Can the Maple Leafs Defy the Odds and Snag a Top Pick in the 2026 NHL Draft Lottery?
The latest projections have Vancouver leading the lottery field with a 25.5 percent chance at the first overall pick. Chicago follows at 13.5 percent, then the Rangers at 11.5 percent, and the Flames at 9.5 percent. Toronto’s fifth-place position comes with an 8.5 percent shot at the first overall selection, which keeps them clearly in the conversation even if they are not among the three heaviest favorites.
Those same models show how the odds flatten slightly as you move down the board. Toronto’s fifth-place odds at the second overall pick sit in the mid-single-digits, only a touch behind Calgary and not dramatically lower than the teams above them. The league’s current lottery structure caps how far a team can move up or down, and that constraint creates a tight band of outcomes for the clubs in Toronto’s tier.
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