2026 Week 5 NFL Predictions: Which Shocking Underdog Could Turn the Tide This Season?

With the help of the Opta supercomputer, we’re revealing the predictions for the Week 5 games of the 2026 NFL season.

We’re about at the quarter-point of the 2026 NFL season and we’re down to three undefeated teams – the Kansas City Chiefs, Minnesota Vikings and San Francisco 49ers. We also have 12 teams that are right at .500 – up from nine 2-2 teams entering Week 5 of last season. A winning record doesn’t guarantee a spot in the playoffs, but it sure helps. Since the NFL expanded to a 17-game season in 2021, 83 teams have finished with a winning record, and of those, 68 made the playoffs, or 81.9%. Week 5 begins with one of those 2-2 teams, which appears to have a good opportunity to move above .500. Here are the predictions, as of Wednesday morning, and previews for all of Week 5.

Thursday, Oct. 8

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Dallas Cowboys

• Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Cowboys 76.3%
• All-Time Regular-Season Meetings: Cowboys 14-6  
• Last Meeting: Cowboys 26, Buccaneers 24 (Dec. 22, 2024) 

The Dallas Cowboys offense is clicking behind Dak Prescott, and the team is coming off a solid road win to even their record at 2-2. It’s a completely different story for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, as their offense is sputtering behind a backup quarterback and they’re staring at their first 0-5 start in more than a dozen years.

The Cowboys are coming off Sunday’s 34-30 victory over the Houston Texans behind Prescott’s 335 passing yards with CeeDee Lamb catching a career-high 17 balls for 189 yards with a touchdown. Dallas has topped the 30-point mark in three straight games – the first time it’s done that since a five-game run in 2023 – and Prescott has 890 passing yards with six touchdowns, no turnovers and a 110.9 passer rating in those contests.

The last time Prescott played against the Buccaneers was in a wild-card game in January 2023, and the veteran QB threw four touchdown passes in Dallas’ 31-14 victory. The Cowboys have won nine of 12 meetings with the Bucs dating to 2006, and are 13-2 all-time against Tampa Bay at home.

The Bucs arrive in Texas after a sluggish showing in Sunday’s 17-14 loss to the Green Bay Packers. With Baker Mayfield sidelined, undrafted rookie QB Jalon Daniels threw for 148 yards with a touchdown and interception while being sacked three times in his first career start. The offense averaged 4.5 yards per play, and the team is averaging 16.3 points and 277 yards in its last three games.

Dallas’ defense ranks 28th in scoring (28.0 points per game), 30th in total defense (389.5 yards per game) and 32nd/last in both yards per play (6.36) and opponents’ successful play-rate (51.8), but little suggests Tampa Bay’s offense will be able to keep up with Dallas’. The Bucs have lost their last four Thursday games and one more defeat would give the team its first 0-5 start since the 2013 season, when it lost its first eight games.

Sunday, Oct. 11 

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Jacksonville Jaguars in London

• Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Jaguars 72.0%
• All-Time Regular-Season Meetings: Eagles 5-3  
• Last Meeting: Eagles 28, Jaguars 23 (Nov. 3, 2024) 

The Jacksonville Jaguars begin their London residency against the Philadelphia Eagles at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, where they’re 2-1. They are 7-7 all-time in London, which includes a 24-18 loss to the Eagles in 2018 in Philadelphia’s only other trip to the United Kingdom’s largest city.

The Jaguars cross the Atlantic after holding on for a 22-17 win over the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday to improve to 3-1. The defense came up with two big red-zone stops in the fourth quarter to keep the Bengals off the scoreboard, and Trevor Lawrence passed for 227 yards and a touchdown to bring his season total to eight. On the season, Jacksonville ranks fourth in successful play-rate at 48.4, while Philadelphia (2-2) has the league’s fourth-lowest successful play-rate at 37.4, and might be without several stars on offense.

Already playing without wide receiver DeVonta Smith (hamstring) and tight end Dallas Goedert (knee), running back Saquon Barkley injured his hamstring in Sunday’s 24-20 loss to the Los Angeles Rams, and his status is uncertain ahead of the quick weekender to England. The Eagles are planning to leave for London on Friday, taking a similar approach as the Rams did in Week 1, when they arrived in Australia just a day before their season opener. That plan famously backfired on the Rams, as they appeared sluggish in a lopsided loss.

