Inside the 2026 NFL Schedule: Shocking Playoff Roadblocks and Unmissable Matchups Revealed
The 2026 NFL schedule release has fans ready for some football. What are some of the marquee matchups? Which teams are expected to endure the most difficult schedules, and who hopes to benefit from the softer schedules in the league? We have the answers.
The strength of an NFL team’s schedule is not determinative, but it can go a long way.
There was not a better example last season than the New England Patriots, whose opponents won a league-low 91 regular-season games against 147 losses (a mere .391 opponent win percentage). Did it help the Patriots, en route to a 14-3 record and a Super Bowl appearance, that most of the teams they played were mediocre or worse? Yeah, probably.
We’ve already known each team’s home and away opponents for months, but we now have the complete 2026 NFL schedule after the league released it Thursday night.
Here’s how every team in the league stacks up based on its opponentsâ winning percentage from 2025 â the highest on down â with additional Opta metrics such as the EVE (efficiency versus expected) model and TRACR (Team Rating Adjusted for Conference and Roster) rankings.
Additionally with the 2026 NFL schedule, we’ve picked out a highlight or two with every team.
1. Chicago Bears (Opponent Win%: .550)
- Post-NFL Draft Rating: 10.51 (16th)
- 2025 Record: 11-6
- 2025 EVE Rank: 23rd
- 2025 TRACR Rank: 20th
The Highlights: Letâs not overcomplicate it: The Bears slayed some Green Bay demons last season but remain stuck on three wins at Lambeau Field since 2008. Their latest trip to that hallowed ground is in Week 5, and a win would go a long way toward entrenching the Bears in the NFC North.
2. Miami Dolphins (Opponent Win%: .542)
- Post-NFL Draft Rating: 7.84 (28th)
- 2025 Record: 7-10
- 2025 EVE Rank: 19th
- 2025 TRACR Rank: 30th
The Highlights: On the one hand, it feels downright cruel to the Dolphins that they’d face this difficult of a schedule in a year in which the front office is, if not tanking, at least exploring the concept. The highlight here could come with the franchise being in position to draft Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning at No. 1 overall in the 2027 NFL Draft.
T-3. Arizona Cardinals (Opponent Win%: .538)
- Post-NFL Draft Rating: 9.36 (24th)
- 2025 Record: 3-14
- 2025 EVE Rank: 28th
- 2025 TRACR Rank: 24th
The Highlights: The Cardinals have a Week 17 home game against the Las Vegas Raiders that will be a fun running back showcase. Skeptics of first-round picks at the position can take note of the Cards’ No. 3 pick from 2026, Jeremiyah Love, facing 2025’s No. 6 selection Ashton Jeanty.
T-3. Green Bay Packers (Opponent Win%: .538)
- Post-NFL Draft Rating: 12.76 (4th)
- 2025 Record: 9-7-1
- 2025 EVE Rank: 7th
- 2025 TRACR Rank: 8th
The Highlights: How about the Packers visiting the Los Angeles Rams the night before Thanksgiving? Yes, the NFLâs first Thanksgiving Eve matchup on Nov. 25 could be one of the last handful of games in Matthew Stafford’s career, and it will be one of several brutal road tests this year for the Packersâ similarly crafty Jordan Love.
5. Kansas City Chiefs (Opponent Win%: .536)
- Post-NFL Draft Rating: 10.22 (18th)
- 2025 Record: 6-11
- 2025 EVE Rank: 16th
- 2025 TRACR Rank: 18th
The Highlights: No question, a âMonday Night Footballâ game against the Denver Broncos in Week 1 is a headliner. Patrick Mahomes would ideally be back on the field by that point, but either way, it will be a bit jarring to see the Chiefs playing the role of chaser in the AFC West rather than the typical leader everyone else is hunting.
6. New England Patriots (Opponent Win%: .531)
- Post-NFL Draft Rating: 12.18 (6th)
- 2025 Record: 14-3
- 2025 EVE Rank: 1st
- 2025 TRACR Rank: 6th
The Highlights: A Super Bowl rematch against the Seahawks in Seattle to open the entire NFL schedule (Sept. 9) leads the way, but the Patriots having an AFC championship game encore against the Broncos looms in Foxborough in Week 17, too.
7. Las Vegas Raiders (Opponent Win%: .529)
- Post-NFL Draft Rating: 8.76 (26th)
- 2025 Record: 3-14
- 2025 EVE Rank: 27th
- 2025 TRACR Rank: 29th
The Highlights: This one depends entirely on when No. 1 pick Fernando Mendoza makes his first start for the Raiders. If thatâs against the Dolphins in Week 1, thatâs the highlight of Vegasâ season. If Kirk Cousins is starting at that point, just hang tight. We wonât call it Fernandomania out of respect to the late, great Fernando Valenzuela. But the excitement around the new Raider will be a nice tonic amid another likely long season.
