Why the Knicks-Spurs Series Might Be the Most Unbelievable Clash in 25 Years of NBA Playoffs

But do we have a metric to determine how this series compares to series from the past?

Of course, we do. Introducing our Playoff Series Excitement Index.

The logic is simple: We want to know how late in a game viewers could’ve turned off their TV and not regretted missing out on something exciting. To do that, we used our live win probability model to determine that latest point in a game in which both teams had at least a 10% chance of winning. Then we average out the time remaining to determine the closeness of each series. For overtime games, we use 0 as the time remaining.

We are able to go back to generate live win probability outputs since the 2002 NBA postseason. Let’s dive in to see how the Knicks-Spurs series stacks up in those 25 years.

Excitement Index of Closest NBA Playoff Series (with average time remaining)

• 1. Knicks over Spurs, 2026 NBA Finals (5 games): 17.8 seconds
• 2. Grizzlies over Thunder, 2013 Conference Semifinals (5): 25.2 seconds
• 3. Cavaliers over Pacers, 2017 First Round (4): 58.5 seconds
• 4. Trail Blazers over Rockets, 2014 First Round (6): 1 minute, 10.2 seconds   
• 5. Heat over Bucks, 2020 Conference Semifinals (5): 1 minute, 15.8 seconds
• 6. Knicks over Pistons, 2025 First Round (6): 1 minute, 19.4 seconds
• 7. Hawks over Wizards, 2015 Conference Semifinals (6): 1 minute, 27.2 seconds
• 8. Mavericks over Thunder, 2011 Conference (5): 1 minute, 37.7 seconds
• 9. Cavaliers over Pistons, 2007 Conference Finals (6): 1 minute, 51.9 seconds
• 10. Warriors over Rockets, 2019 Conference Semifinals (6): 1 minute, 52.3 seconds

By this metric, the Knicks-Spurs series rates as the closest in the last 25 postseasons. In Game 1, the Knicks’ win probability surpassed 90% with 1:11 remaining. In every other game, neither team dipped below a 10% chance of winning for the final time until there were less than 10 seconds to go.

The Grizzlies-Thunder series in 2013 was a close second. All five games were decided by six points or less, with Kevin Durant trying his best to will the Thunder to victory while Russell Westbrook was sidelined by an injury suffered in the first round.

The 2017 Cavs-Pacers matchup is our highest-rated sweep, with Cleveland’s four wins by a combined 16 points. The Cavs made it all the way to the NBA Finals before falling to the Warriors.

The 2014 Blazers-Rockets series is memorable for Damian Lillard hitting a 3-pointer at the buzzer to win Game 6, but the other five games were close as well. Each one was decided by 10 or fewer points, with three games going to overtime.

It’s noticeable that no seven-games series is near the top of the list. This is partially due to an increase in the number of games leading to an increase in the opportunity for blowouts.

Excitement Index of Closest Seven-Game Series (with average time remaining)

• 1. Clippers over Grizzlies, 2012 First Round: 2 minutes, 5 seconds
• 2. Mavericks over Spurs, 2006 Conference Semifinals: 2 minutes, 19.3 seconds
• 3. Raptors over Heat, 2016 Conference Semifinals: 2 minutes, 55.1 seconds
• 4. Timberwolves over Kings, 2004 Conference Semifinals: 3 minutes, 47.7 seconds
• 5. Celtics over Bulls, 2009 First Round: 3 minutes, 57.7 seconds 

The Clippers-Grizzlies series in 2012 rates as the most exciting seven-gamer, with each one decided by 12 points or less, including two one-point and one two-point game. It was the first playoff series for the Lob City Clippers after their off-season trade for Chris Paul.

How did the rest of the 2026 playoffs series compare to the Knicks-Spurs Finals?

Excitement Index of 2026 NBA Playoff Series (with average time remaining)

• 1. Knicks over Spurs, NBA Finals (5 games): 17.8 seconds
• 2. Cavaliers over Raptors, First Round (7): 7 minutes, 1 second
• 3. Cavaliers over Pistons, Conference Semifinals (7): 7 minutes, 3.9 seconds
• 4. Pistons over Magic, First Round (7): 7 minutes, 11.9 seconds
• 5. Thunder over Lakers, Conference Semifinals (4): 7 minutes, 41.3 seconds
• 6. Lakers over Rockets, First Round (6): 9 minutes, 15.7 seconds
• 7. Spurs over Thunder, Conference Finals (7): 9 minutes, 24.9 seconds
• 8. Timberwolves over Nuggets, First Round (6): 9 minutes, 36.3 seconds
• 9. Knicks over Cavaliers, Conference Finals (4): 9 minutes, 48.5 seconds
• 10. Sixers over Celtics, First Round (7): 9 minutes, 55.1 seconds
• 11. Spurs over Timberwolves, Conference Semifinals (6): 10 minutes, 40.8 seconds
• 12. Spurs over Trail Blazers, First Round (5): 11 minutes, 23.8 seconds
• 13. Knicks over Hawks, First Round (6): 12 minutes, 21.9 seconds
• 14. Thunder over Suns, First Round (4): 13 minutes, 58 seconds
• 15. Knicks over Sixers, Conference Semifinals (4): 15 minutes, 44.2 seconds

The Cavs’ seven-game victories in their two opening series were a distant second and third to the Knicks-Spurs Finals, as each of those series were generally close but with one 20+ point blowout.

On the opposite side of the Knicks’ win over the Spurs, their sweep of the Sixers in the Eastern Conference semifinals was the least exciting series of the playoffs. Each game on average was locked up with well over a quarter remaining. 

So, then, how did Knicks-Spurs stack up against the most competitive NBA Finals since 2002?

Excitement Index of NBA Finals (with average time remaining)

• 1. Knicks over Spurs, 2026 (5 games): 17.8 seconds
• 2. Mavericks over Heat, 2011 (6): 1 minute, 54.4 seconds 
• 3. Warriors over Cavaliers, 2015 (6): 3 minutes, 57.5 seconds
• 4. Spurs over Nets, 2003 (6): 4 minutes, 5 seconds
• 5. Raptors over Warriors, 2019 (6): 4 minutes, 45.8 seconds
• 6. Heat over Thunder, 2012 (5): 4 minutes, 48.9 seconds
• 7. Bucks over Suns, 2021 (6): 4 minutes, 50.6 seconds
• 8. Celtics over Lakers, 2008 (6): 5 minutes, 17.5 seconds
• 9. Heat over Mavericks, 2006 (6): 5 minutes, 53.3 seconds
• 10. Lakers over Magic, 2009 (5): 6 minutes, 44 seconds

The Mavericks-Heat Finals in 2011 rank second to this year’s Knicks-Spurs as those six games were decided by a combined 36 points on the way to Dirk Nowitski’s long-awaited championship.

It might be surprising not to see some Finals that are considered classics in the top 10, such as the Cavaliers’ seven-game win over the Warriors in 2016 or the Heat’s seven-game triumph over the Spurs in 2013. Those series featured teams trading blowouts along with a couple of all-time games that we’ll remember forever, unlike Knicks-Spurs in 2026, where every game went down to the wire.

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The post Yes, Knicks-Spurs Really Was Great: It’s the Closest Series in the Last 25 NBA Playoffs appeared first on Opta Analyst.

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