Unlock Hidden Value: Why Betting Against the Chiefs Could Be Your Smartest NFL Week 12 Move

Is Kansas City really just a 3-point underdog against Indianapolis this week? On paper, the Chiefs sit at an unimpressive 5-5, trailing the Colts’ 8-2 record and crouching outside the AFC playoff picture. Yet, dig a little deeper—or maybe a lot deeper—and you’ll see their so-called “losses” read like a who’s who of NFL heavyweights, not some easy pats on the back. The Colts, meanwhile, have padded their stats against some of the league’s lightest schedules, making their shiny record feel a bit like smoke and mirrors. So, when sportsbooks shave KC off their opening spread from -3.5 to -3, I ask: Is the market underestimating one of the toughest teams facing arguably the softest schedule? With Mahomes ready to strike and a defense coached by the mastermind Steve Spagnuolo, this match-up could expose just how overrated the Colts really are—especially when you factor in their porous rush defense and a key injury to DeForest Buckner. Here’s why my money’s on the Chiefs turning heads this Sunday, and why you might want to rethink the narrative that wins and losses paint the full picture. LEARN MORE

The first click I’m making in NFL Week 12 is on the Kansas City Chiefs (5-5) to win by margin at home vs. the Indianapolis Colts (8-2) Sunday. Kansas City opened as -3.5 favorites, but fell to an expensive -3 Monday at most sportsbooks. KC is ninth in the AFC after Week 11, meaning they are outside the playoff picture, while Indy is third with a two-game lead in the AFC South.

Last week, the Chiefs closed as -4 favorites at the Denver Broncos, and Kansas City closed as -2.5 favorites at the Buffalo Bills in Week 9. Granted, KC lost both games: 28-21 to Buffalo and 16-13 to Denver. Yet, I have the Broncos and Bills power-rated higher than the Colts, so the Chiefs should be at least -5 favorites in this spot.

This spread is an overreaction to their records, but as a bettor, I try to ignore records and just focus on the matchup. That said, Indianapolis’s record is misleading because it’s played the 30th-toughest schedule, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF). Kansas City, on the other hand, has played the toughest schedule.

KC’s losses aren’t that bad. The Chiefs lost to a healthy Los Angeles Chargers in Brazil in Week 1, the reigning Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles without WR Rashee Rice in Week 2, a fluky loss at the Jacksonville Jaguars, who are 6-4 on the current 7-seed in the AFC, 2024-25 NFL MVP Josh Allen in Buffalo, and an 8-2 Broncos team in Denver.

Plus, I’m not impressed by Indy’s resume. The Colts beat the Broncos 29-28 at home in Week 2 because of a bogus personal foul penalty charged to Denver when Indianapolis missed the would-be game-winning field goal. Indy’s other good win was over the Chargers, who were missing both starting tackles and their top two running backs.

Ultimately, the market is backing the Colts here because they are the best rushing team in the league, featuring the odds-on favorite to win 2025-26 NFL Offensive Player of the Year, RB Jonathan Taylor (-370 at DraftKings), and Kansas City’s rushing defense is mediocre to below-average.

But KC’s best defense will be offense. Indianapolis’s defense is 27th in rushing success rate allowed and is missing its best interior defensive lineman, DT DeForest Buckner. Chiefs C Creed Humphrey is PFF’s highest graded center, and they will be able to run the ball between the tackles, which will bring Indy’s defensive backs into the box, and allow Patrick Mahomes to take deep shots.

Also, the Chiefs have game-wreckers on all three levels of their defense, and DC Steve Spagnuolo is one of the best defensive minds in the NFL. If Kansas City can jump out to an early lead, and Indianapolis needs to throw from behind, I’ll take my chances with QB Daniel Jones vs. a Spags’ defense Sunday.

Finally, 10 games isn’t a big sample size, and Jones and the Colts will come back down to earth, beginning this week. Their remaining schedule includes KC, two games vs. the Houston Texans, with one of the best defenses in the NFL, two games vs. Jacksonville, the 7-3 Seattle Seahawks, and the 7-4 San Francisco 49ers.

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. Track my NFL 2025-26 bets here.