8. Buffalo Bills (Opponent Win%: .528)
- Post-NFL Draft Rating: 9.78 (21st)
- 2025 Record: 12-5
- 2025 EVE Rank: 6th
- 2025 TRACR Rank: 11th
The Highlights: Week 2 against the Detroit Lions (a Thursday night matchup) marks the first official game at Highmark Stadium, the glistening new venue the Bills have wanted for decades. Theyâre working on the longest active streak of playoff appearances at seven (since 2019).
9. Los Angeles Chargers (Opponent Win%: .522)
- Post-NFL Draft Rating: 10.45 (17th)
- 2025 Record: 11-6
- 2025 EVE Rank: 15th
- 2025 TRACR Rank: 17th
The Highlights: At some point, Chargers QB Justin Herbert will either take the next step â or he wonât. A visit to Seattle in Week 4 to face that stifling, world championship defense could be revealing. So could a Week 12 home date with the Patriots, who utterly destroyed Herbert in the playoffs last season (his offensive line stunk in that game, too, but the QB didnât cover himself in glory).
10. Carolina Panthers (Opponent Win%: .521)
- Post-NFL Draft Rating: 11.40 (12th)
- 2025 Record: 8-9
- 2025 EVE Rank: 24th
- 2025 TRACR Rank: 12th
The Highlights: The Panthers won the NFC South at 8-9 last year, earning the tiebreaker after sharing the same record with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons. Any of the six games between those three teams could, nominally speaking, be one of the more important moments of the NFL season. Donât miss it! Or do.
11. Minnesota Vikings (Opponent Win%: .519)
- Post-NFL Draft Rating: 10.20 (19th)
- 2025 Record: 9-8
- 2025 EVE Rank: 11th
- 2025 TRACR Rank: 28th
The Highlights: The Vikings will be playing a de-facto road game in Mexico City on Nov. 22 against the San Francisco 49ers. Estadio Banorte should be a rocking scene for that âSunday Night Footballâ clash. A fun game is guessing who will be starting at quarterback for Minnesota by that point of the season. Kyler Murray probably, but will JJ McCarthy still be around? Max Brosmer? Do we hear a Carson Wentz?
12. New York Jets (Opponent Win%: .517)
- Post-NFL Draft Rating: 6.30 (30th)
- 2025 Record: 3-14
- 2025 EVE Rank: 30th
- 2025 TRACR Rank: 32nd
The Highlights: Prediction: The Jets will get their first interception in Week 1 at the Tennessee Titans. That will have to count as a highlight. Theyâll also host the Bills in Week 10 in a fun clash against a New York team that actually plays in the state of New York.
13. Los Angeles Rams (Opponent Win%: .516)
- Post-NFL Draft Rating: 16.63 (1st)
- 2025 Record: 12-5
- 2025 EVE Rank: 3rd
- 2025 TRACR Rank: 3rd
The Highlights: You have to expect the Rams to make the playoffs, but one never knows. And if they donât, that could set up Week 18 against the Seahawks to be Staffordâs final game, as the QB continues in a year-to-year holding pattern. Watching as much Stafford football as possible is practical because the NFC West will have a lot of marquee intra-division contests.
14. Seattle Seahawks (Opponent Win%: .514)
- Post-NFL Draft Rating: 10.56 (15th)
- 2025 Record: 14-3
- 2025 EVE Rank: 2nd
- 2025 TRACR Rank: 10th
The Highlights: The opener of the NFL schedule is also the Super Bowl championsâ banner-raising night, Wednesday of Week 1 against the Patriots on NBC. A visit to the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 15 is probably the best on-paper matchup of the regular season. The Seahawks also play Denver, Kansas City and the Chargers. This team is great but could ring up a fairly high loss total anyway because of the schedule.
15. Denver Broncos (Opponent Win%: .512)
- Post-NFL Draft Rating: 12.06 (8th)
- 2025 Record: 14-3
- 2025 EVE Rank: 12th
- 2025 TRACR Rank: 23rd
The Highlights: The games against the Chiefs in Weeks 1 and 8 will be significant both narratively and in the AFC West standings. Also, Buffalo visits in Week 16, hoping to avenge a playoff loss to the Broncos in which Bills QB Josh Allen alternated between looking like Superman and making some of the worst plays of his career.
