MLB Playoff Race Shockers: Unexpected Contenders Emerge at Memorial Day Turning Point
A check of the standings shows the season is going by form in some places, but there’s been the unexpected as well – both good and bad.
If the playoffs were beginning on Friday, the Texas Rangers would claim the sixth and final spot in the American League with a sub-.500 record (24-25). Such a scenario is unlikely – in fact, it’s never happened in a 162-game season – so it’s useful to project ahead to the potential changes.
The Opta projection model does just that by simulating the remainder of the season. It updates after every game by incorporating each team’s TRACR, win-loss record and strength of schedule. TRACR, or Team Rating Adjusted for Competition and Roster, measures a team’s effectiveness at producing and preventing runs to calculate how many runs per nine innings better or worse it is compared to the league-average club during the season.
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