The Surprising Stat That Could Change the Outcome of Every NBA Conference Finals Team

All this is to say that data is what ultimately defines the outcome of sports.

In the NBA playoffs, so much is occurring from a tactical perspective that it can be overwhelming. However, we can often use stats to explain why all the different pieces are moving the way they are.

As we dig deep into the data of the NBA conference finals, here’s one data point to monitor for each of the last four teams standing.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Key Stat to Monitor: Donovan Mitchell’s Points Per Game

The theory behind this Cavaliers team as a potential title contender is that shooting guard Donovan Mitchell is a great playoff performer – he’s seventh all time in playoff points per game – and he has the power to go blow-for-blow with any heavyweight in the NBA.

For Mitchell’s lofty standards, it’s been a down postseason, as his 25.6-point average is over two points below his career mark. More than that, he’s been wildly inconsistent – looking like one of the best players in the world one night, only to look like a poser the next (when he scores over 25 points, the Cavs are 5-1; when he doesn’t reach that threshold, they’re 3-5).

Their next opponent – the New York Knicks in the Eastern Conference finals – is even more formidable than the Detroit Pistons’ team that took the Cavaliers to a second consecutive seven-game series in the playoffs. It’s going to take the best version of Mitchell for the Cavs to pull off their second straight series upset.

Bonus stats to monitor: Dean Wade’s 3-point shooting and rebounding numbers. Wade has been one of the NBA’s best defenders against Knicks scorer Jalen Brunson this season. But for the Cavs to keep Wade on the court, he needs to hit open 3s, cause problems for the Knicks on the offensive glass, and keep them from creating second chances on the other end of the floor.

New York Knicks

Key Stat to Monitor: Karl-Anthony Towns’ Assists Per Game

The Knicks have been a different team while winning their last seven games against the Atlanta Hawks or Philadelphia 76ers by an average margin of victory of 26.4 points.

A big reason for this renaissance has been the decision to initiate more of their offense through delay actions with center Karl-Anthony Towns as the primary facilitator.

There are many reasons why this type of offense works so well, but the main ingredients are: Towns is a better passer at a standstill than while on the move, he’s too good of a shooter to leave open on the perimeter, too big and strong to be guarded by non-centers (meaning there’s no paint protector to anchor the middle), and the players who are usually involved in the off-ball sets they run around him (usually Brunson and one of the Knicks forwards) aren’t guarded by defenders who can switch without conceding a serious mismatch.