2026 Week 4 NFL Predictions: Unbelievable Upsets Set to Shake the League!

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With the help of the Opta supercomputer, we’re revealing the predictions for the Week 4 games of the 2026 NFL season.

In some ways, the NFL season is a long slog through the mud. The teams that succeed in the playoffs find ways to improve as the season progresses, survive attrition and find new diamonds in the rough after losing players to injury.  

Yet, in the blink of an eye, the 2026 season is almost a quarter complete.  

You can’t “win” the season in the first month, but it is possible to lose the season in just four weeks.  

Just 20-something days after the season opener, some teams are already feeling the pressure of a virtual must-win game in Week 4.  

Once considered preseason darlings, teams like the Los Angeles Chargers, Houston Texans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New England Patriots, Los Angeles Rams, Dallas Cowboys and Green Bay Packers already find themselves facing an uphill path to even making the playoffs.  

There’s a reason the NFL is king in the United States: every game matters, but Week 4 is particularly critical for those still seeking their first win.

Thursday, Oct. 1

Steelers vs. Browns

• Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Steelers 54.7% 
• All-Time Regular-Season Meetings: Steelers 81-64-1  
• Last Meeting: Browns 13, Steelers 6 (Dec. 28, 2025) 

The entire AFC North enters Week 4 with a 2-1 record, making it the most wide-open division to date, and both the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Cleveland Browns are coming off wins last week.  

Aaron Rodgers threw for 292 yards and three touchdowns in Pittsburgh’s 30-27 win over the Cincinnati Bengals last week, but he will face a stiffer test this week on Thursday Night Football.  

Rodgers is completing just 58.4% of his passes, ranking 28^th among qualified quarterbacks, and he will likely be under duress plenty often. Despite trading away Myles Garrett in the offseason, the Browns defense ranks second in the NFL with a 53.8% pressure rate. Second-year interior defensive lineman Mason Graham is among the league leaders with four sacks.  

Cleveland’s offense has been far from impressive overall, ranking 30^th at 266 yards per game. But the Browns have managed to score enough to win the last two weeks, and the team appears comfortable sticking with Deshaun Watson at quarterback. The ground game hasn’t helped much, with Cleveland averaging a league-low 3.0 yards per designed run play.  

However, the Browns have a group of young and talented pass catchers, and 60.5% of the team’s passing yards this season have come after the catch, the third-highest rate in the league. Pittsburgh’s defense ranks 13^th by allowing 5.2 yards per play after the catch.  

Sunday, Oct. 4 

Indianapolis Colts vs. Washington Commanders in London

• Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Colts 57.2% 
• All-Time Regular-Season Meetings: Colts 21-11  
• Last Meeting: Commanders 17, Colts 16 (Oct. 30, 2022) 

This is another matchup of teams coming off crucial wins, but both teams sit at 1-2. The Indianapolis Colts’ two losses have come to perennial contenders in the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens before they edged the Houston Texans with a last-minute field goal last week. The Washington Commanders lost a pair of division games to start the season before ending the Seattle Seahawks’ 12-game winning streak in Week 3.  

The Colts offense revolves around Jonathan Taylor, who is tied for the league lead with 66 carries. Indianapolis relies on JT to move the chains and open up the passing game, but that may be tough to accomplish on Sunday. The Colts dial up runs on 57.3% of their first-down plays, the fifth-highest rate in the NFL. The Commanders defense, however, allows just 3.03 yards per carry on first down, the second-lowest average in the league.  

Washington’s offense changed when QB Jayden Daniels went down with an elbow injury, but Marcus Mariota has proven to be a reliable backup. The Commanders are averaging 25 points per game but have six passes of 20 or more yards, tied for 25^th. Washington may be able to open up the playbook against a Colts defense that has allowed 7.9 yards per passing play, well above the league average of 6.5.

New York Jets vs. Chicago Bears

• Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Bears 60.2% 
• All-Time Regular-Season Meetings: Bears 9-5  
• Last Meeting: Jets 31, Bears 10 (Nov. 27, 2022) 

The Chicago Bears have been on an emotional roller coaster this season, even just through three weeks. They were a preseason darling, and fans were ready to make travel plans after the team scored 59 points in a season-opening rout. In Week 2, the Bears lost 9-3 in a rain-soaked slog to the Minnesota Vikings, with quarterback Caleb Williams suffering a hamstring injury. The Bears responded with an inspired 27-7 drubbing of the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football last week, with Case Keenum making his first start since 2023.  

The New York Jets have lost their last two games, but both were tied with under five minutes remaining in the fourth quarter, and they still have a positive point differential at 1-2.  

While Keenum was borderline-heroic on Monday night, the Bears could lean on the ground game. Chicago has rushed for over 125 yards in each of its first three games and ranks third at 5.0 yards per play on designed runs. The Jets defense has allowed a 51.9% success rate on runs, ranking 31^st.  