16. Washington Commanders (Opponent Win%: .502)
- Post-NFL Draft Rating: 8.87 (25th)
- 2025 Record: 5-12
- 2025 EVE Rank: 25th
- 2025 TRACR Rank: 21st
The Highlights: A date with the Indianapolis Colts in London in Week 4 could be a better showcase for the sport than several of the NFLâs recent international games (what better diplomatic offering than Daniel Jones?). A home game against Seattle one week earlier on Sept. 24 will be a proving ground for Commanders QB Jayden Daniels, whoâs trying to be more like his rookie self than his sophomore self.
17. New York Giants (Opponent Win%: .498)
- Post-NFL Draft Rating: 5.75 (31st)
- 2025 Record: 4-13
- 2025 EVE Rank: 21st
- 2025 TRACR Rank: 26th
The Highlights: As over-subjected as national TV audiences are to NFC East games, the Week 1 SNF home date with the Cowboys will be a significant tone-setter for the Giants. Things could spiral quickly for a team that traded nose tackle Dexter Lawrence to the Cincinnati Bengals and stacks up terribly in our models. But a nice, vibe-shifting win to kick off coach John Harbaughâs first season and QB Jaxson Dartâs second could go a long way.
18. San Francisco 49ers (Opponent Win%: .497)
- Post-NFL Draft Rating: 11.15 (13th)
- 2025 Record: 12-5
- 2025 EVE Rank: 13th
- 2025 TRACR Rank: 22nd
The Highlights: The Mexico City game against the Vikings in Week 11 isnât even San Franciscoâs first international outing of the year. The 49ers first have a Week 1 clash with the Rams at the Melbourne Cricket Ground to get everyoneâs blood pressure up quickly.
19. Pittsburgh Steelers (Opponent Win%: .495)
- Post-NFL Draft Rating: 11.86 (9th)
- 2025 Record: 10-7
- 2025 EVE Rank: 22nd
- 2025 TRACR Rank: 15th
The Highlights: When the Steelers play Baltimore on Dec. 20, it will be the teamsâ first matchup since 2008 that does not pit Mike Tomlin against John Harbaugh. Something tells us Mike McCarthy will not stick around as long as Tomlin did, but beating Jesse Minter and the Ravens would be huge in his first season with the Steelers. Oh, they play the Ravens again just three weeks later in Week 18.
20. Dallas Cowboys (Opponent Win%: .493)
- Post-NFL Draft Rating: 12.09 (7th)
- 2025 Record: 7-9-1
- 2025 EVE Rank: 20th
- 2025 TRACR Rank: 4th
The Highlights: The Week 1 trip to the Meadowlands to face the Giants will dictate the tenor of conversation around the Cowboys in the early going. A trip to Brazil and the capital of Rio de Janeiro to play the Ravens two weeks later will make for a more compelling football game, though. And then thereâs a Monday night game at Seattle in Week 13.
21. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Opponent Win%: .491)
- Post-NFL Draft Rating: 11.75 (10th)
- 2025 Record: 8-9
- 2025 EVE Rank: 26th
- 2025 TRACR Rank: 13th
The Highlights: Of all the games that could decide the NFC South â and there are a lot of them given the mediocre parity of the division â Week 18 at the New Orleans Saints may have the best chance to be decisive. A visit to Detroit in Week 11 will present the latest rematch of a tough playoff loss at the end of the 2023 season. We mention this because Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield has always had the memory of an elephant. These teams will soon have played at least five times since October 2023. Familiarity, contempt â¦
22. Jacksonville Jaguars (Opponent Win%: .490)
- Post-NFL Draft Rating: 11.67 (11th)
- 2025 Record: 13-4
- 2025 EVE Rank: 5th
- 2025 TRACR Rank: 9th
The Highlights: The Jaguars are good enough now that their international games not only arenât an insult to foreign countries but, this year, are some of the more fun matchups of the NFL schedule. A back-to-back in London with the Eagles (Week 5) and Houston Texans (Week 6) will be one of the toughest stretches any team faces all season, especially given the geography of it all.
23. Philadelphia Eagles (Opponent Win%: .481)
- Post-NFL Draft Rating: 14.84 (2nd)
- 2025 Record: 11-6
- 2025 EVE Rank: 14th
- 2025 TRACR Rank: 2nd
The Highlights: That home game against Seattle on Dec. 17 is a huge deal for the Eagles. And how about a visit to the 49ers in Week 17? But the Steelers also visit in Week 11 to try to snap one of the more perplexing streaks in sports: an 0-11 run on the other side of Pennsylvania that dates back to the teamâs last win there ⦠in 1965.
24. Baltimore Ravens (Opponent Win%: .479)
- Post-NFL Draft Rating: 9.37 (23rd)
- 2025 Record: 8-9
- 2025 EVE Rank: 4th
- 2025 TRACR Rank: 7th
The Highlights: Itâll be jarring to see a non-Harbaugh lead the Ravens in Week 1 (at least they face Jim Harbaugh and the Chargers in Baltimore in Week 10). A visit to the Billsâ new stadium in Week 8 will be fun, too, even if not quite as fun as the absurd come-from-ahead loss the Ravens took there at the start of last season.
