Can the Maple Leafs Defy the Odds and Snag a Top Pick in the 2026 NHL Draft Lottery?
Most Likely Maple Leafs Outcomes
From a pure probability standpoint, the most likely outcome for the Maple Leafs remains a pick close to their current slot. The lottery is still a major swing point, but it is not an open-ended climb. With the Canucks and Blackhawks locked into the top two odds and the Rangers and Flames sitting just ahead, Toronto’s most realistic range runs from first overall in a best-case to the back half of the top ten if the balls bounce against them.
The bigger layer for Toronto is the condition on their 2026 first-round pick. The Leafs sent that pick to Boston as part of the deal for Brandon Carlo, with top-five protection attached. If Toronto’s pick lands inside the top five after the lottery, they keep it and instead owe Boston a future unprotected first. If it falls to sixth or lower, the Bruins get this year’s selection and the Leafs keep their 2027 first.
Post Comment