What’s Really Behind the Shocking Drop in Referee Scoring Accuracy?
But free throws? That’s been the main driver of the scoring decline. Team trips to the charity stripe, according to pbpstats.com data, have fallen from 26.1 free throws per 100 possessions in October to 24.6 in November to 23.1 in December to finally 21.7 in January, representing a nearly 20% decline from October to January in free-throw rate.
The end result is games are seeing about eight points on average being wiped away in the month of January.
The betting community has tried to keep up with the sudden drop in scoring. Sportsbooks have lowered the expected point totals further and further trying to find footing. According to Odds Shark data, the bottom began to fall out on Jan. 1 when all five games cashed the under and then proceeded to have a run of unexpectedly low-scoring games. In the first 12 days in January, not a single night on the schedule saw more overs than unders on the game slate. Between Jan. 5 and Jan. 7, the results tilted way off-balance; there were a whopping 20 unders to just six overs.
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