Philadelphia has already looked like it spent halftime of its last two games on a transatlantic flight. Last Sunday, the Eagles blew a 20-10 halftime lead, mustering just 72 yards in the second half. This came after it managed only 62 second-half yards in its Week 3 loss to the Chicago Bears. Philadelphia won’t have All-Pro offensive tackle Lane Johnson after he suddenly retired on Tuesday, and the team now faces a Jacksonville defense that ranks second in scoring at 13.3 points per game.

The Eagles have won the last five meetings with the Jaguars after Jacksonville won the first three matchups in the series. In the last meeting in Week 9 of 2024, Barkley rushed for 159 yards with a 19-yard touchdown and caught three passes for 40 yards – including a 20-yard score – in Philadelphia’s 28-23 win. Barkley has rushed for 375 yards in three career games against the Jags.

Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers

• Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Bears 57.4%
• All-Time Regular-Season Meetings: Packers 108-96-6  
• Last Meeting: Bears 31, Packers 27 (Jan. 10, 2026) 

For the past two decades the Green Bay Packers–Chicago Bears rivalry has been completely one sided – especially at Lambeau Field, where the Packers have won 15 of the last 18 meetings – but given their recent history, coupled with what these teams have shown on the field in the last few weeks, there could be a shift of power in this series. Chicago (3-1) and Green Bay (2-2) renew their storied rivalry, meeting for the first time since the Bears rallied for an improbable 31-27 win in the 2025 wild-card round – a game that Bears fans still revel in and Packers fans would like to forget.

The quarterback who engineered that frantic comeback, Caleb Williams, is nursing a hamstring injury, so it will be Tyson Bagent getting the start under center after leading the Bears to an emphatic 23-12 win over the New York Jets on Sunday. It may have been the most lopsided 11-point win in NFL history, as Chicago outgained the Jets 492-157 in total yards, stopped all seven of New York’s third-down attempts and had more first downs (34) than the Jets had offensive plays (32). Kyle Monangai rushed for 146 yards and two touchdowns and ranks sixth in the NFL in rushing average at 5.40 yards per carry. The defense, which faced plenty of criticism after surrendering 478 yards and 37 points in Week 1, has allowed 28 total points and an average of 217 yards in the last three games.

Green Bay’s offense had another rocky performance in Sunday’s 17-14 win over a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team starting undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels at quarterback. Jordan Love threw for 197 yards with two touchdowns but also had a fourth-quarter interception, and running back Kaleb Johnson lost a fumble in the final period. The good news for Love is he was only hit twice against the Bucs after being hit an NFL-high 30 times in the season’s first three weeks. He now faces a Bears defense that has the league’s second-highest sack rate at 9.2.

Cleveland Browns vs. New York Jets

• Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Jets 57.1%
• All-Time Regular-Season Meetings: Tied 15-15 
• Last Meeting: Jets 27, Browns 20 (Nov. 9, 2025) 

The New York Jets were riding high with a Week 1 victory but have since lost three in a row. So Jets. The Cleveland Browns, meanwhile, opened the season with a discouraging 24-point defeat. So Browns. Yet in very un-Browns-like fashion, they’ve now won three straight games and enter Week 5 with additional rest having been off since last Thursday’s 27-24 victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Cleveland’s defense is leading the surge, as it picked off Aaron Rodgers twice and sacked him five times, and now has four interceptions and 11 sacks during the win streak – the franchise’s longest since a four-game run in 2023. The defense now takes aim at a New York offense that is coming off one its least productive showings in decades – which is saying something given the team’s history.

In Sunday’s 23-12 loss to the Chicago Bears, the Jets totaled 157 yards and didn’t convert a third-down attempt while holding the ball for just 17 minutes, 15 seconds. It was the first time since at least 1990 they had so little time of possession while totaling fewer than 160 yards without a third-down conversion. Geno Smith completed just eight passes and was sacked three times and has now been sacked 12 times during New York’s skid. The Browns’ pressure rate of 61.8 in the last three weeks is the second highest in the NFL.

