The Surprising Stat That Could Change the Outcome of Every NBA Conference Finals Team

This postseason, the Knicks are 7-0 when Towns posts at least six assists and have an offensive rating of 130.5 in those games, which is over seven points per 100 possessions higher than the next-best team in the playoffs.

Unlike the Knicks’ earlier playoff opponents, the Cavaliers can play two effective bigs at once – Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen – so they have a chance to slow down a Towns-centric attack. This idea is only theoretical, as we haven’t seen them do it yet.

Can Cleveland actually slow down New York’s new offense? And if the Cavs do, what happens to the Knicks’ overall offense?

Oklahoma City Thunder

Key Stat to Monitor: 3-Point Percentage

The notion that the NBA is a make-or-miss league has never been more true than it is right now for the Thunder.

In the opener of the Western Conference finals, the Spurs made it a point to take away the paint at all costs. As a result, Oklahoma City scored just 38 points there, or nearly 12 points below their postseason average in the paint (48.9, per NBA.com).

Notice the words “at all costs.” That’s because there’s no such thing as a perfect defense, and every time a team decides to take something away, it comes with a tradeoff. For the Spurs, they are sacrificing defense near the 3-point line to lay down the law at the rim (it’s also something the Thunder have been doing all season with their defense).

In Game 1, OKC shot a good, but not great 17 of 45 (37.8%) on 3s, and that included Alex Caruso’s unsustainable 8 for 14 from downtown. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Ajay Mitchell, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren – four of the Thunder’s five best players in offensive DRIP – and trade acquisition Jared McCain were a combined 6 for 18 on 3s (33.3%).

The Spurs are up 1-0 in the series, but it’s going to take a lights-out performance to beat the defending NBA champion Thunder.

San Antonio Spurs

Key Stat to Monitor: Turnover Percentage

The Thunder were No. 1 in the league in our defensive TRACR this season. A team doesn’t get to that level by being a one-hit wonder.

The Spurs have multiple strengths. They keep the ball in front of them (second in opponent effective field goal percentage). They keep opponents out of the paint (second in opponent points per game). Most of all, they speed up the opposing offense, forcing it to give up the ball before taking a shot (second in opponent turnover rate).

One of the main reasons the Spurs played them so well in the regular season – going 4-1 in those matchups – is their ability to maintain possession of the ball (fifth in turnover rate). The rate against the Thunder (13.5%) was basically the same as their season rate (13.3%).

In Game 1 of the Western Conference finals, the Spurs turned the ball over 21 times. They ended up winning 122-115 in two overtimes, but it took another incredible performance by Victor Wembanyama (41 points, including a Steph Curry-esque 3-pointer late in the first OT, and 24 rebounds) to do it.

Quite simply, the Spurs can’t keep giving the ball away if they’re going to win this series. (See our win probabilities that update throughout the NBA playoffs)