The Unseen Force Behind the 2025-26 NBA MVP Race That Shattered Expectations
When the complete body of work is considered for the 2025-26 season, the separation becomes clearer.
Using full regular-season data, our model identifies Gilgeous-Alexander as the most likely MVP, with a 45.1% probability. The Thunder point guard won the award for the first time last season on the way to leading an NBA championship season.
Jokic, the NBA MVP in 2021, ’22 and ’24, follows Gilgeous-Alexander at 24.4%. Wembanyama, already a unanimous winner of this season’s NBA Defensive Player of the Year award, sits at 8.6%.
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