In the last meeting between these teams in Week 10 of last season, the Jets pulled away for a 27-20 win for their third victory in the last four matchups. Breece Hall, who sat out New York’s loss to the Bears with a quad injury sustained in Week 3 and is considered week to week, has totaled 311 scrimmage yards and three receiving TDs in three career games against Cleveland.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

• Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Steelers 57.3%
• All-Time Regular-Season Meetings: Steelers 22-8 
• Last Meeting: Steelers 27, Colts 20 (Nov. 2, 2025) 

In a vacuum, this meeting between 2-2 AFC teams with similar scoring differentials (the Indianapolis Colts ranking 16th at minus-2 and the Pittsburgh Steelers at 19th at minus-10) appears to be evenly matched. But there is no such thing as playing in a controlled environment in the NFL, as every game has its own idiosyncrasies. In this one, the Steelers should be well-rested after coming off a mini-bye, having been off since last Thursday’s 27-24 loss to the Cleveland Browns. For the Colts, they might be feeling the effects of some excessive travel as they go on the road again following a trip to the U.K.

Good news for Indianapolis is it returns stateside with a second straight win under its belt after beating the Washington Commanders 30-13 in London on Sunday. Jonathan Taylor rushed for 95 yards and two touchdowns and Daniel Jones scored on a 4-yard run while averaging just 4.21 yards on his 34 pass attempts, totaling a season-low 143 passing yards. Jones threw another interception, giving him one in each of the first four games.

His Pittsburgh counterpart, Aaron Rodgers, threw a pair of picks against the Browns and was sacked five times, bringing his season total to 13 – tied with Baker Mayfield for the most in the NFL. T.J. Watt got a sack of his own, and now has 4.5 on the season. His adjusted-sack rate of 9.4 leads all edge rushers with a minimum of 60 pass rushes.

Watt had one of Pittsburgh’s five sacks of Jones in the Steelers’ 27-20 win over the Colts in Week 9 of last season. That marked Pittsburgh’s fifth straight home victory in the series, and dating back to 1974, the Steelers are 17-1 at home against the Indianapolis franchise (including three playoff wins).

Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans

• Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Texans 67.2%
• All-Time Regular-Season Meetings: Tied 24-24  
• Last Meeting: Texans 16, Titans 13 (Nov. 16, 2025) 

The Houston Texans entered this season with lofty expectations after matching a franchise record with 12 wins and reaching the divisional round of the playoffs a year ago. A month into the season, however, and they’re still seeking their first win and find themselves with the same record as a Tennessee Titans team no expert figured would be in the playoff conversation. The Texans were in a similar position last year, having started 0-3 before winning 12 of their next 14 to make the playoffs, but the only team to start a season 0-4 and make the postseason was the 1992 San Diego Chargers.

Houston allowed a pair of fourth-quarter touchdowns in Sunday’s 34-30 home loss to the Cowboys, but the defense should fare better against a Titans team that ranks 31st in scoring at 13.8 points per game and last in total offense at 261.3 yards per game. Cam Ward topped the 200-yard mark for the first time this season in Week 4, throwing for 222 yards with his lone touchdown pass coming with just over a minute to play in a 24-18 loss to the Baltimore Ravens. The Titans rank last in the NFL in scoring efficiency at 26.3% (10 scoring drives on 38 offensive possessions).

Houston’s offense, meanwhile, is in much better shape, especially with Nico Collins back on the field. Collins returned Sunday after missing the previous two games with a hamstring injury and caught seven passes for 118 yards with 7- and 22-yard touchdowns to provide a spark to an offense that totaled 23 points in the two games he missed. C.J. Stroud has a 118.7 passer rating and is averaging 9.0 yards per attempt when Collins is on the field compared to a 78.9 QB rating and an average of 6.0 yards per thrown when he is on the sideline.

When these teams met in Nashville in Week 11 last season, the Texans won 16-13 on Matthew Wright’s 35-yard field goal as time expired. Houston has won three in a row over Tennessee and six of the last seven meetings.

New York Giants vs. Washington Commanders 

• Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Commanders 60.2%
• All-Time Regular-Season Meetings: Giants 107-74-5  
• Last Meeting: Commanders 29, Giants 21 (Dec. 14, 2025) 

Despite some shaky quarterback play, the New York Giants are alone atop the NFC East. The last-place Washington Commanders also have their fair share of issues at QB but help could be on the way in this matchup between division rivals.

The Giants improved to 3-1 with Sunday’s 36-24 win over the Arizona Cardinals as Jameis Winston threw for 250 yards and three touchdowns. While he directed three touchdown drives after New York failed to score a TD in the previous two games, he also threw two interceptions and was sacked four times. Among the 34 QBs with 40+ attempts, Winston’s well-thrown rate of 63.6 is the lowest in the NFL. It’s possible a change at QB could be coming soon with the recent addition of J.J. McCarthy.