New York, on the other hand, has struggled to run the ball, putting much of its offense on the right shoulder of Geno Smith. The Bears defense has played with an extra defender in the box on 58.3% of snaps this season, the second most of any team. The Jets could get a few big plays in those scenarios, as Smith has a 146.8 passer rating when targeting receivers more than 20 yards downfield.  

Dallas Cowboys vs. Houston Texans

• Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Texans 57.8% 
• All-Time Regular-Season Meetings: Cowboys 4-3  
• Last Meeting: Texans 34, Cowboys 10 (Nov. 18, 2024) 

Both these teams had lofty expectations entering the season, but the Dallas Cowboys are 1-2 and the Houston Texans 0-3. This intrastate showdown isn’t far from a playoff elimination game given the historical realities of their records.

Dallas is among the league leaders by scoring 29.3 points per game, but the offense has not been generating plays in big chunks. Only 4.2% of the Cowboys’ passing plays have gone for 20 or more yards this season, ranking 30^th. The Texans defense, however, ranks 32^nd in passing explosive rate allowed at 13.8%.  

The Cowboys defense has struggled this season, but one silver lining has been its second-ranked pressure rate of 54.5%. C.J. Stroud has just a 56.4% well-throw rate when under pressure this season, well below the league average of 67.5%.   

New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills

• Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Bills 70.1% 
• All-Time Regular-Season Meetings: Patriots 79-51-1  
• Last Meeting: Bills 35, Patriots 31 (Dec. 14, 2025) 

The Buffalo Bills are riding high at 3-0, while the New England Patriots appear to be in a classic Super Bowl hangover at 1-2. Josh Allen is an early MVP favorite, and he already has six rushing touchdowns this season, moving him into the top 20 all time (85), regardless of position. If he gets seven more rushing touchdowns this season, he would move up to 12^th all-time, passing Priest Holmes, Curtis Martin, Eric Dickerson, Franco Harris and Jerome Bettis.  

The quarterback on the other sideline, however, is in desperate need of a bounce-back performance after throwing one touchdown and six interceptions in three games. Last year, New England led the league with a 134.6 passer rating on attempts more than 20 yards downfield. This year, they rank 29^th with a 39.4 rating.  

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Cincinnati Bengals 

• Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Bengals 58.7% 
• All-Time Regular-Season Meetings: Tied 13-13  
• Last Meeting: Bengals 31, Jaguars 27 (Sept. 14, 2025) 

The Cincinnati Bengals are coming off a close loss, but both teams enter Week 4 at 2-1 and feel optimistic about the season.  

Joe Burrow and the Bengals’ passing game are already cruising, with six touchdowns and one interception, and there could be some big plays available this week for Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has allowed explosive plays on 13.4% of opponents’ passing plays, ranking 30^th.  

Jacksonville’s offense has been excellent at moving the chains this season, especially on the ground, ranking fourth in the league with 27 rushing first downs and ranking third with a 52.5% rushing success rate. This could be a fascinating strength-on-strength matchup, however, because the addition of Dexter Lawrence II has transformed Cincy’s defense. The Bengals have allowed just a 34.0% success rate on designed runs.  

Green Bay Packers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Packers 57.6% 
• All-Time Regular-Season Meetings: Packers 33-23-1  
• Last Meeting: Buccaneers 34, Packers 20 (Dec. 17, 2023) 

Just like with Dallas-Houston, it will be nearly impossible for the loser of this game to claw back into the playoff picture, although the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have the benefit of playing in the wide-open NFC South. Tampa Bay is 0-3 but just a game back of the other teams in the division. The Green Bay Packers, however, are up against a wall at 1-2 in the highly competitive NFC North.  

Green Bay has had virtually no running game this season. Josh Jacobs remains on the Commissioner’s Exempt List after being accused of domestic violence, and the blocking has been dreadful, with runners gaining a league-low 1.5 yards before contact per rush. That puts a lot of pressure on quarterback Jordan Love.  

But at least Green Bay has its QB. Tampa Bay will be without Baker Mayfield, who dislocated his right thumb last week, leaving rookie Jalon Daniels to start at quarterback for a few games. With an undrafted rookie facing an above-average pass defense, the Bucs might keep in on the ground more, where the Packers rank 25^th with a 45.7% rushing success rate allowed.  

Tennessee Titans vs. Baltimore Ravens

• Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Ravens 81.1% 
• All-Time Regular-Season Meetings: Tied 11-11  
• Last Meeting: Ravens 24, Titans 16 (Oct. 15, 2023) 

In probably the biggest mismatch of the week, the Baltimore Ravens are flying high at 2-1 and the Tennessee Titans limp into Week 4 at 0-3 and averaging just 12.3 points per game.  

