Strategic_insights_into_kalshi_markets_and_forecasting_accuracy_today
Overconfidence bias is equally dangerous, leading traders to assign probabilities of 90% or 10% to events that are actually much more uncertain. In a binary market, the difference between a 90% probability and a 70% probability is significant in terms of risk-to-reward. By forcing themselves to express uncertainty through a range of possible outcomes rather than a single definitive prediction, traders can avoid the trap of extreme confidence and manage their bankrolls more effectively over the long term.
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