournament. TJ Long and TJ Hurley rank first and second, respectively, in the conference in DRIP.

Atlantic Sun

• 1. Central Arkansas (26.6%)
• 2. Austin Peay (25.2%)
• 3. Lipscomb (17.8%)
• 4. Queens University (16.9%)
• 5. Bellarmine (3.3%)
• 6. West Georgia (2.8%)
• 7. FGCU (2.5%)
• 8. Eastern Kentucky (2.1%)
• 9. Jacksonville (1.4%)
• 10. Stetson (0.8%)
• 11. North Florida (0.3%)
• 12. North Alabama (0.3%)

The Atlantic Sun regular season ended in a tightly contested battle, with Central Arkansas and Austin Peay both finishing 15-3 in conference play. That reinforces their status as co-favorites entering the Atlantic Sun Tournament.

Central Arkansas is powered by freshman Ty Robinson, who leads the conference in WAR (2.85), and guard Camren Hunter leads in scoring at 19.7 points per game. Austin Peay counters with senior Collin Parker, who paces the Governors in both scoring and WAR, giving them a proven option in high-leverage moments.

Even with Central Arkansas and Austin Peay holding slight statistical edges, Lipscomb and Queens remain firmly in the mix. Junior guard Mateo Esmeraldo ranks second in the conference in WAR and leads a Lipscomb team capable of stretching defenses, while Queens brings balance with six players – yes, six! – averaging 10+ points. In a single-elimination format, that depth could close the narrow gap at the top.

Big Sky

• 1. Northern Colorado (21.5%)
• 2. Portland State (21.3%)
• 3. Montana State (17.6%)
• 4. Eastern Washington (17.2%)
• 5. Weber State (7.6%)
• 6. Idaho (7.2%)
• 7. Montana (4.7%)
• 8. Idaho State (1.5%)
• 9. Sacramento State (0.9%)
• 10. Northern Arizona (0.5%)

The Big Sky Tournament should be exciting as four teams have between a 17.2% and 21.5% chance of winning the automatic NCAA bid. Montana, last year’s winner, has a 4.7% chance for a repeat due to a tough first game against Northern Colorado which, despite being the No. 5 seed, leads the Big Sky in TRACR at 9.26.

Montana State’s Jed Miller, who leads the Big Sky in WAR (4.07) and DRIP (3.5), will try to lead the Bobcats back to the title after they lost in the semifinals last season. They had won the three previous conference tournaments.

Big South

• 1. High Point (65.3%)
• 2. Winthrop (13.6%)
• 3. Charleston Southern (5.1%)
• 4. Longwood (4.6%)
• 5. Presbyterian (4.5%)
• 6. Radford (4.2%)
• 7. UNC Asheville (2.4%)
• 8. USC Upstate (0.3%)
• 9. Gardner-Webb (<0.1%)

After getting a taste of March last year, High Point looks to reclaim its place at the top of the Big South and make its second NCAA Tournament appearance in program history. The Panthers, led by senior forward Terry Anderson, finished 15-1 in conference play and have won their last 11 games. Their depth has been a defining strength, with six players ranking among the top 12 in the conference in WAR – a balance that has helped them rank first in the conference in TRACR.

However, Winthrop was the only team to hand High Point a conference loss and remains a threat, placing three players in the top five of the Big South’s WAR rankings. The Eagles have not reached the NCAA Tournament since 2021, where they lost to Villanova in the first round. 

Coastal Athletic 

• 1. UNCW (33.4%)
• 2. Hofstra (23.7%)
• 3. Charleston (14.8%)
• 4. Monmouth (8.3%)
• 5. William & Mary (6.3%)
• 6. Towson (4.0%)
• 7. Drexel (3.6%)
• 8. Campbell (3.0%)
• 9. Stony Brook (1.1%)
• 10. Elon (0.8%)
• 11. North Carolina A&T (0.6%)
• 12. Northeastern (0.3%)
• 13. Hampton (0.1%)

UNCW led the CAA during the regular season, finishing 15–3 in conference play. The Seahawks have showcased depth with seven players averaging over nine points per game, and Nolan Hodge anchored the balanced attack by finishing the regular season fifth in WAR in the conference at 2.82.

Still, the tournament sets up as a compelling race. While Charleston finished ahead of Hofstra in the conference standings, TRACR gives Hofstra the statistical edge entering March. The Pride are led by junior guard Cruz Davis, who finished the regular season as the conference’s leading scorer, positioning them as a dangerous challenger.

Horizon

• 1. Robert Morris (30.8%)
• 2. Wright State (27.6%)
• 3. Green Bay (10.9%)
• 4. Oakland (10.4%)
• 5. Northern Kentucky (7.2%)
• 6. Detroit (6.5%)
• 7. Purdue Fort Wayne (3.0%)
• 8. Milwaukee (1.9%)
• 9. Youngstown State (1.2%)
• 10. Cleveland State (0.4%)
• 11. IU Indianapolis (0.1%)

Robert Morris, last year’s Horizon League Tournament winner, is looking to go back-to-back. Although the Colonials finished behind Wright State in the regular season standings (13-7 vs. 15-5), they swept the season series and have an edge in TRACR entering the tournament. They also have two players in the top five of the Horizon League’s WAR rankings. 