The Commanders also could have a new signal-caller this week with Jayden Daniels close to returning from a dislocated left elbow which sidelined him the last two games. Backup Marcus Mariota injured his right knee on the second drive of Sunday’s 30-13 loss to the Indianapolis Colts in London, giving way to rookie Athan Kaliakmanis. The seventh-round pick out of Rutgers completed 15 of 33 passes for 186 yards with a touchdown and an interception as Washington fell to 1-3. Mariota rushed for 35 yards on a QB keeper before exiting, but Washington only had five other plays go for more than 10 yards.

The Commanders have swept the two-game season series from the Giants each of the last two years after winning just two of the previous 11 matchups. Washington hasn’t won five straight games over New York since a six-game run from 1981-84.

Minnesota Vikings vs. New Orleans Saints

• Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Vikings 54.9%
• All-Time Regular-Season Meetings: Vikings 21-12  
• Last Meeting: Vikings 27, Saints 19 (Nov. 12, 2023) 

The wins keep coming for the Minnesota Vikings even though the touchdowns aren’t. The Minnesota offense has a golden opportunity to get untracked this week against an inferior New Orleans Saints defense playing on a short week.

Playing without Justin Jefferson because of an ankle injury that could sideline him again this week, the Vikings topped 250 yards for the first time this season last Sunday against the Miami Dolphins but failed to reach the end zone in a 15-10 victory. Incredibly, this marked the second time Minnesota won despite not scoring a touchdown.

The Vikings improved to 4-0 and continue to defy the odds, as they’re averaging a league-low 4.40 yards per play and rank 31st in both successful play-rate at 31.4 and in TD efficiency at 13.3 (six touchdowns on 45 drives). They now get to face a Saints team that allowed 215 passing yards and 205 rushing yards in Monday’s 45-24 home loss to the Atlanta Falcons. New Orleans is allowing an NFL-worst 32 points per game and ranks 31st in opponents’ successful play-rate at 51.2.

On the other end of the spectrum is Minnesota’s defense, which is first in scoring (12.8 points per game) and opponents’ successful play-rate (30.7) and has a league-high 16 sacks. They join the 2019 New England Patriots as the only team in the last dozen seasons to have allowed four or fewer offensive touchdowns while registering at least 16 sacks in the first four games of a season.

Minnesota’s pass rush – led by Dallas Turner’s 5.5 sacks and pressure rate of 29.7 – now looks to torment Tyler Shough, whose 12 times being sacked are one shy of the NFL high.

These teams haven’t met since Week 10 in 2023, with the Joshua Dobbs-led Vikings winning 27-19.

Las Vegas Raiders vs. New England Patriots

• Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Patriots 60.5%
• All-Time Regular-Season Meetings: Patriots 18-17-1  
• Last Meeting: Raiders 20, Patriots 13 (Sept. 7, 2025) 

The reigning AFC champion New England Patriots picked up a much-needed win this past weekend, and Drake Maye played well down the stretch in a bounce-back performance after getting off to a disastrous start to the season. The Las Vegas Raiders are also coming off a bit of a confidence-builder despite suffering their first loss of the season in Week 4. They’ll look to get back on track as they travel to New England to face a Patriots team seeking to build on its best showing of the season.

Maye threw three touchdown passes – the last a 23-yarder to Efton Chism, who hauled it in with one hand with 1:50 remaining – to rally the Pats to a 29-26 road win over the previously unbeaten Buffalo Bills. New England’s 29 points matched its offensive total from its first three games. Maye overcame two first-half turnovers, bringing his season total to an NFL-high nine, and showed some moxie down the stretch, posting a 124.2 passer rating in the fourth quarter after registering a 35.5 fourth-quarter QB rating in the first three weeks. He also used his legs, scrambling four times for 55 yards after scrambling for 50 yards on 13 occasions in the three September games.

While the Pats mounted a fourth-quarter comeback on Sunday, the Raiders’ comeback bid came up just short in a 30-27 loss to the unbeaten Chiefs. It’s the first blemish on Las Vegas’ record, but the team showed it can hang with one of the NFL’s best, and the team expressed renewed confidence following the defeat. Kirk Cousins passed for 365 yards and two touchdowns, and Brock Bowers played through an illness to catch six passes for 86 yards and a TD, while fellow tight end Michael Mayer had eight receptions for 82 yards. The Raiders had six scoring drives, upping their season total to 22 – tied with the Bills, Cowboys and Carolina Panthers for the most in the NFL – and twice as many as the Patriots’ 11, which is one more than the winless Dolphins and Titans for the fewest in the league. It will be a tough challenge for Maye and Co. to keep up with Cousins and the high-powered Raiders.

