2026-27 NBA Awards: Shocking MVP and Rookie Predictions That Could Change the Game Forever
The Opta projection model has its predictions for the 2026-27 NBA season. Now our NBA writer provides his picks for all of the top individual awards.
The 2026-27 NBA season will tip off as one of most fascinating in recent memory, given offseason changes, a potentially historically strong rookie class and a league already rich in talented players.
Which characters, if you will, are going to be the headline performers of the regular season?
Yep, it’s time to do some NBA awards predictions. Namely, we’re going to give you our picks for Most Valuable Player, Defensive Player of the Year, Rookie of the Year, Sixth Man of the Year, Most Improved Player, Clutch Player of the Year and Coach of the Year.
Most Valuable Player
The Pick: Victor Wembanyama (San Antonio Spurs)
The Why: This one feels like a slam dunk. Last season, Wembanyama finally took the leap from superstar to future all-time great – ranking first (by a mile) in our all-in-one metric DRIP, which projects a player’s contribution to a team’s plus/minus per 100 possessions.
Now, the 7-foot-4 power forward is fresh off a heartbreaking loss in the NBA Finals and dead set on staking his claim as the undisputed best player on the planet. Wembanyama will strike back, and the only thing that can stop him is the league’s 65-game requirement.
The Other Contenders: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Oklahoma City Thunder), Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets), Luka Doncic (Los Angeles Lakers) and Giannis Antetokounmpo (Miami Heat)
Defensive Player of the Year
The Pick: Victor Wembanyama (San Antonio Spurs)
The Why: Only three players have won MVP and DPOY in the same season: Michael Jordan (1987-88), Hakeem Olajuwon (1993-94) and Giannis Antetokounmpo (2019-20). Wembanyama should be the fourth, and this feels like the perfect season for him to do it.
The reason he’s so far ahead of everyone in overall DRIP is because he’s first in D-DRIP by a landslide (see all of the player rankings and projections). He’s coming off being the first-ever unanimous DPOY in the award’s history and will be the league’s best defensive player for as long as he’s in his prime – unless another alien decides to invade the planet.
The Other Contenders: Chet Holmgren (Oklahoma City Thunder), Ausar Thompson (Detroit Pistons), Rudy Gobert (Minnesota Timberwolves) and Bam Adebayo (Miami Heat)
Rookie of the Year
The Pick: Cameron Boozer (Memphis Grizzlies)
The Why: Winning ROY is often about putting up gaudy numbers while also flashing tantalizing potential. No player in this year’s class seems more poised to do that than Boozer.
The Grizzlies are at the precipice of a rebuild and will be looking to showcase their new young commodity. The Duke product also has been lauded by draft analysts for his ready-now playstyle – one that helped him finish as a finalist for the Naismith Player of the Year last season.
Since the turn of the century, only three rookies (Wembanyama, Karl-Anthony Towns and Blake Griffin) have averaged at least 18 points and eight rebounds while playing at least 50 games – and all of them won ROY. Boozer could definitely match that stat line, especially in a featured role.
The Other Candidates: AJ Dybantsa (Washington Wizards), Darryn Peterson (Utah Jazz), Caleb Wilson (Chicago Bulls) and Darius Acuff Jr. (Sacramento Kings)
Sixth Man of the Year
The Pick: Ajay Mitchell (Oklahoma City Thunder)
The Why: Mitchell was the best sixth man in the league last season (of all the candidates, he had the highest DRIP). Unfortunately for the 6-4 shooting guard, a late-season injury caused him to lose steam.
History tells us to win 6MOY, a player needs to average at least 13 PPG and play on a top-four seed in his conference. The Thunder project to be a juggernaut, and Mitchell averaged 13.6 PPG in his sophomore season.
As long as Jalen Williams can stay healthy and Mitchell isn’t forced to spend too much time in the starting lineup, he’s a no-brainer for this award.
The Other Candidates: Dylan Harper (San Antonio Spurs), Ayo Dosunmu (Minnesota Timberwolves), Sam Merrill (Cleveland Cavaliers) and Miles McBride (New York Knicks)
Most Improved Player
The Pick: Coby White (Charlotte Hornets)
The Why: This is the hardest award to predict because it’s inherently supposed to come out of nowhere. I hold the belief that, all too often, MIP goes to a young player who’s following his natural developmental trajectory. Out of principle, I’m going to avoid going down that path.
With the Hornets, White resembles the perfect blend of talent meeting opportunity. He’s always been an electric offensive player but never had sole control of the starting point guard spot. With LaMelo Ball gone and a great offensive ecosystem around him (Kon Knueppel, Brandon Miller and Naz Reid), now is the perfect opportunity for White to spread his wings. He could even go from a 17.4 PPG scorer last season to someone averaging 24-25 PPG.
The Other Candidates: Payton Pritchard (Boston Celtics), Gui Santos (Golden State Warriors), Ty Jerome (Memphis Grizzlies) and Julian Strawther (Denver Nuggets)
Clutch Player
The Pick: Cade Cunningham (Detroit Pistons)
The Why: Before last season’s winner (Gilgeous-Alexander), the first three players to take this fifth-year award were on a good team that didn’t often blow out opponents. You see, to win this award, a player needs a lot of late-game heroics, and to have a lot of those, his team needs to play in a lot of close games.
He also has to be a player who knows how to get a tough bucket. That’s why Cunningham is the perfect candidate for this award.
The 6-6 point guard finished fourth in the award’s voting last season, has the kind of midrange package that captures the admiration of fans across the NBA, and the Pistons seemed primed for a setback after a tumultuous offseason.
The Other Candidates: Luka Doncic (Los Angeles Lakers), Kyrie Irving (Dallas Mavericks), Jaylen Brown (Philadelphia 76ers) and Tyrese Haliburton (Indiana Pacers)
Coach of the Year
The Pick: Erik Spoelstra (Miami Heat)
The Why: Can you believe Spoelstra has never taken home a COY award? Well, this 19th season guiding the Heat could finally be the one.
Typically, this award goes to the leading man on a team that vastly outperforms preseason expectations. Right now, the Heat have Opta’s fifth-highest projection to win the Eastern Conference. But it wouldn’t be hard to see Spoelstra coaxing his new superstar (Giannis Antetokounmpo), do-everything big man (Bam Adebayo) and cavalcade of scrappers (including Pelle Larsson, Davion Mitchell and Andrew Wiggins) into a top-three team in the East.
If he does, Spoelstra may finally claim COY.
The Other Candidates: Charles Lee (Charlotte Hornets), Will Hardy (Utah Jazz), Mitch Johnson (San Antonio Spurs) and Darko Rajakovic (Toronto Raptors)
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The post NBA Awards: MVP, Rookie, Coach and All of the 2026-27 Season Predictions appeared first on Opta Analyst.
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