Green Bay hopes to make a push, led by senior guard Preston Ruedinger, who finished in the top five of the Horizon League WAR (2.55). Oakland can’t be overlooked, either, as it holds the league’s top-ranked player in WAR (4.08), senior guard Brody Robinson.

Metro Atlantic

• 1. Siena (18.2%)
• 2. Marist (18.1%)
• 3. Merrimack (17.2%)
• 4. Saint Peter’s (15.3%)
• 5. Quinnipiac (12.3%)
• 6. Fairfield (6.3%)
• 7. Mount St. Mary’s (5.8%)
• 8. Iona (4.4%)
• 9. Sacred Heart (1.8%)
• 10. Manhattan (0.6%)

The Metro Atlantic is shaping up to be one of the more exciting conference tournaments with five teams holding more than a 12.0% chance of winning, and none with more than an 18.2% chance. 

Despite being the third seed, and ranking third in the conference in TRACR, Siena is a slight favorite to win the tournament because of its favorable path. Marist and Merrimack, the two highest-rated teams by TRACR, are on the same side of the bracket, while Siena’s first matchup is against a Mount St. Mary’s squad that ranks eighth of the 10 teams that qualified for the tournament.

Missouri Valley

• 1. Belmont (27.8%)
• 2. UNI (20.6%)
• 3. Bradley (14.3%)
• 4. Illinois State (13.6%)
• 5. UIC (7.7%)
• 6. Murray State (6.7%)
• 7. Southern Illinois (6.1%)
• 8. Valparaiso (2.1%)
• 9. Indiana State (1.0%)
• 10. Drake (0.1%)
• 11. Evansville (<0.1%)

Drake, despite three straight conference championships and trips to the NCAA Tournament – with a win over Missouri in the first round last year – has only a 0.1% chance of winning the Missouri Valley under first-year coach Eric Henderson.

While Belmont and UNI are the favorites, Bradley, led by Jaquan Johnson, has a 14.3% chance of winning the tournament. The sophomore guard ranks in the top 50 in WAR, and top 25 in DRIP, in all of college basketball this season. He’s the only player in the Missouri Valley to meet either of those criteria.

NEC

• 1. LIU (46.3%)
• 2. Mercyhurst (16.1%)
• 3. Le Moyne (14.4%)
• 4. Central Connecticut State (11.6%)
• 5. Wagner (6.3%)
• 6. Stonehill (2.7%)
• 7. Chicago State (1.4%)
• 8. FDU (1.2%)

LIU is the only team in the NEC with an above-average TRACR, which is why it’s the favorite to get the automatic bid and return to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since a 2018 loss to Radford in the First Four. 

LIU’s Jamal Fuller ranks first in the conference in WAR at 2.05, while his teammate Greg Gordon is second at 1.64. They reverse in DRIP with Gordon ranking first at 2.6 and Fuller second at 1.1.

Ohio Valley

• 1. Tennessee State (41.0%)
• 2. Southeast Missouri State (20.0%)
• 3. Morehead State (15.0%)
• 4. UT Martin (13.2%)
• 5. SIUE (6.6%)
• 6. Lindenwood (2.6%)
• 7. Little Rock (1.5%)
• 8. Eastern Illinois (0.1%)

The Ohio Valley Conference Tournament is up for grabs. Although Tennessee State and Morehead State tied for first in the regular-season standings, Tennessee State leads the conference in TRACR at 10.24. The Tigers are led by senior guard Aaron Nkrumah, the conference leader in WAR and DRIP ratings, giving them a clear edge in March.

Southeast Missouri State has a 20.0% shot of advancing to the NCAA Tournament and a 6.63 TRACR. The Redhawks finished third in the OVC standings but gave losses to both Tennessee State and Morehead State, positioning themselves as a legitimate contender. 

Patriot League

• 1. Navy (82.4%)
• 2. Boston University (6.3%)
• 3. American University (4.5%)
• 4. Colgate (3.1%)
• 5. Lehigh (1.9%)
• 6. Loyola Maryland (0.7%)
• 7. Lafayette (0.5%)
• 8. Holy Cross (0.3%)
• 9. Bucknell (0.2%)
• 10. Army West Point (0.1%)

After falling to American in last year’s Patriot League championship game, Navy entered this season with clear motivation. The Midshipmen responded by finishing 17-1 in conference play, including 13 straight wins entering the tournament. Also in TRACR, Navy has firmly established itself as the team to beat.

Boston University, American and Colgate have recent tournament success, and hope to upset Navy. American was the only team to hand the Midshipmen a conference loss, making the Eagles a particularly intriguing challenger.