These teams met in Week 1 of last season, with the Raiders winning 20-13 for their third straight victory in the series after they lost the previous six matchups. This is Las Vegas’ longest active winning streak against any team.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Miami Dolphins 

• Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Bengals 67.3%
• All-Time Regular-Season Meetings: Dolphins 17-9  
• Last Meeting: Bengals 45, Dolphins 21 (Dec. 21, 2025) 

After back-to-back disappointing losses to drop their record to 2-2, a matchup against the winless Miami Dolphins should be just what the banged-up Cincinnati Bengals need to get back in the win column.

The Bengals followed up a three-point loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 3 with a 22-17 setback to the Jaguars on Sunday, their comeback bid ending when running back Chase Brown was tackled at the 12-yard line – 1 yard shy of a first down with 50 seconds remaining. Concerning for the Bengals is the health of their top wide receiver tandem, as All-Pro Ja’Marr Chase sustained a concussion in the second quarter and Tee Higgins suffered a groin injury in the fourth. Higgins had 11 catches for 157 yards before exiting, and Bengals coach Zac Taylor called his injury “day to day” on Monday. With Chase out, rookie Dohnte Meyers stepped up with seven receptions for 82 yards.

Although they were depleted at receiver, the Bengals stayed committed to the pass. Not a huge surprise seeing as Brown rushed seven times for a mere 10 yards and Samaje Perine carried the ball three times for seven. Joe Burrow was also once again on target, with 49 of his passes deemed well-thrown. On the season, his well-thrown rate of 91.6 tops the NFL by a wide margin.

Despite possibly being short-handed, the Bengals still appear to have more offensive firepower than the Dolphins, who have scored 13, 13, 10 and 10 in losing their first four games. Since 2002, the only other NFL teams to fail to score more than 13 points in any of their first four games were the 2004 Dolphins and – wait for it – the 2019 Dolphins. In Sunday’s 15-10 loss to the unbeaten Minnesota Vikings, Malik Willis completed 9 of 17 passes for 85 yards, and in their first game without De-Von Achane, backup running back Ollie Gordon II rushed for 100 yards, with 53 coming on one run. Miami ranks last in successful play-rate at 30.0 and heads into Week 5 as the only NFL team not to hold a lead for any point this season.

When these teams met in Week 16 of last season, Burrow threw for 309 yards and four touchdowns in Cincinnati’s 45-21 win at Miami.

Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers

• Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Broncos 57.6%
• All-Time Regular-Season Meetings: Broncos 73-58-1  
• Last Meeting: Broncos 19, Chargers 3 (Jan. 4, 2026) 

It’s been an uneven start to the season for the Denver Broncos, as they enter Week 5 with a 2-2 mark one year after they rolled to the AFC West crown behind a 14-3 record. The Los Angeles Chargers would love to have the Broncos’ .500 record as they are still in search of their first win a season after going 11-6. Despite their ugly record, Justin Herbert and the Chargers may be catching Denver at an opportune time.

In Sunday’s 24-14 defeat to the 49ers, the Broncos lost both starting cornerbacks to injury with two-time All Pro Patrick Surtain II suffering a non-contact injury to his right ankle and Riley Moss hurting his ribs. The Niners took full advantage of the situation, scoring touchdowns on three straight second-half drives to put the game away after being held to three first-half points. Backup corners Kris Abrams-Draine and Jahdae Barron have struggled in coverage in limited work, with Abrams-Draine being burned on one of the two times he’s been targeted and Barron on four of five targets. If neither Surtain nor Moss are able to play this weekend, that would give Herbert a chance to break out of his early funk.

Herbert is completing a career-low 59.7% of his passes with six interceptions and 11 pickable passes for a league-worst 9.65 pickable pass rate. This comes after his 2025 pickable pass rate of 2.84 ranked sixth among the 34 QBs with 200+ attempts. In Sunday’s 30-23 loss to the Seattle Seahawks, Herbert finished with a season-low 189 passing yards and was sacked four times, raising his season total to 12. Despite throwing a high percentage of his throws into harm’s way, Herbert is also throwing to open receivers at a high rate with his open-target percentage of 78.1 above the league average of 75.4. If his receivers can get open against a depleted Denver secondary, the Chargers should have some luck moving the ball through the air.