25. Tennessee Titans (Opponent Win%: .476)
- Post-NFL Draft Rating: 5.43 (32nd)
- 2025 Record: 3-14
- 2025 EVE Rank: 32nd
- 2025 TRACR Rank: 27th
The Highlights: It would be a joy to see Cam Ward take a big step forward in his second season after the Titans drafted him No. 1 overall. If thereâs one day thatâs likeliest to happen, itâs when the Titans host the Jets to open their season on Sept. 13.
26. Houston Texans (Opponent Win%: .474)
- Post-NFL Draft Rating: 12.56 (5th)
- 2025 Record: 12-5
- 2025 EVE Rank: 9th
- 2025 TRACR Rank: 14th
The Highlights: There are very few unit-on-unit matchups that offer more strength against strength than the Texasâ defensive front taking on the Eaglesâ offensive line on Christmas Eve in Philadelphia. Also fun: The Texans facing the Bills (Week 1 at home) and Packers (Week 17 on the road).Â
27. Detroit Lions (Opponent Win%: .467)
- Post-NFL Draft Rating: 13.52 (3rd)
- 2025 Record: 9-8
- 2025 EVE Rank: 8th
- 2025 TRACR Rank: 1st
The Highlights: Our models expect the Lions to be really good this year after a weird (and injury-aided) step backward in 2025. A Week 2 Thursday nighter in Buffalo will be a great test for both teams, as will be a game in Munich against the Patriots in Week 10.
T-28. Atlanta Falcons (Opponent Win%: .465)
- Post-NFL Draft Rating: 7.52 (29th)
- 2025 Record: 8-9
- 2025 EVE Rank: 17th
- 2025 TRACR Rank: 5th
The Highlights: Setting-wise, a Nov. 8 date with the Bengals at Madridâs Santiago Bernabéu leads the slate here. Actually, maybe it doesnât, as the Falcons go to Lambeau to play the Packers on Sept. 24.
T-28. Indianapolis Colts (Opponent Win%: .465)
- Post-NFL Draft Rating: 8.23 (27th)
- 2025 Record: 8-9
- 2025 EVE Rank: 10th
- 2025 TRACR Rank: 25th
The Highlights: The Colts are not tanking, but we also donât think theyâre very good, and paying Daniel Jones (whoâs coming off a major injury) a $60 million guarantee on a two-year deal suggests a desire to be competitive right now. That means at least splitting four games with the Texans and Jaguars and probably sweeping the Titans to stay solvent in the AFC South.
30. Cincinnati Bengals (Opponent Win%: .450)
- Post-NFL Draft Rating: 10.78 (14th)
- 2025 Record: 6-11
- 2025 EVE Rank: 31st
- 2025 TRACR Rank: 16th
The Highlights: Cincinnati gave up a high first-round pick to get one of the leagueâs great defensive tackles in Dexter Lawrence. Thereâs really no better test of how well thatâs going than the teamâs standard two games against the Ravens, the first of those coming on the road in Week 7. Of course, the Bengals also really need the medical gods to let Joe Burrow and his wide receivers play a full season together.
31. New Orleans Saints (Opponent Win%: .434)
- Post-NFL Draft Rating: 9.89 (20th)
- 2025 Record: 6-11
- 2025 EVE Rank: 18th
- 2025 TRACR Rank: 19th
The Highlights: Is this schedule bad enough that roughly the 20th-best team in the league could sneak into the playoffs out of a terrible division? It might be, yeah â itâs at least on the table. You have to love that the team from New Orleans is taking part in a Week 7 game in Paris against the Steelers. Thatâs also a good measuring-stick game against the leagueâs ultimate wild-card fodder. If the Saints can beat Pittsburgh, it doesnât mean a ton but does suggest they could be a No. 7 seed. (Or, well, a No. 4.)
32. Cleveland Browns (Opponent Win%: .429)
- Post-NFL Draft Rating: 9.62 (22nd)
- 2025 Record: 5-12
- 2025 EVE Rank: 29th
- 2025 TRACR Rank: 31st
The Highlights: The Browns get to skip all of the leagueâs anticipated marquee teams. Their highlight just may be Week 18 of the NFL schedule at the Bengals because itâs the last possible game in which the Browns will have Deshaun Watson on their roster. It will mark a merciful ending to the worst contract tenure in football history.
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The post 2026 NFL Schedule: Highlights, Takeaways and Teams With the Hardest Playoff Paths appeared first on Opta Analyst.
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