Southern

• 1. East Tennessee State (29.5%)
• 2. Samford (16.8%)
• 3. Western Carolina (13.5%)
• 4. Furman (12.9%)
• 5. Mercer (11.2%)
• 6. Wofford (8.6%)
• 7. UNCG (5.2%)
• 8. Chattanooga (2.2%)
• 9. The Citadel (0.1%)
• 10. VMI (<0.1%)

The Southern Conference should have one of the more competitive conference tournaments in the country. East Tennessee State finished atop the regular season standings at 13-5 while ranking first in both defensive TRACR and overall TRACR. The Buccaneers are led by a dynamic trio of Brian Taylor II, Blake Barkley and senior forward Cam Morris III, each averaging over 14 points per game.

With Samford, West Carolina, Furman and Mercer tightly clustered behind in the standings, ETSU’s path to the championship is far from secure. Samford is powered by Jadin Booth, who leads the conference in WAR (3.32), while Mercer features two of the league’s top performers in Baraka Okojie (2.77) and Armani Mighty (2.37). Wofford’s Kahmare Holmes also ranks among the conference leaders in WAR (2.68), giving the Terriers a proven impact player capable of swinging a single-elimination matchup.

Southland

• 1. McNeese State (57.5%)
• 2. Stephen F. Austin (30.6%)
• 3. UT Rio Grande Valley (6.9%)
• 4. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (2.5%)
• 5. New Orleans (1.2%)
• 6. Nicholls (0.5%)
• 7. Houston Christian (0.5%)
• 8. Northwestern State (0.3%)

Seeking a third straight title, McNeese State enters as the overall favorite. The Cowboys are led by senior guard Javohn Garcia, who leads the conference in WAR and DRIP, and they have four players ranked among the top five in the conference in each metric, reinforcing their status as the team to beat with a 57.5% win probability. 

Stephen F. Austin, however, split the season series with McNeese and finished ahead of the Cowboys in the regular season standings at 20-2. Led by senior guard Keon Thompson, who ranks among the conference leaders in WAR, the Lumberjacks profile as the most credible challenger to the Cowboys.

Summit League

• 1. North Dakota State (38.2%)
• 2. St. Thomas (32.8%)
• 3. Denver (8.5%)
• 4. South Dakota State (8.2%)
• 5. South Dakota (5.5%)
• 6. Omaha (4.6%)
• 7. North Dakota (1.2%)
• 8. Oral Roberts (1.0%)
• 9. Kansas City (<0.1%)

After appearing in the NCAA Tournament for the first time in program history last year, Omaha enters this year’s conference tournament with just a 4.6% chance. North Dakota State has emerged as the favorite, boasting balanced scoring with six players averaging over nine points per game and three players ranked among the top six in the conference in WAR.

Although NDSU finished first in the regular season standings, St. Thomas leads the conference in overall TRACR and features a starting lineup in which every player ranks among the top 12 in the conference in WAR, with sophomore guard Nolan Minessale at No. 1.

Sun Belt

• 1. Troy (29.2%)
• 2. Marshall (22.1%)
• 3. Arkansas State (12.7%)
• 4. App State (10.4%)
• 5. South Alabama (10.2%)
• 6. Coastal Carolina (6.2%)
• 7. James Madison (3.1%)
• 8. Southern Miss (2.7%)
• 9. Texas State (2.5%)
• 10. Old Dominion (0.7%)
• 11. Georgia Southern (0.1%)
• 12. Louisiana (0.1%)
• 13. Georgia State (<0.1%)
• 14. ULM (<0.1%)

A chaotic regular season that included a six-way tie for second place gives way to a unique tournament format. Despite having the best TRACR in the Sun Belt, Arkansas State slots in at the seventh seed because of tiebreakers. The Red Wolves will have to win games on five straight days to capture the conference and qualify for the NCAA Tournament.

Meanwhile, favorites Troy and Marshall will only have to win two games. Troy ranked second in the Sun Belt in regular season TRACR, but Marshall ranked only sixth.

Troy’s Thomas Dowd leads the Sun Belt in WAR, DRIP and VAPR, and will try to lead Troy to its second straight Sun Belt title and NCAA Tournament appearance.

West Coast Conference

• 1. Gonzaga (59.8%)
• 2. Saint Mary’s (32.2%)
• 3. Santa Clara (7.3%)
• 4. San Francisco (0.5%)
• 5. Pacific (0.1%)
• 6. San Diego (0.1%)
• 7. Loyola Marymount (<0.1%)  
• 8. Portland (<0.1%)
• 9. Washington State (<0.1%)
• 10. Seattle (<0.1%)
• 11. Oregon State (<0.1%)  
• 12. Pepperdine (<0.1%)  

Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s are a clear top two in the West Coast Conference Tournament, as one of them wins in over 90% of our simulations. Both teams are locks to make the NCAA Tournament even without the automatic qualifier, while Santa Clara has some work to do. Even without an automatic bid, a notable tournament performance could get the Broncos an at-large bid due to their impressive resume. They rank 27th in TRACR.

TRACR views the top of the West Coast favorably compared to the pollsters, as Gonzaga rates third in TRACR but 12th in the AP and Coaches polls, while Saint Mary’s is seventh in TRACR and 21st in the polls. 

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The post Men’s Basketball Conference Tournaments: Predictions for NCAA Bids at Stake This Week appeared first on Opta Analyst.

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