These AFC West rivals split their two 2025 meetings, with the Chargers winning 23-20 at home in Week 3 and the Broncos winning the rematch 19-3 in the season finale playing against mostly Los Angeles backups to secure the AFC’s top seed. The Chargers are 5-1 all-time against Denver at SoFi Stadium.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks

• Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Seahawks 60.8%
• All-Time Regular-Season Meetings: Seahawks 31-23  
• Last Meeting: Seahawks 41, 49ers 6 (Jan. 17, 2026) 

When these NFC West rivals last met in January, a berth in the NFC championship game was on the line. The stakes aren’t quite as high this go-round, but first place in the division is up for grabs when the 4-0 San Francisco 49ers visit the reigning Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks.

In the last matchup in that divisional round game at Lumen Field, the Seahawks made quick work of the 49ers, rolling to a 41-6 beatdown. Rashid Shaheed returned the opening kickoff for a touchdown, former Seahawk Kenneth Walker III rushed for three TDs and the defense forced three turnovers.

Anchored by Leonard Williams and DeMarcus Lawrence, the defense of the Seahawks (3-1) is once again leading the way. In their 30-23 win over the Chargers, they forced four turnovers and sacked Justin Herbert four times to give them 11 sacks on the season. Their eight takeaways are one shy of the Raiders for the NFL lead, while their 4.00 opponents’ yards per play tops the NFL. They’ll go up against a Niners team that ranks first in yards per play at 6.82, first in successful play-rate at 51.8 and first in touchdown efficiency at 42.1 (16 TDs on 38 drives).

Brock Purdy incredibly still hasn’t been sacked while piling up 1,007 passing yards, an 11-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and an NFL-best 126.2 passer rating. In Sunday’s 24-14 victory over the Broncos, Purdy scrambled and found a wide-open Deebo Samuel Sr. for a 1-yard touchdown in the third quarter. Later in the fourth, he threw a pass behind the line of scrimmage to George Kittle, who rumbled 56 yards for a touchdown. The pass in the flat to Kittle came out of shotgun, and Purdy’s 131.3 passer rating in that formation leads the NFL.

Detroit Lions vs. Arizona Cardinals

• Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Lions 60.3%
• All-Time Regular-Season Meetings: Lions 36-28-6  
• Last Meeting: Lions 20, Cardinals 13 (Sept. 22, 2024) 

The Detroit Lions have alternated wins and losses this season, but one thing has been consistent – a potent offense paired with a susceptible defense. The Arizona Cardinals have lost three straight games since opening with a win, and similarly to the Lions, their defense has been vulnerable. Unlike Detroit, however, their offense doesn’t offer much firepower.

Led by Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs and Amon-Ra St. Brown, the Lions ranks third in successful play-rate (49.4), fifth in scoring average (29.8) and sixth in yards per game (389.3). Despite that production, Detroit sits at 2-2, no thanks to a defense that ranks last in yards allowed per game (423.8) and 31st in points allowed per game (31.8). In Sunday’s 32-26 loss at Carolina, Goff threw for 412 yards, but the defense allowed the Panthers to score on six of their first seven drives to put the game away. Detroit’s offense should be able to again move the ball without much trouble against a Cardinals team that has allowed more than 30 points in each of its last three games. The last time the franchise yielded more than 30 points in four straight games was back in 1954, which the Chicago Cardinals allowed 41, 35, 31, 31, 35 in starting 0-5.

While the Lions offense should fare well, a game against Arizona might also be the perfect elixir for a beleaguered defense, seeing as the Cardinals’ average of 4.48 yards per play ranks 31st and their five plays of 20+ yards are the fewest in the NFL. In Sunday’s 36-24 loss to the Giants, Jacoby Brissett threw for 166 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions, averaging 4.74 yards per attempt. His season average of 5.38 yards per pass is the lowest among qualifying QBs.

The Lions won the last meeting 20-13 in Week 3 of 2024 for their third straight victory in the series. They have five wins and a tie since their last loss to the Cardinals in 2015.