The Lamar Jackson-Derrick Henry duo is in top gear already, with the pair accounting for 11 total touchdowns and leading the Ravens to a second-ranked overall success rate of 53.4%. The Titans defense is above average with a 40.9% success rate allowed, but they are giving up explosive plays on 11.7% of opponents’ passing plays, ranking 27^th.  

Cam Ward’s play under center has been uninspiring, but he has limited negative plays with just one interception and five sacks. He will need to keep that up against a Baltimore defense with the fifth-highest blitz rate at 47.9%. Ward has just a 57.9% well-thrown rate against the blitz.  

Los Angeles Rams vs. Philadelphia Eagles 

• Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Rams 54.8% 
• All-Time Regular-Season Meetings: Eagles 24-18-1  
• Last Meeting: Eagles 33, Rams 26 (Sept. 21, 2025) 

Both these teams are coming off losses after entering the season with the highest of expectations. The Philadelphia Eagles are 2-1 in a very winnable NFC East, while the Los Angeles Rams, 1-2, need to be mindful not to fall too far behind in the brutally talented NFC West. The Eagles have won 10 of the last 11 matchups between these teams, including four straight since 2023.  

While the Rams have scored 28 and 26 points in the last two weeks, they would desperately like to get star receiver Puka Nacua back from a groin injury, but that remains to be determined.  

The Rams’ favorite run concept is “duo,” named because the offensive line double-teams both defensive tackles. It’s a powerful gap scheme that counts on pushing the defensive line backward. They’ve run duo 37 times this season, and no other team has run it more than 20 times. Philadelphia, however, has two star defensive tackles in Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis and is giving up just 3.2 yards per carry on duo concepts.  

Philadelphia’s offense has been inconsistent and has benefitted from a few big plays, but the Rams defense ranks fifth in explosive play rate allowed at 3.9%. The Eagles may benefit from mixing up their play-calling, as they have a 53.1% success rate when passing on first down.  

Arizona Cardinals vs. New York Giants

• Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Cardinals 51.9% 
• All-Time Regular-Season Meetings: Giants 81-46-2  
• Last Meeting: Giants 31, Cardinals 28 (Sept. 17, 2023) 

The New York Giants enter at 2-1, but the injuries keep piling up, with quarterback Jaxson Dart on injured reserve and edge defender Brian Burns out for the season with a torn ACL. The Arizona Cardinals have dropped two in a row since winning their opener, but their offense has been good, ranking above average in both rushing success rate and passing success rate.  

Quarterback Jameis Winston will start again for the Giants, and it will be interesting to see if he can put up numbers against a Cardinals defense that ranks 31^st by allowing 8.1 yards per pass play.  

Arizona’s biggest weapon on offense is Trey McBride, whose 34 targets are nine more than any other tight end in the league. The Giants have allowed 18 catches to opposing tight ends this season, tied for 22^nd.  

Miami Dolphins vs. Minnesota Vikings

• Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Vikings 78.7% 
• All-Time Regular-Season Meetings: Dolphins 7-6  
• Last Meeting: Vikings 24, Dolphins 16 (Oct. 16, 2022) 

The 3-0 Minnesota Vikings enter this game with a lot of confidence against the 0-3 Miami Dolphins but still have some questions to answer on offense.  

After suffering a concussion in Week 1, Kyler Murray is back under center for Minnesota, but he had just a 66.5 passer rating in last week’s win over the Buccaneers and the Vikings totaled just nine first downs. Limiting Murray’s scrambling has been the key to stopping him. Since he entered the league in 2019, his teams are 6-14-1 when he is held to 15 or fewer rushing yards. They are 18-10 when he has at least one rushing touchdown.  

The Dolphins have lost star running back De’Von Achane for the rest of the season with a torn ACL, and now they have to contend with a Minnesota defense that allows a league-best 31.3% success rate. The Vikings blitz on 76.1% of their defensive snaps, more than double the league average, and Dolphins QB Malik Willis has found an open receiver on just 36.8% of his passes against the blitz, the lowest among qualified quarterbacks.  

Denver Broncos vs. San Francisco 49ers

• Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: 49ers 57.5% 
• All-Time Regular-Season Meetings: Broncos 8-7  
• Last Meeting: Broncos 11, 49ers 10 (Sept. 25, 2022) 

The Denver Broncos enter 2-1 after getting quality wins over the Jaguars and Rams, but no one is feeling better about themselves entering Week 4 than the 3-0 San Francisco 49ers.  

San Francisco leads the NFC in scoring and ranks first in the NFL with a 54.6% overall success rate. Brock Purdy has gotten lots of attention after throwing nine touchdown passes to just one interception, but it has been the 49ers’ offensive line that has kept Kyle Shanahan’s offense in high gear. San Francisco rushers are gaining 3.6 yards per carry before contact, the second-best mark in the league, and Purdy has been pressured on a league-low 28.9% of passing plays. Purdy has thrown 83 pass attempts and not been sacked.

