2026 NFL Draft First-Round Picks: Surprising Contenders and Dark Horses Ready to Shake Up the League

2026 NFL Draft First-Round Picks: Surprising Contenders and Dark Horses Ready to Shake Up the League

The future is now: Here are all the picks in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft.


Surely, you heard the fans booing Roger Goodell Thursday night.

They were the ones upset when their favorite team didn’t follow the pick in our Opta NFL mock draft.

Hey, give some of these teams a break – they have a right to get their pick wrong.

Some listened to the mock, of course – and plenty of teams probably got their first-round pick(s) right. The advanced data seems to agree.

The positions with the most draft selections were offensive tackle (seven), edge rusher (six) and wide receiver (five).

NFL Draft First-Round Picks

1. Las Vegas Raiders – Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana     

2025 Heisman Trophy winner’s 82.8% catchable rate was best among FBS draft prospects (minimum 150 attempts)

Graphic by Matt Sisneros.

2. New York Jets – David Bailey, Edge, Texas Tech

Led FBS players with a 33.5% pressure rate (minimum 100 pass rush opportunities) last season, and his 27 knockdowns were five more than any other player

3. Arizona Cardinals – Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame

Top 10 in FBS in 2025 in yards per carry (6.89), yards before contact (4.35), yards after contact (2.74), YPC on disrupted runs (4.33) and avoided tackles per touch (2.39)

4. Tennessee Titans – Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State

No. 1 in FBS with a 13.3 receiving yards per target last season

5. New York Giants – Arvell Reese, Edge, Ohio State

Unique versatility in college allowed him to generate a 28.1% pressure rate when lining up at edge while missing only one tackle when lined up as an off-ball LB

6. Kansas City Chiefs – Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU

Allowed receivers to get open on 37.5% of targeted plays last season, which was 21.4% better than an average defender would be expected to allow based on his target

7. Washington Commanders – Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State

Joins Ohio State teammate Arvell Reese as the only Power-4 LBs with 95%+ tackle success rate, 10%+ run disruption rate and 12+ pass rush pressures in 2025

8. New Orleans Saints – Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State

Had injury-shortened 2025 season, but ranked second in receiving yards per game over the past two seasons combined and with 18 TD catches in 21 games

9. Cleveland Browns – Spencer Fano, OT, Utah

No FBS OT had fewer true pass protection reps (210) without allowing a single QB knockdown in 2025

10. New York Giants – Francis Mauigoa, OT, Miami (FL)       

Allowed pressures on just 3.3% of his pass protection opportunities in 2025, the best rate among all RTs in FBS

11. Dallas Cowboys – Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State

Among 133 FBS safeties with 150 pass coverage snaps and 20 run game box opportunities in 2025, only Downs was both below 47% burn rate (at 40.7%) and above 9% disruption rate (15.1%)

12. Miami Dolphins – Kadyn Proctor, OT, Alabama

9% pressures allowed was slightly below average among FBS OTs in 2025, but combination of size and athleticism allowed Crimson Tide to make him the first player listed over 340 pounds to record 5+ touches since Missouri’s Josh Augusta in 2016

13. Los Angeles Rams – Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama     

Third-lowest pickable pass rate (2.57%) in 2025 among the likely draft class (minimum 150 attempts)

NFL Draft First Round Positions

14. Baltimore Ravens – Olaivavega Ioane, OG, Penn State    

As part of Penn State’s unique offense, Ioane saw snaps at TE, LT, RT, Slot, FB and OWR beyond his typical LG position

15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Rueben Bain Jr., Edge, Miami (FL)

Put up a 19%+ pressure rate and 14%+ run disruption rate in each of his three seasons with the Hurricanes

16. New York Jets – Kenyon Sadiq, TE, Oregon

4.39 40-yard dash is second-best among TEs at the NFL Combine (Vernon Davis ran 4.38 in 2006) and pairs with elite run blocking for the position (3.1 run disruption-allowed rate)

17. Detroit Lions – Blake Miller, OT, Clemson     

Dropped his pressure-allowed rates in each of his four years at Clemson from 9.7% to 8.4% to 7.3% to 5.7%

18. Minnesota Vikings – Caleb Banks, DT, Florida

Limited to three games by a foot injury in 2025 after generating 29 quarterback pressures a year earlier

19. Carolina Panthers – Monroe Freeling, OT, Georgia          

As of his selection, Freeling becomes the NFL’s 14th active OL from Georgia, tying with Michigan as the most-represented schools at the position

20. Philadelphia Eagles – Makai Lemon, WR, USC        

Finished fourth among likely FBS draftees with 4.4 burn yards per route run

21. Pittsburgh Steelers – Max Iheanachor, OT, Arizona State

Allowed zero sacks and 98.5% pressure efficiency rate with nearly 500 pass blocking plays in 2025

22. Los Angeles Chargers – Akheem Mesidor, Edge, Miami (FL)

25-year-old had an extended career due to injury and the pandemic-impacted season, but his 24.7% pressure rate in his final campaign was even better than star teammate Rueben Bain Jr. 

23. Dallas Cowboys – Malachi Lawrence, Edge, UCF

Played with great consistency over final three seasons while totaling 27.5 tackles for loss and 19.5 sacks

24. Cleveland Browns – KC Concepcion, WR, Texas A&M       

89.2% burn rate when lined up in the slot was 7.4% higher than any other FBS player in 2025

25. Chicago Bears – Dillon Thieneman, S, Oregon                        

One of four safeties in FBS last season with both 10+ run stuffs and 7+ passes defensed

26. Houston Texans – Keylan Rutledge, OG, Georgia Tech  

Finishes blocks with aggression, allowing zero sacks as a senior

27. Miami Dolphins – Chris Johnson, CB, San Diego State

Allowed just 6.9 burn yards per target last season, which was third-best among the prospective draft class

28. New England Patriots – Caleb Lomu, OT, Utah

Among 89 redshirt sophomore or younger OTs with 240+ snaps last season, none bettered Lomu’s 3.3% pressure rate allowed

29. Kansas City Chiefs – Peter Woods, DT, Clemson

Athletic enough to score two TDs on short-yardage runs last season, but dropped to 3.5 TFLs and 2.0 sacks from 8.5 and 3.0, respectively, in 2024.

30. New York Jets – Omar Cooper Jr., WR, Indiana

His 54 burns when lined up in the slot were the fourth most among all FBS players last season

31. Tennessee Titans – Keldric Faulk, Edge, Auburn  

Immediately becomes one of the biggest NFL players at his position; last season, there were only two primary edge rushers to measure at least his listed 6-6, 275 pounds

32. Seattle Seahawks – Jadarian Price, RB, Notre Dame

After 15-TD season (11 rushing), Price joined Jeremiyah Love to make Notre Dame the first school in common draft era (since 1967) to have the first top two RB selections

Teams that did not select a first-round pick: Atlanta Falcons, Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, Denver Broncos, Green Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars and San Francisco 49ers.


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The post 2026 NFL Draft First-Round Picks appeared first on Opta Analyst.

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