Baltimore Ravens vs. Atlanta Falcons 

• Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Falcons 60.2%
• All-Time Regular-Season Meetings: Ravens 5-2  
• Last Meeting: Ravens 17, Falcons 9 (Dec. 24, 2022) 

The Baltimore Ravens are off to a strong 3-1 start, but their fanbase is a little uneasy after Lamar Jackson suffered a left ankle injury in Week 4, leaving his status uncertain for “Sunday Night Football.” The Atlanta Falcons improved to 2-2 with their win on Monday night, and their fans are on cloud nine after watching their offense put together another brilliant performance with Michel Penix Jr. on the field.

In Baltimore’s 24-18 victory over the winless Titans, Jackson’s ankle appeared to roll under a defender when he was sacked in the final seconds of the first half, and he didn’t play after halftime with Tyler Huntley taking over. In the first two quarters, the Ravens scored on four of six drives, racking up 268 yards with Jackson compiling a 144.2 passer rating. In the second half, the Ravens totaled 116 yards and failed to score on their first five drives before running out the clock. Jackson missed four games last season and Baltimore limped to an 8-9 finish and injuries to the two-time league MVP also derailed the Ravens’ 2021 and ’22 seasons. Baltimore has been forced to ride with Huntley before, but the team is just 4-7 in his starts.

The Falcons improved to 2-0 in games started by Penix this season with Monday’s 45-24 thrashing of the New Orleans Saints. It’s been a night and day difference for the offense when Penix is on the field. After totaling 16 points and 524 yards in losing their first two games, the Falcons averaged 40 points and 459 yards in winning their last two.

Bijan Robinson also had another huge game on Monday, rushing for 145 yards with touchdown runs of 59 and 4 yards. His 494 rushing yards rank second, as does his average of 3.84 yards before contact.

It was Christmas Eve 2022 that these teams last met, with the Ravens winning 17-9. And the last time Jackson faced the Falcons was way back in Week 13 of 2018, in just his third career start. He had 125 yards passing and 75 yards rushing and a score in a 26-16 victory.

Monday, Oct. 12 

Buffalo Bills vs. Los Angeles Rams 

• Opta Supercomputer’s Win Probability: Rams 62.9%
• All-Time Regular-Season Meetings: Bills 9-6  
• Last Meeting: Rams 44, Bills 42 (Dec. 8, 2024) 

The Week 5 schedule concludes with what many probably would’ve viewed as a potential Super Bowl preview on the season’s onset. The Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Rams are still tracking toward making deep playoff runs, but both have also shown some signs of weakness. The Bills will look to bounce back from their first loss of the season when they travel across the country for a showdown with a Rams team seeking to build on a resilient win.

Buffalo ranks first in scoring offense (31.8 points per game), first in plays of 20+ yards (22) and Josh Allen’s average of 8.73 yards per attempt ranks third. Allen, though, threw a bad interception at the end of Sunday’s game against New England, and the defense struggled again, this time allowing 29 points to a much-maligned Patriots offense that had scored 29 points in its first three games. Buffalo finished with 26 points and has totaled 50 points and 690 total yards in the last two games – impressive numbers – but Allen and Co. set a high bar after combining for 77 points and 855 yards in the first two weeks.

The Rams are coming off a gritty, 24-20 road win over the Eagles, rallying from a 10-point, fourth-quarter deficit with Kyren Williams scoring a pair of touchdowns in the final four minutes. This came one week after Los Angeles blew a 16-0 second-half lead in a 30-26 loss to the Broncos. Puka Nacua returned last week after missing the previous two games with a hip injury and finished with nine receptions for 125 yards as well as a rushing touchdown on a jet sweep. Nacua is averaging 11.79 burn yards per target while Davante Adams’ burn yards per target average of 15.85 ranks fifth out of the 44 receivers targeted more than 20 times. The star receiving duo pose mismatch problems for a Buffalo secondary that yields a burn-allowed percentage of 55.6 – the league’s sixth-highest mark.

The last time these teams met in Week 14 of 2024, they put on a show with the Rams withstanding a furious fourth-quarter rally and an historic performance by Allen for a 44-42 victory. Allen passed for 342 yards and became the first player in NFL history with three passing touchdowns and three running TDs in a game. The Bills scored 21 points in the final period but it wasn’t enough. Matthew Stafford passed for 342 yards and two touchdowns – the last on a 19-yarder to Nacua with 1:54 to play. Nacua finished with 12 receptions for 162 yards and also scored his first career rushing TD.

In three career games against the Rams, Allen has completed 72 of 101 passes for 950 yards with 10 TDs, three interceptions and a 121.3 passer rating with another five rushing scores.

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