The Broncos offense ranks 29^th with a 37.0% success rate on passing plays, but they will need a better game from Bo Nix to keep up with San Francisco’s high-scoring attack.  

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders

• Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Chiefs 59.7% 
• All-Time Regular-Season Meetings: Chiefs 74-55-2  
• Last Meeting: Raiders 14, Chiefs 12 (Jan. 4, 2026) 

This is probably the game of the week, with two bitter rivals both entering this matchup at 3-0, but they took different paths to get there.  

Seeing the Kansas City Chiefs atop the league standings feels so natural that it is easy to forget how bad they were last season. Patrick Mahomes’ season-ending injury was the final blow in 2025, but Kansas City was just 6-8 with him starting. The real difference has come from having a true playmaker at running back, with Kenneth Walker III gashing opposing defenses. The Chiefs’ offensive line is just about average in terms of run blocking, so many of Walker’s big runs have come after making would-be tacklers look foolish.  

The Las Vegas Raiders are gaining just 3.2 yards per designed running play, among the bottom five teams in the league, but they remain committed to calling rushes. They rank third with a 47.4% called run rate, and one reason may be the benefits they see in play action. The Raiders have a 68.2% success rate on play-action passing concepts after hard-selling a run fake.  

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Seattle Seahawks 

• Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Seahawks 72.0% 
• All-Time Regular-Season Meetings: Seahawks 27-25  
• Last Meeting: Seahawks 37, Chargers 23 (Oct. 23, 2022) 

Both these teams are coming off Week 3 losses, but the circumstances surrounding them could not be more different. The reigning Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks had their 12-game winning streak snapped last week, but they still feel like contenders. The Los Angeles Chargers, however, are 0-3 and would basically be eliminated from the playoffs if they lose on Sunday.  

Since the playoffs expanded to at least 12 teams in 1990, only one team out of 109 has qualified for the postseason after starting 0-4. Of course, that team was the 1992 Chargers, so there is always a sliver of hope.  

The most startling part of the Chargers’ start has been the apparent regression of Justin Herbert. In 2024, Herbert started all 17 games and finished with just three interceptions. This season, he has four interceptions through three games. There is also evidence that he may even be getting lucky with his turnovers, as only 44.4% of his pickable passes (4 of 9) have been caught by the defense, while the league average is 63.5%.  

Seattle’s offense, on the other hand, has not changed at all since last season. The directive: Pass it to No. 11. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has had over 120 receiving yards in each of Seattle’s games this season and has totaled six touchdowns. Smith-Njigba has 39.7% of Seattle’s receptions, easily the highest reception share in the league, while his 48.9% share of his team’s receiving yards ranks second.  

Detroit Lions vs. Carolina Panthers

• Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Lions 56.4% 
• All-Time Regular-Season Meetings: Panthers 8-4  
• Last Meeting: Lions 42, Panthers 24 (Oct. 8, 2023) 

The Detroit Lions enter at 2-1, but there are serious questions about their defense, which has surrendered a league-worst 95 points. The Carolina Panthers, on the other hand, are 1-2 but have shown real offensive competency, and their defense has stabilized a bit after giving up a stunning 59 points in Week 1.  

Bryce Young is the league leader with 939 passing yards, and it hasn’t been just garbage-time stat-padding. He also leads the league with 11 completions of 25 or more yards, and his 10.34 air yards per attempt rank second among quarterbacks who have thrown at least 10 passes.  

Detroit’s offense remains as potent as ever, averaging 31 points per game. Jared Goff has yet to throw an interception this season, and Jahmyr Gibbs has shown he can handle the workload of a feature back while remaining just as dangerous. Gibbs is averaging 5.63 yards per carry this season on outside zone or “stretch” concepts. Carolina’s defense allows 5.0 yards per carry on those runs.  

Monday, Oct. 5 

Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints 

• Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Saints 57.9% 
• All-Time Regular-Season Meetings: Falcons 57-56  
• Last Meeting: Falcons 19, Saints 17 (Jan. 4, 2026) 

A showdown in the wide-open NFC South gets the national spotlight on Monday, with the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints both entering the week at 1-2. Atlanta enters well-rested after drubbing the Packers on Thursday Night Football in Week 3.  

With QB Michael Penix Jr. making his season debut, the Falcons put up 498 yards of total offense last week. Atlanta is good at using the screen game to keep defenses off balances, with screens making up 18.7% of their passing game. The Falcons rank second in the league by gaining 9.2 yards per screen pass.  

The Saints finally got some production out of their rushing attack last week, running for 148 yards in a narrow loss to the Raiders. New Orleans had a 59.3% rushing success rate last week after succeeding on just 34.0% of their designed runs in the first two weeks of the season.

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